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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
954 am EDT Friday Jul 25 2014

the surface ridge remains parked over the south-central Florida
Peninsula early this morning with light southeast to south wind
flow in place from around Tampa Bay southward...becoming more
southeast to the north. Similar to the past several days...showers
and a few thunderstorms over the Gulf waters have translated over
land areas from around Venice northward through the Nature Coast
and this should continue through the morning. Once the sea breeze
circulation initiates...the best rain chances will translate
inland with only isolated rain chances along the coast for this
afternoon. Made minor adjustments to probability of precipitation for today...but no other
changes planned as the rest of the forecast remains on track.


VFR conditions will prevail. The best chance for any restrictions
at sites close to the coast will be this morning...but will handle
with tempos if needed. The best rain chances will shift more
toward klal this afternoon...with isolated chances along the
coast. Any thunderstorms that move over terminals could cause
brief MVFR or IFR conditions.


high pressure will remain over the south Central Peninsula and
adjacent Gulf waters today through the upcoming weekend. The high
will sink south to the Florida Straits early next week as a frontal
boundary sinks south into the northern Gulf waters. Winds and seas
will remain well below headline criteria through the weekend.


Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 78 92 79 / 20 20 30 20
fmy 93 76 93 77 / 40 20 60 20
gif 92 75 95 76 / 50 20 60 20
srq 91 77 91 79 / 20 20 30 20
bkv 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 20
spg 90 80 91 80 / 20 20 30 20


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


Update/aviation/fire weather...05/Carlisle
decision support...21/jelsema

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