Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
934 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015
Short term (rest of tonight)...
aloft - a couple of lows were well west...one offshore British
Columbia and the other over the lower Colorado River valley. A
short wave trough reached from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes.
Ridging was across Gulf coastal/southeastern states with a
weakness in the central Gulf and south of Florida.
Surface - a frontal boundary stretched down the Saint Lawrence
valley across the lower Great Lakes and through the middle-
Mississippi Valley to the central rockies. High pressure off the
middle-Atlantic coast ridged across the southeast U.S. And the Gulf
of Mexico. Weak troughing was across Cuba and the Bahamas.
The Atlantic high pressure and the trough over Cuba and the Bahamas
will dominate with NE and east winds...diminishing over night on
land. The afternoon clouds and isolated sprinkles are ending with
a dry and mostly clear remainder of the night.
05/00z-06/00z. VFR expected overnight and into Tuesday...although
there will be increasing clouds with vicinity rain showers starting in the
morning for the south and early afternoon for the north. The far
south will have the highest odds of MVFR cigs/vsby. Winds
easterly...gusty this evening but diminishing then picking back up
an easterly surge of wind will create Small Craft Advisory
conditions over the coastal waters overnight...with exercise
caution conditions on Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor in the
evening. Winds will gradually diminish early Tuesday morning. An
area of low pressure will develop east of Florida late Tuesday and
Tuesday night and lift north through Thursday. As the low pressure
system exits the region...the gradient over the coastal waters
will weaken with winds and seas subsiding late in the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 68 86 69 86 / 0 20 10 50
fmy 67 85 67 88 / 10 50 30 50
gif 64 84 66 87 / 0 20 20 50
srq 66 86 67 86 / 0 20 20 50
bkv 60 85 63 87 / 0 20 10 50
spg 71 83 71 85 / 0 20 10 50
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Tuesday for coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-waters from Bonita Beach
to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Englewood
to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.