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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
849 PM EDT sun Jul 27 2014

the few showers/storms that did form this afternoon have all but
dissipated this evening. 00z ktbw radiosonde observation continued to show deep
westerly flow through around 400mb across the area. The sounding
also revealed a much drier atmosphere aloft compared to this
morning. In fact...the precipitable water value of 1.46 inches is nearly 2 Standard
deviations below normal for late July which would explain the lack
of any significant shower/storm activity across the area.

No major changes to the current forecast thinking. However did
remove any mention of probability of precipitation for the remainder of the evening given
current radar trends. Still think that some isolated to scattered
showers may develop during the early morning hours offshore before
pushing inland near daybreak Monday. Temperatures will remain warm
overnight as onshore flow will keep the area in a very warm...muggy
air mass.

Tomorrow looks to be similar to today. Main concern tomorrow will be
the heat as temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s. That
combined with middle 70s dewpoints will allow for heat indicies to
approach 105 in some areas.


VFR conditions are generally expected through the taf forecast
period. Can not rule out an isolated shower or storm affecting the
terminals Monday morning...but probability of occurrence is too low
to carry anything other than vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time.


Atlantic high pressure continues over the eastern Gulf waters this
afternoon. A frontal boundary will near the northern Gulf waters
late Monday into Tuesday. There will be an increase in winds and
waves as the frontal gradient tightens. Hi-res guidance shows
increasing likelihood of 15-20 knots winds over the northern coastal
waters so will add mention of scec conditions for that area on


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 40
fmy 77 92 77 92 / 20 30 10 30
gif 76 94 76 93 / 10 20 10 40
srq 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 10 40
bkv 74 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 50
spg 81 92 81 89 / 20 20 20 40


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


decision support...09/rude

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