Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
340 am EST Thursday Dec 5 2013
Short term (today - saturday)...
a broad upper level trough is currently sprawled over the western
half of the country while an upper level ridge continues to build
over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. At the
surface...a strong ridge over the western Atlantic extends across
the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico while a cold front
stalls out north of Florida. Through Friday and Saturday...the upper
level pattern will shift slightly to the east...allowing the surface
ridge to partially retreat into the Atlantic with winds easing up a
bit by Saturday.
Overall the weather each day during the short term period will be
pretty similar. The strength of the ridge will keep rain chances at
around 10 percent or less...and temperatures will run several
degrees above normal. Many sites may even approach record
temperatures. Patchy fog will continue to develop each evening and
remain through middle morning. Additionally...model guidance is
indicating that sea fog will be possible in the northeastern Gulf
along the Nature Coast.
Long term (saturday night-wednesday)...
middle/upper level ridge will be centered over the Bahamas at the
beginning of the period then gradually become suppressed south and
east as the broad trough over much of the Continental U.S. Shifts eastward and
weakens. At the surface...high pressure will ridge west from the
Atlantic across the region Saturday night through Monday night...
then the cold front that will have been stalled across the southeast
U.S. Will begin to move southward across the region late Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Moisture will deepen some ahead of the
boundary with a slight chance of showers across the north Monday
afternoon...then a chance across the Nature Coast Monday night and
Tuesday with a slight chance further south. The best chances of
precipitation will continue to spread southward with a chance across
the entire region on Wednesday. Overall at this time it does not
look like we will see a good push of cool dry air as the front
becomes parallel to the middle/upper level flow. Therefore...we could
end up with a few days of considerable clouds and low rain chances
during the middle to late portion of next week as an overrunning
pattern sets up.
Warm and rather humid weather will continue into Tuesday with
daytime highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Tuesday night into Wednesday some
of the cooler drier air is expected to move into the Nature Coast
with lows in the lower to middle 50s far north...while central and
southern portions of the area only fall into the lower and middle 60s.
Daytime highs on Wednesday are forecast to climb into the lower 70s
north to near 80 south.
some MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected early this morning if
then VFR conditions are expected to prevail from middle-morning through
surface high pressure ridging across the Florida Peninsula and
into the northeastern Gulf will keep southeast to south winds over
the coastal waters through the weekend...generally 15 knots or
less. Sea fog could be an issue over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico the next couple evenings through the morning hours.
humidity will stay well above critical thresholds through the
weekend. Patchy fog will develop each evening after
midnight...then burn off by middle morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 84 67 83 69 / 0 10 0 10
fmy 85 68 85 68 / 0 10 0 10
gif 84 64 84 67 / 0 10 0 10
srq 83 66 82 67 / 0 10 0 10
bkv 85 62 84 62 / 10 10 0 10
spg 83 69 81 69 / 0 10 0 10
Short term/marine/fire weather...18/Fleming