Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
443 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term (today-saturday)...
drier air will begin moving into the area today and into tonight
as an upper level trough swings north of the area and toward the
eastern Seaboard by Friday morning. This is evidenced by precipitable water
values forecast to drop to around an inch or less by early Friday
morning. Overall...winds will be out of the northwest and
convection will be limited this afternoon compared with the past
several days...with just isolated thunderstorms expected over the
eastern half of the area. Temperatures this afternoon will top out
near normal values.
Friday through Saturday...
a weakening cold front will shift southward into the region on
Friday...and push south of the forecast area Friday night as strong
high pressure builds north of the state. High pressure will then
hold in place across the area on Saturday. The weakening frontal
boundary should provide enough of an increase in deep layer moisture
to result in some late afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms generally south of I-4 and east of I-75 on Friday...so
will carry slight chance/low chance probability of precipitation to account for this. A much
drier airmass aloft will build into the region on Saturday...and
this should result in rain free conditions across the forecast
area.
Long term (saturday night-thursday)...
model solutions remain in good agreement showing high pressure ridge
axis remaining north of the forecast area...keeping an easterly
boundary layer flow in place. Moisture will remain limited through
Monday night...with rain free conditions expected. Boundary layer
moisture will increase slightly during the middle week time frame...so
will carry slight chance probability of precipitation for portions of the area Tuesday
through Thursday for afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
Aviation...
some patchy fog with local MVFR/IFR visibilities will continue to
develop this morning with the best chances over inland and
southern sites. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
&&
Marine...
winds and seas will remain rather light through today and
tonight. A weakening cold front will slide southward through the
waters Friday and Friday night...with strong high pressure then
building north of the state over the weekend into early next week.
Elevated easterly flow will likely result in a need for exercise
caution or advisory headlines for much of the marine area during
the evening and overnight hours each day through the period.
&&
Fire weather...
no concerns for this afternoon as relative humidity values are
expected to remain above critical levels. A weakening cold front
will push southward through the area on Friday with a much drier
airmass moving into the region over the weekend and into early
next week. Humidity levels will drop to critical or near critical
levels each afternoon through the period away from the immediate
coast. Depending on the strength of the pressure gradient...red
flag conditions may be possible across portions of the area over
the Holiday weekend.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 91 71 91 72 / 0 10 10 10
gif 91 71 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
srq 85 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 89 64 91 63 / 10 0 10 0
spg 87 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&
$$
Carlisle/jelsema
