Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
935 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015
..heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible...
Update... abundant moisture is beginning to stream over the
Central Peninsula thanks to the lingering upper level low over
the Panhandle and the remnants of Erika over the Florida Straits. At
the moment rainfall is confined to the southern and eastern
portions of the state but hi res guidance is showing the rain
spreading into west central and southwest Florida by the early
afternoon hours. Given the potential for widespread rainfall
today... will maintain the 1 to 3 inch areal average rainfall
totals... with locally higher amounts possible. A Flood Watch will
remain in effect through tomorrow for the majority of the County Warning Area.
Will decide by the afternoon package if the watch needs to be
extended for the remainder of the northern zones.
Main impact today will be the flood potential. Given the highly
saturated soils and several rivers at or near flood stage it will
not take long for localized flooding to occur near streams or in
Aviation...VFR currently observed at the moment with the
exception to lal where lingering MVFR ceilings are present. Widespread
rainfall is expected to settle over the region by the early/middle
afternoon hours. Expect periods of IFR to LIFR conditions if
showers/storms settle over a taf sites but MVFR should generally
prevail with extended pockets of VFR.
Marine...the remnants of Erika will continue spread northward
today pushing in excess tropical moisture. Rainfall is expected
today but the best coverage should remain near the coast and
further inland. Winds are expected to stay below headline and
hazard criteria today as the flow gradually veers more southerly
through tomorrow as the tropical waves lifts north.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 76 88 77 / 90 60 80 60
fmy 88 75 89 76 / 90 60 80 60
gif 89 74 88 74 / 90 60 80 50
srq 89 75 88 77 / 90 60 80 70
bkv 89 73 88 74 / 90 60 80 50
spg 89 77 88 78 / 90 60 80 60
Florida...Flood Watch through Monday evening for coastal Charlotte-
coastal Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Pasco-coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-
Hardee-Highlands-inland Charlotte-inland Hernando-
inland Hillsborough-inland Lee-inland Manatee-inland