Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
930 am EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

ktbw 12z sounding shows another very dry atmospheric
for a cloud deck around 7000-8000 feet. The effect of strong middle level
ridging is evidenced by a subsidence inversion around 600mb. With
this dry and very stable environment...rain chances will once
again be very minimal today. The exception will be over
southwest Florida...where moisture is slightly higher...and a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop. Otherwise...look
for another warm afternoon...with temperatures rising into the middle
90s...and northeast flow bringing the warm temperatures all the
way to the coast. By late in the afternoon...a West Coast sea
breeze should develop and bring some relief to areas just inland
of the beaches.

A few minor adjustments were made to the point and click forecast
for today...but overall the forecast looks on track for another
warm and dry day across the area.


mostly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible near
krsw...kfmy...and kpgd late this afternoon...but predictability
is not high enough to include mention in the tafs at this time.


winds will diminish slightly but still be up in the 10 to 15 miles per hour
range today and directions become both easterly and northeasterly as
the pressure gradient from Cristobal is slow to relax. Evening
surges will have to be watched and will become near exercise caution
criteria. Plenty of sunshine as another mostly dry day over the
water with showers and or thunderstorms unlikely.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 94 77 93 78 / 10 10 20 20
fmy 95 76 93 76 / 20 20 60 30
gif 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 20 20
srq 92 75 92 77 / 10 10 40 30
bkv 94 70 95 73 / 10 10 20 20
spg 94 80 93 81 / 10 10 30 30


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.



Update/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming
decision support...69/close

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations