Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
848 PM EDT sun Mar 16 2014
evening radar and satellite imagery show a seemingly stationary
band of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico
and Florida Panhandle. Though this line has not made significant
progress in moving towards Levy County and the northern boundary
of the forecast area...short and medium range models are in good
agreement that as the upper level trough begins to swing
through...the associated surface front will likewise push
southeast. Convection is forecasted to reach Levy County around
midnight...and push through the Nature Coast overnight.
The forecast looks on track with the main band of storms moving
through the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor from middle
morning through early afternoon...and expanding through southwest
Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. A significant
portion of the forecast area remains in a slight risk
Monday...with the greatest threat of strong storms from late
morning into the evening hours. Heavy rainfall and local
flooding...strong gusty winds...and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts
remain the primary concerns. Additionally...winds will remain
breezy south of the front and will turn more onshore
tonight...continuing the risk of rip currents through at least
The zone forecast will be resent shortly with updated headlines.
VFR conditions expected through most of the night. Increasing wind
fields will lead to low level wind shear at most taf sites overnight with the
longest durations expected at ktpa...kpie...klal. Some MVFR ceilings
will likely develop around 10z at the northern terminals as a cold
front approaches. A large area of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain is expected to progress
from northwest to southeast through the region on Monday...impacting
the northern terminals by late morning and the southern terminals by
late afternoon. Breezy conditions expected at most taf sites again
on Monday as well.
gusty winds are beginning to subside over the Gulf waters and
around the Tampa Bay...with the Small Craft Advisory looking on
track to expire at 10 PM this evening. Even after the advisory
ends...the Gulf waters will carry small craft exercise caution
headlines tonight...and over the southern marine zones on Monday.
A band of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf will
spread through the northern coastal waters tonight...and continue
expanding through the Tampa Bay region by middle morning Monday...and
through the southwest Florida coastal waters Monday afternoon.
Showers and storms will continue through Tuesday
afternoon...before high pressure begins to build in through the
second half of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 70 76 65 74 / 50 90 80 30
fmy 70 84 71 79 / 10 50 70 40
gif 67 81 66 76 / 30 70 80 40
srq 69 77 67 75 / 40 80 80 30
bkv 68 76 60 74 / 60 90 80 30
spg 69 76 66 73 / 50 90 80 30
Florida...rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to
Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tampa Bay waters-
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.