Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
253 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Short term (tonight - thursday)...
throughout the short term period...middle level ridging will build
into the Gulf Coast while a strong surface ridge remains sprawled
across the eastern Seaboard. On the southern edge of this surface
ridge...a tight pressure gradient will support breezy east-
northeast winds over the forecast area tonight and on
Thanksgiving...with gusts of up to 30 miles per hour possible again Thursday
afternoon. Another impact of these persistent east-northeast winds
will be to pull low level moisture off the Atlantic and into the
area. Temperatures and dew points have already rebounded from the
lower values felt during the early part of the week...and are
forecast to climb a bit higher on Thanksgiving...with highs
topping out a few degrees above normal. So far today...scattered
middle level clouds and light rain showers have been streaming across
the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic. This shower activity is
expected to taper off by shortly after sunset...though a few light
showers or sprinkles will still be possible over the interior
overnight. With a similar pattern setup Thursday...more light
showers spreading across the area will be possible once again to
go along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Long term (thursday night-wednesday)...
high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to ridge
across the state through the weekend. Somewhat breezy east/NE flow
will remain in place as moisture and temperatures gradually
increase. A few showers will be possible mainly inland early next
week. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A front
will then approach the area late Tuesday. Models are split with
the handling of this front...with the European model (ecmwf) moving it through the
area and building high pressure into the area behind it for
Wednesday...and the GFS stalling it just to the north of the
state. Have trended more toward the GFS for now keeping partly
cloudy conditions and warmer than normal temperatures.
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours under breezy
high pressure will hold north of the coastal waters through the
upcoming weekend...with breezy east-northeast winds continuing.
Wind speeds of 20-25 knots with seas of up to 6 feet...mostly
over the offshore waters...will trigger Small Craft Advisory
headlines through Friday morning. Winds will subside slightly by the
start of the weekend...but will remain at or near exercise caution
thresholds though Sunday.
breezy winds will lead to high dispersion indices through the rest
of the week. Otherwise...no significant fire weather concerns are
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 64 81 63 81 / 10 0 10 0
fmy 65 82 64 82 / 10 10 10 0
gif 62 80 62 80 / 10 10 10 10
srq 64 82 63 82 / 10 0 10 0
bkv 60 80 59 80 / 10 10 0 0
spg 66 79 66 79 / 10 0 10 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Friday evening for coastal
Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Friday for coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-waters from Bonita Beach
to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Englewood
to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...18/Fleming
long term/decision support...24/Hubbard