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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
932 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

For the morning update...
area of low pressure over North Florida creating a large area of
west to southwest boundary layer flow off the Gulf of Mexico with
strong coastal convergence ongoing along the West Coast of
Florida. Strong u/l diffluence over the warm waters of the eastern
Gulf of Mexico combined with very deep tropical moisture with pcpw
values of 2.25 to 2.40 inches...creating a very unstable
atmosphere which helped initiate a large mesoscale convective system to develop last
night over the eastern Gulf...which has been pushing onshore the
West Coast of Florida this morning with periods of very heavy
rain. Reports of 4 to 6 inches common across northwest
Hillsborough...northern Pinellas...and western Pasco counties. The
area of rain...locally heavy at times...will continue for the next
couple of hours. The mesoscale convective system is expected to gradually wind down this
afternoon with the precipitation shield gradually decreasing in
intensity with a large area of light rain likely to persist into
the afternoon.

Areal flood warnings in effect for portions of
Pasco...Pinellas...and Hillsborough counties through much of the
morning. These may need to be extended as flood waters will be
very slow to drain due to the saturated ground. The heavy rain
will also cause significant rises on area rivers with the Anclote
River at Elfers expected to rise to around 26.5 feet this evening.
The flooding on the Anclote River will be very similar to what
occurred with Tropical Storm Debby in 2012. Significant rises are
also expected on Cypress Creek.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 82 77 89 77 / 100 30 50 10
fmy 90 75 91 76 / 70 30 50 40
gif 86 75 90 75 / 80 30 50 40
srq 84 76 89 76 / 100 30 40 20
bkv 83 74 89 73 / 100 40 50 20
spg 82 78 89 78 / 100 30 40 10


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for coastal
Citrus-coastal Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal
Levy-coastal Pasco-inland Citrus-inland Hernando-
inland Hillsborough-inland Levy-inland Pasco-Pinellas.

High rip current risk until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for
coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
Florida out 20 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.



Update/aviation/fire weather...13/Oglesby
decision support...74/Wynn

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