Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
911 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Update...
clouds associated with the dry frontal boundary are now moving
through Sarasota...DeSoto...Charlotte...and Lee counties and will
clear all areas by noon. Cooler and drier air will filter in
behind the cold front...but there is some lag between the clouds
and the drier air. Dew point temperatures are in the 50s across
our region...but only in the 30s just to the north of Levy County.
These lower dew points will filter southward through the late
morning and early afternoon hours on gusty northerly winds.

The main concern during the next 24 hours will be for potentially
freezing temperatures in Levy County and borderline wind chill
issues north of Tampa tonight. The high center responsible for
this reinforcing shot of cooler air remains well north of the area
tonight...so we are not looking at an ideal setup for radiational
cooling. Sheltered areas of the Nature Coast could see
temperatures approach 32 degrees overnight...but think we will see
occasional mixing that will prevent any real durations of freezing
temperatures. Places that are not sheltered may see winds stay up
between 5 and 10 miles per hour...resulting in wind chill values between 30
and 35 before sunrise Sunday from Pasco County north to Levy
County. We will wait until the 12z model guidance arrives before
making any decisions on future warnings or advisories.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape so only minor tweaks were
made to reflect current conditions. The gridded forecast and point
and clicks on the web have been updated. The text zone forecasts
will be updated to remove mention of morning fog.

&&

Aviation...
any lingering low clouds and fog should be gone by 16z with clear
skies and gusty northerly winds through the rest of the day. No
fog is expected tonight.

&&

Marine...
winds have shifted to the north and are averaging between 15 and
20 knots with gusts as high as 25 knots well offshore. Current
small craft exercise caution headlines should suffice. Winds will
gradually veer around to an easterly direction by Sunday...then
southeasterly by Monday ahead of the next cold front. This front
should move through our waters on Tuesday...but winds behind this
front should also remain below 20 knots.

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Sunday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Sarasota.

Gulf waters...none.

&&

$$

Update/marine/aviation...jillson
decision support...Paxton

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations