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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
912 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015

morning satellite imagery is showing the effects of a middle level
trough swinging through the southeastern states...with a cluster
of thunderstorms moving through the lower Mississippi River valley
and towards the Florida Panhandle. The Florida Peninsula remains
largely clear at this time...but tropical moisture will ensure
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon as solar heating increases instability. The 12z ktbw
sounding is showing that the middle levels remain cool and are a bit
drier than previous some of the stronger storms
today will have the potential to produce hail and damaging wind

The going forecast looks on track...with thunderstorms beginning
to develop after 18z and peaking over the interior between 21 and
00z. No significant changes planned for the morning update.


MVFR visibility at kfmy and krsw due to smoke should disperse
through the morning as the surface heats up. VFR conditions will
then hold across the area until scattered to numerous
thunderstorms develop after around 18z...with brief periods of IFR
or LIFR conditions possible as storms pass individual terminals.
VFR conditions will then return by around 00z as storms dissipate.


high pressure over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and
generally easterly to southeasterly through the next several days.
Outside of localized thunderstorms...expect winds to remain less
than 15 knots with seas no more than 2 feet.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 92 78 91 78 / 40 20 50 30
fmy 93 75 93 76 / 50 20 50 20
gif 94 75 93 75 / 60 30 70 30
srq 91 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 20
bkv 94 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 30
spg 92 78 91 79 / 30 20 40 20


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


Update/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming
decision support...24/Hubbard

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