Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
845 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015
Short term (rest of tonight)...
an upper ridge continues across Florida tonight...reaching from the
Gulf to the Atlantic. At the surface - weak high pressure builds
into the Gulf as a trough slowly tracks east...across southern Georgia
and northern Florida. Limited afternoon convection has pushed east for
the most...with only a few storms in east Polk and East Lee
counties. Expect these to be gone in the next hour or so and will
update the forecast by 10 PM to reflect this. Otherwise the
forecasts are on track.
03/00z-04/00z. Limited late afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have shifted east
of the terminals on westerly sea breeze enhanced flow. The flow
weakens to light and variable but then increases slightly and
becomes west-SW and west Wednesday. This flow will again keep the best
odds of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain inland and will only have brief vicinity remarks at
lal and pgd/fmy/rsw Wednesday afternoon.
weak high pressure will remain across the waters through the end
of the week with light winds dominated by afternoon sea breezes.
This high will be reinforced from the north during the weekend
with prevailing winds veering but staying light enough for
afternoon sea breezes. Main hazard will be thunderstorms with
lightning and locally higher winds and seas.
several rivers are at or near flood stage due to heavy rainfall
over the past several weeks. These river are expected to remain at
those levels for the next few days.
Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams should
continue to monitor water levels and be ready to move to higher
ground should flooding be observed.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 40
fmy 77 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 40
gif 76 93 77 91 / 10 30 30 60
srq 77 89 79 90 / 10 10 10 30
bkv 74 91 74 91 / 10 20 20 40
spg 79 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 30