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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
913 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

a frontal boundary continues to linger over central Florida this
evening. Convection is on the down trend tonight...have updated
probability of precipitation and zones based off the latest guidance and observed trends.
Behind the frontal boundary...some drier air has moved into
northern Florida which should limit rain chances for much of the
northern waters and the Nature Coast overnight. Easterly flow
south of the boundary will build overnight. Most of the convection
overnight should remain offshore.


convection diminishing this evening...with the little activity
remaining moving back towards the coast. Mainly VFR...though some
overnight low ceilings could bring some sites to MVFR. Ceilings should
improve back to VFR after sunrise...though convection later in the
day could produce brief MVFR/IFR due to heavy rain.


a frontal boundary extending across the Florida Peninsula will stall
over the coastal waters producing scattered to numerous showers and
storms for the next few days. Winds will become east to northeast
overnight as the gradient tightens between the front over Florida
and high pressure to the north. Winds will be strongest in the
northern coastal zones with small craft exercise caution conditions
possible. The main hazard for now will be higher winds and seas in
the vicinity of thunderstorms through the week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 73 86 74 88 / 30 50 50 60
fmy 73 86 74 90 / 20 60 40 70
gif 72 86 73 89 / 30 60 30 50
srq 73 87 74 89 / 30 50 40 60
bkv 70 86 70 89 / 20 50 30 60
spg 76 85 76 88 / 30 50 50 50


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


decision support...57/McMichael

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