Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
238 PM EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Visible satellite loop showed Gulf stratocumulus from Sarasota to
south of Fort Myers quickly moving out of the area. Otherwise
sunny and cold with tem0peratures 55 to around 60.
Short term (tonight and thursday)...
will drop high surf advisory with the next forecast package at 4
Long wave trough across the eastern U.S. With dynamics well north
of forecast area. A small area of high pressure settles across
central Florida tonight with clear skies and light winds.
Overnight lows to be 12 to 20 degrees below normal. Freeze
warnings from Brooksville north with frost advisories in much of
Expect light winds on Thursday which will be a nice break from the
gusty winds the past several days. Will continue rip current risk
into Thursday afternoon due to westerly winds tonight and swells
Middle/long term (thursday night - wednesday)...
a progressive and amplified upper air pattern is expected across the
Continental U.S. During the middle and long term period. A large and deep upper
level trough over the eastern half of the U.S. At the start of the
period will shift eastward into the Atlantic later Friday into
Saturday with a zonal flow developing across the region on Sunday
and Monday. At the surface high pressure across the central Florida
Peninsula Thursday night will sink south on Friday as low pressure
develops off the middle Atlantic coast with a trailing cold front from
this low moving south through region late Friday night into Saturday.
Lack of moisture accompanying this front will preclude rain chances
with its passage with just slightly cooler air expected in its wake.
During Sunday and Monday zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure
along the eastern Seaboard will support dry weather across the
entire forecast area with partly cloudy skies expected. A northeast
to easterly wind flow around the high will help to modify the cool
dry air mass with temperatures rebounding back to near seasonal
norms during Monday and Tuesday.
During Monday night into Tuesday models show a short wave trough
moving across the southeastern states with an area of low pressure
developing somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast or over the
southeastern states. Model differences continue with regards to the
timing/intensity and location and movement of this storm system...so
will keep rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range during this
time frame for now given the differences noted in the European model (ecmwf) and GFS
and wait to see it better continuity develops among the models in
the coming days. Based on current model trends and timing drier and
cooler weather should return to the forecast area later Tuesday into
Wednesday as the aforementioned storm system lifts out to the
northeast and surface high pressure builds in over the Northern
Peninsula in its wake. After some near normal temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday temperatures will again fall back to below normal on
VFR through period thanks to high pressure.
seas offshore 6 to 8 feet so will extend Small Craft Advisory for
dangerous seas until 10 PM this evening. High pressure dominates
into the weekend. A dry cold front passes through the waters
Saturday night. A large area of high pressure will cover the
eastern third of the nation and Gulf of Mexico into next week.
afternoon humidities to increase above 35 percent for the rest of
the week and dispersions dropping to more manageable levels. Cool
air and high fuel moisture. No concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 41 61 51 70 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 42 65 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
gif 37 62 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
srq 41 61 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 32 61 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
spg 46 61 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
High surf advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
High rip current risk through Thursday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am EST Thursday for coastal
Citrus-coastal Hernando-coastal Levy-inland Citrus-
inland Hernando-inland Levy-Sumter.
Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EST Thursday for coastal
inland Manatee-inland Pasco-inland Sarasota-Polk.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM EST
this evening for coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Englewood
to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60
Short term/aviation/fire weather...72/Noah