Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
321 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term (today-sunday)...
ideal weather for outdoor activities this weekend as dry mild
airmass settles over the region. Progressive u/l pattern across
the Continental U.S. Through the weekend. Main u/l flow will remain across
the northern tier of the U.S. With a strong u/l disturbance moving
through the Great Lakes and northeast over the weekend...with the
next system moving across the Pacific northwest and northern
rockies. An u/L Ridge will be located over the Southern Plains
today with a ridge axis extending north through the plains. The
ridge will build east over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida on
Sunday with increasing subsidence over the forecast area...while a
strong southern stream short wave off the East Coast of Florida gradually
lifts east and becomes absorbed by the northern stream trough
moving off the East Coast. At the surface...high pressure over the
Mississippi Valley will settle over the southeast U.S. And Florida
through the weekend.
Deep layer dry air over the forecast area will lead to
mostly clear skies through the weekend with dew points in the middle
40s north to lower 50s south. High temperatures each day will be a
mild 80 to the lower 80s with low relative humidity. Ideal conditions
for radiational cooling at night under clear skies and light winds
will lead to considerable spread in overnight lows from north to
south as well as near the coast to over the interior. Lows will run
in the middle 40s north...lower 50s central...and around 60 south. The
radiational cooling may allow patchy late night/early morning fog to
develop with the best chance across the Nature Coast.
Long term (sunday night - friday)...
middle/low level high pressure will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico
and lower Mississippi River valley Sunday night...with middle level
ridging extending north towards the western Great Lakes. At the
surface...broad high pressure will be sprawled across the Ohio River
valley and southeastern Continental U.S. And Gulf of Mexico...setting up fair
and dry conditions to start the work week across the forecast area.
During the first half of the week...the middle level ridging and
surface high pressure will shift to the east...setting up easterly
flow across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures will increase back
into the middle to upper 80s...and dew points will gradually increase
to the low to upper 60s by midweek...bringing a warm and humid
airmass back to the region. Meanwhile...a strong upper level trough
will develop over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region...with an
associated surface low dragging a cold front in towards the Florida
Panhandle by Wednesday evening. As the surface low pulls away into
eastern Canada...the cold front will lose momentum and will struggle
to make it into the northern Florida Peninsula on Friday...but
should be sufficient to increase rain chances on Friday...mostly
north of the Interstate 4 corridor...as well as suppress high
temperatures by a couple of degrees. Wind speeds will also begin to
pick up Friday as the pressure gradient tightens along the frontal
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours under
mostly clear skies.
clear skies with winds 15 knots or less will create good
conditions for boating over the weekend. High pressure will hold
over the waters through the middle of next week with winds 15 knots
or less and seas less than 4 feet.
relative humidity values will drop below 35 percent
this afternoon mainly across the northern and central forecast
area...and below 35 percent over much of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon. However erc values are expected to remain below critical
levels to meet red flag warning criteria.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 80 59 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 83 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
gif 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
srq 81 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 80 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
spg 79 69 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...13/Oglesby