Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
341 PM EDT Friday may 29 2015
Short term /today-Saturday/...
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern and
interior portions of the state this afternoon. Activity should
continue to move westward towards the pinned Gulf Coast sea
breeze. Convective activity should peak along the Gulf Coast later
this afternoon into the evening...particularly in southwest
Florida...before pushing offshore for the evening and overnight.
Tonight should be a typical late Spring/early Summer evening for
much of west central and southwest Florida...warm temperatures
with decreasing rain chances. Some portions of Lee County around
a brush fire near Southwest Florida International Airport could
see smoke in the area overnight. With the sun setting and the
inversion returning...any smoke remaining overnight will come
closer to the ground and could potentially restrict visibility in
the area. This will be have to be monitored.
For tomorrow...increasing moisture will lead to slightly better
chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The
easterly flow will continue to pin the sea breeze along the Gulf
Coast. Temperatures should remain similar to the last few days as
the warm and moistening trend continues.
Long term /Saturday night-Friday/...
a deepening upper level trough is expected to dig into the
northern Gulf for the start of the week. GFS and European model (ecmwf) depict this
feature with the GFS showing a cutoff low setting up over la. This
feature will be stubborn to lift out of the area and is expected
to linger over the northern Gulf through the majority of the
period. At the surface high pressure will continue to ridge across
the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico but this ridge
will be forced north by middle week as a weak area of low pressure is
expected to develop out of the Caribbean. Deeper tropical moisture
will gradually establish over the region as the surface ridge
shifts north. Expecting scattered to numerous showers each day
with the focus for enhanced coverage along the sea breeze
collisions. Main challenge for the upcoming week will be the
placement of the surface. If models trend the path more eastward
rain chances could be limited given the displacement of the
moisture surge. Given the trends in the models showing the low
tracking closer towards the state forecast will continue to show
increased rain chances through the week. Temperatures will remain
within a degree or two of seasonal averages.
VFR through the period...though some rain from convection could
bring brief MVFR/IFR. Rsw could see smoke return overnight from a
nearby wildfire which could bring periods of IFR/LIFR...confidence
is too low at the moment to pinpoint if this will occur. 00z tafs
may have a better handle on the situation if an update from the
fire is provided.
easterly surge expected again tonight...could reach cautionary
levels along the coastal waters. Some showers and thunderstorms
will move offshore tonight along with the retreating sea breeze.
no major fire weather concerns are expected through the weekend. A
sea breeze is expected to develop over the coming days...though
there is some uncertainty over how far inland the boundary will be
able to push in.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 50 40
fmy 71 92 72 91 / 20 40 50 50
gif 71 91 72 92 / 10 40 20 50
srq 71 89 73 88 / 20 30 40 40
bkv 67 91 69 91 / 10 40 40 40
spg 74 89 75 89 / 20 30 50 30
Short term/aviation/fire weather/marine...02/Garcia
long term/decision support services...20/Barron