Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
315 PM EDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Short term (tonight-saturday)...
a slightly more unstable air mass compared with yesterday has led
to a few stronger storms today. Current radar imagery shows
isolated returns along the coast with the most activity noted over
Polk County. These storms will continue to push toward the east
through the rest of the afternoon as the West Coast sea breeze
continues is propagation eastward. Activity will diminish later
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. The surface ridge axis
will remain over the south-central part of the peninsula and its
position will lead to a continuation of what we have seen the past
several days. With west to southwest flow...we will continue to
experience early morning showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf
waters that end up translating along coastal regions as well. The
best rain chances will then shift inland as the West Coast sea
breeze initiates and begins its trek eastward once again.
Overall...warm and muggy conditions continue with temperatures
generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs.
Middle term (saturday night-sunday)...
high pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and
southwest Florida through Sunday. Surface ridge axis will persist
south of the forecast area with continued west to southwest
onshore flow...with warm muggy air being advected from the eastern
Gulf of Mexico across the forecast area. Scattered early morning
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the coastal
waters Saturday and move locally onshore. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop over the coastal counties during the morning and
early afternoon spreading inland and increase in areal coverage
during the middle to late afternoon. Drier air aloft will advect over
the region Sunday...and combined with strong subsidence aloft will
inhibit convection Sunday afternoon...with the best chance of
thunderstorms over the interior during the middle to late afternoon.
The strong u/L Ridge over the region will keep temperatures above
climatic normals each day.
Long term (sunday night - thursday)...
the u/L Ridge will begin to be suppressed south as a anomalously
strong u/l trough digs along the eastern Seaboard. Drier air
aloft will persist over the region Monday which will limit
afternoon convection. A frontal boundary will approach North
Florida Tuesday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms
sinking south across west central Florida Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The frontal boundary will weaken and begin to dissipate
over southwest Florida Wednesday night. Transition day Thursday
with scattered afternoon thunderstorms across west central
Florida. Temperatures will continue to run above climatic normals
through the period.
VFR conditions will prevail. Could still see a thunderstorm move
over one of the terminals through this evening...but this is
mainly at klal. Light winds expected overnight and into Saturday
morning with showers and thunderstorms possible early in the
morning at coastal sites around Tampa Bay and including ksrq.
high pressure will remain over the south-Central Peninsula through
the next several days...with southwest to west winds in place across
no concerns for the next several days as relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 78 91 79 92 / 20 20 20 20
fmy 77 93 77 94 / 20 30 20 30
gif 75 93 76 96 / 20 60 20 40
srq 76 91 79 91 / 20 20 20 20
bkv 72 93 73 94 / 20 30 20 20
spg 79 90 80 92 / 20 20 20 20
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...05/Carlisle
middle term/long term...13/Oglesby