Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FRI...IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHINESS MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE RESIDES EAST
OF FL.

LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THESE
WILL LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR SO THEN WIND DOWN. WHILE THE GULF IS
CURRENTLY RAINFALL THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORMS OR TWO BY SUNRISE...RIGHT ALONG THE NATURE COAST DOWN TO
NEAR TAMPA BAY AND OFFSHORE FROM TAMPA BAY TO LEE COUNTY.
 
FORECASTS LOOK FINE BUT WILL ISSUE UPDATES BY 10 PM TO REFLECT
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
04/00Z-05/00Z. VFR CONDITIONS. LIMITED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA NOW
EAST OF TERMINALS AND WILL WIND DOWN BY 03Z. LATE NIGHT GULF SHRA
MAY IMPACT TPA/PIE/SRQ AROUND 12Z...WITH VCNTY TSRA BY MID-MORNING
AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BUT EARLY AFTERNOON AT LAL. PREVAILING
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...WILL PUSH SHRA/TSRA INLAND LATER FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND REACHING OVER FL WILL GIVE WAY TO
WEAK TROUGHING THAT MOVES IN DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT STAYS RELAXED WITH BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  78  90 /  10  30  30  60 
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  10  20  20  60 
GIF  76  92  75  92 /  10  50  30  70 
SRQ  78  90  77  90 /  10  20  30  50 
BKV  75  91  73  91 /  20  30  30  60 
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  10  30  20  50 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE 
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...19/GUSACK
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations