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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
IT HAS BEEN A WET MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE COASTAL WATERS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE INLAND AREAS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST STORMS 
OVER THE NORTHERN AREA AND ALSO DOWN SOUTH...WHILE THE AREA 
AROUND TAMPA BAY HAS STABILIZED OUT WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN. 
THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST 
OF TODAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THIS WET WEATHER WILL 
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES 
LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PULSE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA PRODUCING 
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA GIVING US A HIGH CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DEEP MOISTURE 
AND UPPER ENERGY LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER 
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE STATE LATER SATURDAY WITH SOME 
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BE IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE 
NORTH OR WEST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOCATION OF 
THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERALLY 
EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE S/SE WITH 
THE TROUGH IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OR WEST...BUT THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED 
AS THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS...AND IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO MID 70S FOR LOWS EACH DAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS HAVE SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH PASSING 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS 
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE TIMING 
OF EXACTLY WHEN THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS HARD TO 
SAY FOR SURE...SO WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS BASED 
ON RADAR IMAGERY.  

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
INCREASE SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE 
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THE MAIN 
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL 
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS INCREASE SOME LATER IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  73  87 /  50  50  30  50 
FMY  74  88  72  88 /  40  60  40  50 
GIF  72  88  72  89 /  50  60  30  50 
SRQ  73  86  73  86 /  50  50  40  50 
BKV  68  88  68  88 /  50  50  30  40 
SPG  75  86  75  86 /  50  50  30  50 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN 
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL



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