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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT NOW NEARING LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING 
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE 
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A 
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC 
LIFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
(POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS 
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 50S 
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH INTO 
CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. 

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE 
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE A STRONG DOME OF SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED 
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH 
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REDUCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HOLD AT 
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE 
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING A 
COLD FRONT THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY...THE 
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING 
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK 
INTO THE NATURE COAST. 

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED 
WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS OVERALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE 
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER 
INTO THE NORTH AFTER 02Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH. SCA 
WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM EST AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS 
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 10-15 
KNOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE 
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE 
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE 
ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGH 
SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR ANY LINGERING SWELLS TO REACH THE COAST. RIP CURRENT/HIGH
SURF THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  67  57  73 /   0  10  40  40 
FMY  57  71  61  80 /  30  30  30  50 
GIF  52  68  56  74 /   0  20  40  50 
SRQ  52  68  58  74 /   0  20  40  40 
BKV  45  66  53  72 /   0  10  40  50 
SPG  54  66  58  72 /   0  20  40  40 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL 
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL 
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON 
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL 
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING 
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN



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