Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
909 PM EST Thursday Nov 20 2014
expecting quite a range of temperatures this evening from north to south as
Levy and Citrus counties will likely see another night with
temperatures falling to near freezing while SW Florida will see
overnight lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Areas of frost will be
possible overnight in Levy and Citrus as there will be ideal
radiational cooling taking place with very light winds. A few
normally colder locations may hit the freezing mark but durations
for a freeze warning will likely not be met.
Only made a few minor adjustments this evening to account for
current trends. Did have to up winds slightly over the coastal waters
based on the latest hi-res guidance however. This resulted in the need to
extend the Small Craft Advisory for all the offshore waters. The central and
northern offshore zones will likely get winds at or above 20 kts starting
around 12z. Winds will then subside during the afternoon below 20
kts before they pick up once again tomorrow evening approaching
Small Craft Advisory levels.
VFR expected area wide however lower cloud decks will likely begin
to approach southern terminals as low-level moisture will begin to
return to the area. For now...kept ceilings VFR but would not be
surprised to see ceilings getting close to MVFR levels by daybreak.
Confidence is less than desired however so maintained VFR everywhere
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 49 73 62 80 / 10 10 10 30
fmy 58 78 66 82 / 10 20 20 40
gif 50 73 61 80 / 10 10 10 20
srq 53 76 63 81 / 10 10 20 40
bkv 38 72 59 80 / 0 10 10 20
spg 55 73 65 79 / 10 10 10 30
Florida...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EST Friday for coastal
Levy-inland Citrus-inland Levy.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 1 PM EST Friday for
Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for Bonita
Beach to Englewood out 20 to 60 nm.