Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
238 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015
Short term (today-tuesday)...
u/l pattern will finally begin to break down through the upcoming
week becoming more progressive and amplified by the end of the
extended period. Short term will begin with the persistent Rex
block over the western U.S. And western Canada...with northern
stream flow riding over The Block and southern stream flow under-
cutting The Block. An u/l disturbance will approach the Pacific
northwest today and dislodge the Rex block...ejecting a strong
cut-off u/l low across the Central Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley tonight and Tuesday. A strong u/L Ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida will begin to be suppressed south tonight and
Tuesday...but will hold over the forecast area through the short
Weak surface high pressure will remain over the southeast U.S. And
Florida...with east to Northeast Boundary layer flow persisting
through Tuesday. Strong subsidence aloft combined with mostly clear
skies and weak boundary layer winds will allow areas of low clouds
and fog to develop early this morning with the best chance over the
interior. The low clouds and fog will lift by middle morning with
partly cloudy skies the remainder of the day across the forecast
area. The strong u/L Ridge over the peninsula will continue to
create seasonably warm temperatures across west central and
southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s.
Similar set up tonight with mostly clear skies...east to Northeast
Boundary layer flow...and strong subsidence over the forecast area
will create favorable conditions for areas of low clouds and fog to
develop late tonight/early Tuesday morning with the greatest
likelihood of occurrence across the interior and Nature Coast.
Low clouds and fog will again lift by middle morning Tuesday with skies
becoming partly cloudy across the forecast area. Warm temperatures
will continue with highs again in the lower to middle 80s. Slight
chance of a light afternoon shower or sprinkle mainly over the
Middle term/long term (tuesday night-sunday)...
overall forecast remains unchanged through period. During Tuesday
night and Wednesday a weakening cold front will be moving across the
southeast U.S. With a more south to southwest flow developing across
the region bringing in additional moisture which could lead to a few
showers. The front will move into the region during Wednesday night
and then slow down as upper level energy moves across the southern
U.S. And northern Gulf. There remains some differences between the
models in the timing and strength of the upper level features...but
overall it looks like we will see a chance of showers Thursday into
Friday...especially over the southern half of the area along and
ahead of the slow moving boundary. By Saturday the boundary should
be out of the area with high pressure building in from the north
setting up a breezy northeasterly flow for the weekend. However...
this flow will bring some Atlantic moisture westward and we could
see a few sprinkles/light showers on Sunday.
Warm and rather humid conditions will prevail through Wednesday with
overnight lows mostly in the 60s and daytime highs in the lower to
middle 80s. For Wednesday night through Saturday some drier air will
slowly filter into the region as the boundary moves south so
overnight lows should range from the middle to upper 50s north to the
middle to upper 60s south with daytime highs mostly in the 70s for
Friday through Sunday.
early morning IFR ceilings/visibilities may impact tpa/lal/pgd until 15z...
otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals
the remainder of today.
high pressure will hold north of the waters through middle
week. A weak cold front will approach the waters late in the week
and will push slowly across the region with an increasing chance of
showers. Gradient will tighten behind the front with winds
potentially increasing to advisory levels on Friday continuing
through the weekend.
no fire weather hazards expected as relative humidity values will
remain above critical levels through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 82 66 82 69 / 0 10 10 10
fmy 85 66 85 69 / 10 10 10 10
gif 83 66 83 67 / 10 10 20 10
srq 84 66 82 68 / 0 10 10 10
bkv 82 63 83 64 / 0 10 10 10
spg 77 67 77 68 / 0 10 10 10
Florida...Beach hazards statement through this evening for coastal
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...13/Oglesby