Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
404 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
Short term /now-Wednesday/...
a middle-level trough holds over the peninsula of Florida as a 500
mb low moves off the Carolina coast towards the open Atlantic. At
the surface...a weak boundary will meander around southern Florida
over the short term period. Expect a repeat of today for the most
part on Wednesday...with some middle-level shortwave troughs pushing
across the area creating some potential for showers and...mainly
in southwest Florida...thunderstorms.
Temperatures will once again be closer to fall-like on Wednesday
morning. Preferred the colder solutions as some portions of the
interior could experience some ripe conditions for radiational
cooling which is not being handled well by current MOS guidance.
Trended closer to the cooler temperatures reported by coop sites the past
couple of mornings.
Long term /Wednesday night-Tuesday/...
in the middle/upper levels...the closed upper low that had been
sitting off the East Coast earlier in the week has finally lifted
northward and filled. Residual weak troughing continues off the
eastern Seaboard southwestward over the Florida Peninsula. Weak
ridging extends northward from the western Gulf of Mexico through
the Mississippi River valley. The trough over the East Coast and
ridging to our west will flatten out by Thursday day giving way to
a more zonal flow over the eastern half of the Continental U.S.. by Friday
morning...a deepening u/l trough over the central U.S. Moves
southeast over the Great Lakes and toward the East Coast. This
trough pushes off the East Coast by the weekend and extends
southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. As the trough moves into the
western Atlantic by the beginning of next week...u/l ridging will
become the dominant feature over the Florida region.
On the surface...high pressure over the Great Lakes moves eastward
while a weakening frontal boundary east of Florida washes out. The
gradient flow between this high up north and the front to the east
will keep a northeast wind flow over the area through the end of the
week. A little farther north...a low pressure system moves through
the Great Lakes region and deepens as it moves east toward New
England. The associated frontal boundary moves through the southeast
but should not dip far enough south to affect the weather for
central and southwest Florida. In the wake of this front high
pressure will settle back in the southeast U.S. And Florida by the
end of the weekend and into next week. This will put US back into a
northeast to east wind flow pattern. Not allot of changes can be
expected as far as tropical moisture...so will keep isolated to
scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the period.
Temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year through
the end of the week and into the weekend.
generally VFR through the period...with some showers around the
swfl terminals this afternoon and potentially more convection
around again on Wednesday afternoon. Northeasterly flow could
develop again overnight into tomorrow morning...allowing for low
clouds to develop that could drop the northern terminals as low as
IFR or LIFR. Confidence is too low at this time to include these
low ceilings in the taf.
a weak surface trough will continue moving southward through
tonight...resulting in easterly flow over the waters. An area of
weak low pressure will then remain south of the region...with high
pressure to the north. This will maintain easterly to
northeasterly winds below 15 knots over the waters through late
week. With light winds and seas of 1 to 2 feet...no headlines are
expected for the next several days.
generally dry conditions will continue tonight. From tomorrow on
into the weekend...the weather pattern will become more conducive
to daily showers and thunderstorms. This along with increasing low
level moisture will prevent any wildfire concerns into the
weekend. Some ground fog is possible in low-lying fog-prone
areas...though widespread fog is not expected at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 70 87 73 88 / 0 10 20 30
fmy 70 87 73 88 / 10 20 40 40
gif 68 87 71 88 / 0 20 20 30
srq 70 87 73 87 / 10 10 20 30
bkv 65 86 69 88 / 0 10 10 30
spg 73 85 75 86 / 10 10 10 30
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...02/Garcia
long term/decision support services...74/Wynn