Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
354 am EST Friday Mar 6 2015
Short term (today - saturday)...
moist southwest winds on the back side of high pressure in the
western Atlantic is producing prime conditions for another morning
of low stratus ceilings and fog across the region including some
areas of dense fog over the coastal waters and land. Middle/upper
level ridging supporting this high pressure east of the Bahamas
weakens as middle level troughing moves through the eastern Continental U.S..
this trough is supporting a frontal boundary that extends from the
Middle Atlantic States southwest through the Florida Panhandle and
into the Gulf of Mexico. This front will move through the area on
Friday and will bring a wind shift to the north northeast which
will also destabilize the atmosphere enough to dissipate the fog
and low stratus. As the front approaches the central Florida on
Friday morning...cloud cover will be on the rise as well as a
slight chance of showers. The front will stall out over southern
Florida between high pressure to the north and high pressure over
the western Atlantic. This front will not be a huge weather
producer but will bring a slight chance to chance of showers
through the weekend as well as cooler temperatures.
Middle/long term (saturday night - next friday)...
near zonal flow aloft to start the period while at the surface...a
stalled boundary remains over South Florida with high pressure north
of the region. East to northeast winds will bring moisture over the
forecast area from the Atlantic with mostly cloudy skies expected to
end the weekend. Also cannot rule out a slight chance for a few
showers with the frontal boundary starting to slowly move northward.
Temperatures on Sunday will be close to normal. Models continue to
depict an unsettled pattern next week...showing an upper-level
trough over the southwestern U.S. Persisting with a ridge remaining
southeast of the forecast area and southwest flow aloft between the
two features. Will keep slight chance to chance probability of precipitation and partly to
mostly cloudy skies in the forecast each day with this pattern in
place as several shortwaves are forecast to eject from the base
of the trough across the northern Gulf Coast region. Temperatures
for next week will remain a few degrees above normal.
a moist environment will continue to produce ceiling and visibility
challenges for most terminals through middle morning on Friday.
Conditions will remain IFR...and brief periods of LIFR for low ceilings
and visibility through at least 15z. Conditions will improve after 15z
bringing overall VFR conditions back to the region. Winds will veer
from the southwest to the north northeast and remain in the 5 to 10
the main impact starting out will be sea fog once again. Visibilities
in Tampa Bay and along the coastal waters are less than 1/4 mile
in some locations. Conditions will improve by late Friday morning
as a cold front moves through the area destabilizing the atmosphere
and causing the winds to shift to the north northeast. Winds on the
back side of this front will increase to small craft exercise
caution level by Friday morning over the northern outer coastal waters.
These gusty northeast winds will spread southward by Saturday with
scec conditions along all outer waters from 20-60 nm. Conditions
will begin to improve on Monday as the front lifts back north of the
southwest winds and abundant low level moisture will keep relative humidity values
above any critical thresholds for the next couple of days. Early
morning fog on Friday morning could pose some difficulties with
smoke management and visibility issues. A frontal boundary stalls
over the area through the weekend and will prevent any critical fire
thresholds from being reached.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 72 55 72 59 / 10 10 10 10
fmy 82 61 79 64 / 30 10 10 10
gif 74 55 73 58 / 10 10 10 10
srq 76 57 74 61 / 10 0 10 10
bkv 69 50 71 52 / 10 10 10 10
spg 73 58 71 62 / 10 10 10 10
Florida...dense fog advisory until 10 am EST this morning for
Dense fog advisory until 10 am EST this morning for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
Highlands-inland Charlotte-inland Hillsborough-inland
Lee-inland Manatee-inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.
Gulf waters...dense fog advisory until 10 am EST this morning
for Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Charlotte Harbor and
Pine Island Sound-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Tampa
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...74/Wynn
middle/long term/decision support...05/Carlisle