Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
332 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Short term (today-thursday)...
surface high pressure will be in place across the area through
Wednesday with the ridge axis north of the area. A shortwave
trough will also be in place aloft through Wednesday. Generally
east/southeast winds will be in place with a sea breeze developing each
afternoon. Ample moisture and the upper energy in place will allow
for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms to develop each day
along sea breeze and outflow boundaries with the best chances east
of I-75. Rain chances this afternoon are 40-50 percent coastal to
50-60 percent inland with the convection. Stronger westerly flow
and a little drier air moving in Wednesday afternoon will lower
rain chances to 30 percent coastal to 40 percent inland. With the
cooler temperatures in place aloft with the trough...may have some
strong to severe storms develop this afternoon with gusty
winds...hail and brief heavy rains causing some ponding on
roadways. Temperatures will be in the middle 60s-lower 70s each
morning and in the middle 80s coastal to around 90 inland each
afternoon.
Weak surface low pressure will then move over the state Thursday
as a longer wave upper trough moves into the region. Westerly
flow and some drier air will allow for fewer storms across the
area Thursday afternoon with 20-30 percent rain chances in place.
Highs will be in the middle 80s coastal to the lower 90s inland.
Long term (thursday night-monday)...
high amplitude pattern will persist with a l/west trough over the
eastern U.S. With a strong cut-off low developing Friday over the
middle Atlantic. As the trough axis pushes east of Florida on
Friday...a cold front will move across region with a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build over the
forecast area Friday night and Saturday with slightly drier air
advecting across the region. High pressure will move to the middle
Atlantic coast Sunday and over the western Atlantic Monday...while
u/l ridging over the central U.S. Will begin to gradually edge
east. This will keep broad easterly boundary layer flow across the
forecast area with subsidence aloft and a low chance of rain each
day.
&&
Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through this morning with patchy early
morning fog producing local MVFR visibilities. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon with local IFR cigs/vsbys...otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail with scattered local broken 040-050.
&&
Marine...
winds and seas will be fairly light through Friday as weak ridging
gives way to weak low pressure. Friday night and Saturday the
pressure gradient will tighten as high pressure builds into the
area behind a weak cold front. Winds and seas will increase to
near cautionary levels and will be monitoring this through the
week.
&&
Fire weather...
no concerns other than some patchy fog developing in the pre-dawn
hours each morning. Humidities will remain well above critical
levels.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 87 72 87 72 / 50 20 30 20
fmy 90 71 89 71 / 50 30 40 20
gif 89 69 89 70 / 60 30 50 20
srq 87 70 87 70 / 50 20 30 20
bkv 88 65 88 65 / 50 20 30 20
spg 86 74 87 74 / 50 20 30 20
&&
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&
$$
Short term/marine/fire weather...24/Colson
long term/aviation...13/Oglesby
