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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1019 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

Update...12z tbw sounding shows a significantly drier air mass
over the area today with a noticeable lack in instability. Cannot
justify adding/increasing probability of precipitation today across much of the region.
Main forecast concern today will be the whether or not a sea
breeze is able to develop along the coast or if the easterly flow
will overcome any diurnal shift this afternoon. Yesterday saw a
minor wind shift across portions of the Nature Coast on the
immediate coast line but currently not anticipating that today.
Hrrr guidance is the outlier today of the hi res models showing a
wind shift along the immediate coast line from the Manatee County
coastline up towards the Nature Coast. Will side with local WRF
and show only a brief shift in winds towards the northeast by the
early evening as easterly flow over Powers sea breeze.
Otherwise... no updates anticipated.

&&

Aviation...VFR to prevail today.



&&

Marine... early morning saw a decent easterly nocturnal surge to
15 to 20 knots across waters...including Tampa Bay. Expecting a
similar set up late tonight so will mention small craft exercise
caution for the overnight hours.



&&

Fire weather...no updates from previous forecast.



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Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 71 89 73 / 0 0 20 20
fmy 91 69 90 72 / 0 0 40 40
gif 89 68 90 71 / 0 0 30 10
srq 91 69 89 71 / 0 0 30 30
bkv 91 64 89 68 / 0 0 20 20
spg 90 72 88 75 / 0 0 20 30

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

Update/aviation/marine/fire weather...20/Barron
decision support...57/McMichael

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