Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
921 PM EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Short term (rest of tonight)...
high pressure centered near 30 degrees north is ridging west
southwest over central and southern Florida into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Farther north...a stationary frontal boundary
extends over northern Florida across the Panhandle and into the
north central Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will keep higher
rain chances up north in The Big Bend area of Florida while high
pressure keeps drier conditions over the central and southern
portions of Florida.

Shower activity was very limited today...with only isolated
showers along the Nature Coast and north of Tampa Bay. The 12z
sounding was the driest we have seen in over 10 days and water
vapor imagery is also showing a drier air mass over the southern
half of Florida. With these dry conditions...we are not expecting
any shower activity through the night. Have updated the probability of precipitation and
weather grids to reflect decreasing coverage of showers and storms.
Temperatures and winds are on track.


VFR expected through the period. Brief showers...and possibly a
thunderstorm are possible during the afternoon for the northern
terminals. Winds will remain light overnight and will pick up
tomorrow as the sea breeze sets up...but should still remain less
than 10 knots.


a weak ridge of high pressure over the region will drift
south on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the north. This
front will drift slowly southward through the waters Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds expected to be around 10 kts and seas expected to be
generally 2 feet or less except higher winds and seas in the vicinity
of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may be more numerous on Wednesday
along the front.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 76 89 75 / 20 20 60 40
fmy 93 75 92 75 / 20 20 60 40
gif 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 70 40
srq 91 75 88 74 / 20 20 50 40
bkv 92 72 89 69 / 30 20 60 50
spg 90 79 88 77 / 20 20 60 40


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


Short term/aviation...74/Wynn
decision support...05/Carlisle

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations