Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
341 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
Short term (tonight-Saturday night)...
afternoon visible satellite imagery shows clear skies across much
of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. Just a few wispy cirrus
can be seen streaking across The Everglades in South Florida. The high
centered over the deep south will allow for one more cool evening
across the County Warning Area before a warming trend will begin tomorrow. Given
the clear skies and position of the surface ridge to the
north...winds should decouple nicely overnight across the Nature
Coast allowing for ideal radiational cooling to occur. That being
said...went ahead and issued a frost advisory for all of Levy and
Citrus counties. Frost occurrence will be dependent on winds
staying light however. A few locations in Levy may briefly hit 32
or even 31 degrees but it likely will not be widespread enough to
warrant the issuance of a freeze warning.
Saturday the upper pattern begins to show signs of ridging over
the central/eastern Gulf which will evolve and amplify eastward
over our region Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will
respond nicely...and tomorrow afternoon looks to be close to 10
degrees warmer for most locations than they were this afternoon.
This equates to upper 60s far north...lower 70s through the I-4
corridor and middle 70s down toward Fort Myers.
Long term (sunday through friday)...
models are in decent agreement through the period regarding the synoptic
features. Broad middle level ridging will gradually strengthen over the
region through the beginning of the week as 500 mb heights bump up from
around 582 to 587. Not much synoptic forcing or surface instability
to warrant rain chances through the period. Dry air into the middle levels
will linger over the state through middle week before beginning to moderate
slightly by the end of the period. With the lack of a frontal influences
through Friday.. temperatures will run from the middle to upper 70s in the afternoon
and middle 50s to low 60s overnight.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
high pressure centered to the north covers most of the eastern
United States. Gusty northeast winds have weakened slightly but
still remain in the scec criteria from Tarpon Springs south. For
the weekend...the winds and seas will continue to diminish each
day and become easterly as the high pressure to the north moves
into the Atlantic.
high pressure will remain parked to the north of the region through
the upcoming weekend. Drier air is filtering into the region behind
a cold front that passed through the area Thursday. Low level moisture
begins to recover over the weekend and will help keep relative humidity
values above critical levels for both Saturday and Sunday.
Fog potential...fog is not expected to be a concern Friday night.
Conditions become slightly more favorable and hence higher chances
exist for areas of fog development both Saturday night and Sunday
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 46 71 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 48 76 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
gif 44 71 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
srq 46 73 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 37 71 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
spg 51 70 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EST Saturday for coastal
Citrus-coastal Levy-inland Citrus-inland Levy.
Short term/aviation/fire weather...11/mckaughan