Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
837 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

..no major changes to going forecast...

A weak surface low was located 165 nm east of Daytona Beach with a
diffuse trough extending westward into the Gulf of Mexico where
radar currently has rain offshore of the Nature Coast. The infrared
satellite loop continued to show warming cloud tops as the
precipitation diminishes. Radar was also showing multiple boundaries
scattered across the Gulf from previous convection. The evening
sounding showed a cape of 2405 j/kg and a lifted index of -7.
Expected scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop offshore
later tonight...then move onshore toward sunrise.

&&

Aviation... VFR currently...but scattered showers in the Gulf of
Mexico expected to move onshore after 09z. Coverage is a tough call
at this time so will keep forecast VFR with vcsh or thunderstorms in the vicinity after 09z.

&&

Marine... large area of light to moderate rain 0 to 60+ miles
offshore from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River will diminish. A
series of left over outflow boundaries will create scattered showers
and storms around midnight and these will move onshore late tonight.

&&

Fire weather...
no significant fire weather concerns through the next few days.

&&

Hydrology...
the areal Flood Watch remains in effect for Hernando...Pasco...
Pinellas...and Hillsborough counties through 8pm Thursday evening.
Citrus County had the most rain in the last 12 hours with widespread
2 to 3 inches. Areas most at risk include the East Lake area of
Pinellas...northwest Hillsborough...and all of Pasco...Hernando...
and Citrus counties.

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Pasco-inland
Hernando-inland Hillsborough-inland Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...none.

&&
$$

Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...72/Noah
decision support...09/rude
hydrology/upper air/climate...13/Oglesby

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations