Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
915 am EDT Sat Apr 19 2014



Discussion... clouds in the circulation of the low over North
Florida are moving across the area from the Gulf. The clouds are
most dense from Tampa Bay north. Although no showers are showing up
on radar. In the broad band of clouds over the Gulf we could see
some showers develop. This mornings sounding indicates some elevated
instability with -15c at 500 and -27c at 400 mb. In the lower levels
the atmosphere is stable but inland areas with some heating could
set off convection and the forecast reflects this. Outside of that
breezy and slightly cooler conditions with prevail today.



&&

Aviation...
low ceilings are in the MVFR range and should lift as the day GOES on.
Some showers are possible this afternoon.

&&

Marine...
gusty winds and elevated seas will remain in place for today.
Conditions will improve into Sunday as high pressure builds back in
to start the work week.

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Fire weather...
recent rain should mitigate most fire weather concerns. Gusty winds
are expected today and tomorrow...which will produce elevated
dispersion index values.

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Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

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Cp/tb/am