Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
845 PM EDT Wednesday may 27 2015
Update (rest of tonight)...today has been very quiet and much
different than what we saw on Tuesday. Water vapor imagery and this
evenings upper air sounding shows a dramatic increase in dry air
in the middle/upper levels over the Florida Peninsula. The 00z
sounding came in at only 0.95 inches precipitable water...nearly 1 inch lower
than 24 hours ago. This dry air has helped to suppress any
significant cloud development as well as any shower and storm
activity today. Dry conditions will continue overnight and into
Thursday as the synoptic pattern remains unchanged. Overnight
temperatures will be just about average for the time of year
ranging from middle 60s to lower 70s. Forecast is tracking well so no
changes need for the evening update.
Aviation...VFR will prevail through the night and on Thursday.
Winds will remain our of the east around 5 to 10 knots.
Marine...high pressure off the New England coast continues to ridge
southwest through the western Atlantic...over the Florida Peninsula
and into the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will remain unchanged
through the end of the week allowing for east to northeast winds to
remain in place across the coastal waters. The only exception will
be along the coast where the sea breeze will set up producing an
onshore flow during the afternoon hours. An easterly surge to
exercise caution level winds is expected for portions of the Gulf
waters during the late night and early morning hours for the next
couple of nights. Otherwise...no headlines are expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 72 89 70 89 / 10 10 0 30
fmy 71 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 30
gif 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 30
srq 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 0 30
bkv 67 90 65 90 / 10 10 0 20
spg 74 89 73 88 / 20 10 0 30