Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
937 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015

..Flood Watch for portions of west central and southwest Florida
through Monday...

Update...
a late start to showers and thunderstorms this evening is now
producing heavy rain...gusty winds...and lightning across portions
of the Tampa Bay area. Cloud cover helped keep temperatures from
rising as quickly which helped delay the timing of the convection.
Have updated zones to account for the latest observed and model
trends.

The enhanced moisture and sea breeze boundary interactions
continue to be drivers behind the convection. Main concern remains
the heavy rain threat over already saturated areas. Middle-level
energy moving along with the remnants of Erika is also helping to
enhance the rainfall threat. The Flood Watch geographic extent
continues to capture a large amount of the threat through
Monday...will allow the midnight shift to monitor the situation.

&&

Aviation...
MVFR or better...though brief bouts of IFR/LIFR possible with
heavy rain during storms. Conditions should improve overnight to
VFR before the next round of showers and storms begins coming
ashore in the morning to afternoon hours. Gusty winds should
become lighter and more variable overnight.

&&

Marine...
not much change to the forecast with this issuance. Remnants of
Erika are expected to make their way into the Gulf through
Monday...allowing for additional storm chances. Mariners will need
to monitor the progression of the forecast over the next several
days as it will likely evolve quickly.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 75 88 77 90 / 50 50 40 60
fmy 75 88 76 91 / 50 60 30 60
gif 75 88 75 91 / 50 60 30 70
srq 75 87 77 90 / 50 60 40 60
bkv 74 88 74 90 / 50 60 30 60
spg 77 88 78 90 / 50 50 40 60

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch through Monday evening for coastal Charlotte-
coastal Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Pasco-coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-
Hardee-Highlands-inland Charlotte-inland Hernando-
inland Hillsborough-inland Lee-inland Manatee-inland
Pasco-inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

Update/aviation/marine...02/Garcia
decision support services...63/jillson
data collection/upper air/hydrology...11/mckaughan

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations