Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
354 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Short term (today-sunday)...
high pressure is ridging across the area at the surface and aloft
and will continue across the region through Sunday. The surface
ridge axis is to the north putting the area in east to southeast
flow. A weak sea breeze may develop along the coast in the late
afternoon each day turning winds to the south/southwest late in the
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each
afternoon and evening with gusty winds and heavy rains causing
localized flooding the biggest hazards. Temperatures will warm to
generally 90-95 each afternoon with the overnight low in the
70s...except around 80 along the coast.
Long term (sunday night-friday)...
for next week...the surface ridge will remain north of the
area...keeping US generally in easterly flow as a middle/upper-level
low retrogrades westward toward the Florida East Coast through
mid-week. With easterly flow and plenty of moisture in
place...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon...shifting toward the West Coast in the
evening. Models show differing amounts of drier air moving over the
region for Wednesday...with probability of precipitation slightly lower...but still mostly
in the scattered range. Temperatures look to remain around normal
values for this time of year.
light east winds with VFR skies will start the morning. Winds will
become around 8 knots and gradually turn to the S/SW near the coast
in the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop generally
after 18z-02z and have thunderstorms in the vicinity for this. Conditions should prevail VFR
through the period...but any storm that moves over a terminal can
cause tempo MVFR to IFR conditions. Light east winds and clearing
skies will return after 31/02z.
generally east to southeast flow will be in place through much of
the period with an afternoon sea breeze developing near the coast
each day turning winds onshore. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible each day. No highlights are expected through the
period but winds and sea will be higher near thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 93 77 93 78 / 40 20 40 30
fmy 93 75 94 76 / 40 20 40 30
gif 93 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 20
srq 92 76 94 75 / 40 20 40 30
bkv 94 74 94 73 / 40 20 40 20
spg 93 81 92 80 / 40 20 40 30
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...24/Hubbard
middle term/long term/decision support...05/Carlisle