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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
825 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Update (rest of tonight and thursday)...
00z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows the northern stream flow
carving out a deep longwave trough across the western half of the
Continental U.S./Upper Midwest before the flow ridges well northward into
central/eastern Canada. South of this main flow we find an upper low
migrating off the New England coast with more zonal flow further
south through the deep south. Upper levels per WV imagery are on the
dry side over the Florida Peninsula this evening. The morning ktbw
sounding profile sampled this dry layer above 500mb very well and
the 00z evening sounding shows the depth of the drier air increased
during the day and was part of the reason Wednesday saw
significantly less rainfall coverage than previous days.

At the surface...a weak surface trough extends across the Central
Peninsula with high pressure to the north ridging into the northern
part of the state.

As of 00z...still seeing a few scattered showers to the north of the
I-4 corridor...but this activity will be dissipating during the next
couple of hours with the loss of diurnal heating. After these storms
are gone...will anticipate a dry and seasonable overnight period.

Thursday will similar day with less convective coverage than was
seen over the past weekend. Gradient will be weak allowing
sea-breeze development on both coasts. This setup suggests the best
shower coverage on Thursday will be inland from I-75...and mainly
after 2-3pm.

&&

Aviation...
the last of the afternoon scattered showers are diminishing with the
setting sun this evening and anticipate a general dry overnight with
prevailing VFR conditions for the next several hours. Late at night
will need to watch the potential for patchy lower clouds that could
briefly drop ktpa/kpie/klal down to MVFR levels. Confidence in this
MVFR occurrence is not high...and have left mention out for the
current taf package. Any lower clouds will burn off early on
Thursday with general VFR conditions expected away from any scattered
afternoon storms.

&&

Marine...
a stalled frontal boundary over central Florida will dissipate
today. Any showers associated with this boundary will move from
the coastal waters inland this afternoon. As this boundary
dissipates...winds and rain chances will decrease over the next
few days. Any chance of showers or storms will occur early morning
then transitioning inland during the afternoon. Even with a
decreasing chance of showers and storms...there will still be
locally higher winds and seas in and around isolated thunderstorms.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 74 88 74 89 / 10 30 10 30
fmy 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 10 30
gif 73 91 72 90 / 20 40 20 40
srq 73 87 73 88 / 10 30 10 30
bkv 68 89 70 89 / 20 40 10 30
spg 75 89 77 89 / 10 30 10 30

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.

&&

$$

Update/aviation...mroczka
marine...mckaughan

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