Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
927 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
isolated storms which developed late in the afternoon ahead of a
late season cool front from Central Highlands County southwest to
The Fort Myers area have since dissipated as drier air filters
into the region on a northwest wind flow. As for the rest of tonight
the late season front will move south of the region overnight as
deepening low pressure off the New England coast lifts out to the
northeast. A much drier air mass (dew points in the 40s and 50s now
being observed over southern Georgia and the Florida panhandle) in the
wake of the front will advect into the region overnight and into the
upcoming Holiday weekend as surface high pressure builds in from the
northwest. The drier air along with an increasing north to northeast
wind flow (due to a tightening pressure gradient associated with the
building high) will keep fog out of the forecast tonight with clear
skies and slightly below seasonal level temperatures expected by
morning. Current forecast is in great shape...with no evening update
required.
&&
Aviation...
VFR.
&&
Marine...
northwest winds in the 10 to 12 knot range this evening via C-man
and offshore buoys will begin to increase and veer into the north
and northeast later tonight as the front moves south of the waters
and surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. A tightening
pressure gradient associated with the high will increase wind and
seas into the exercise caution range later tonight through Saturday
with low end small craft conditions and rough boating conditions a
possibility over portions of the waters late Saturday into Sunday.
Ongoing forecast has a good handle on all of this with no changes
expected in the next forecast issuance later this evening.
&&
Fire weather...
drier air will continue to advect into the region tonight into the
upcoming Holiday weekend in the wake of a late season cool front.
This dry airmass will allow humidity values to drop below 35 percent
over much of the forecast area Saturday afternoon. The low humidity
is anticipated to combined with gusty east to northeast winds and
energy release component values of 27 or higher to produce critical
fire weather conditions for most of the counties in west central
Florida...which are currently under a Fire Weather Watch. Dry
conditions are expected to continue on Sunday with the best chances
of critically low humidity values being along and north of the I-4
corridor. Winds are not expected to be as strong on Sunday and any
potential red flag conditions look to be dependent on how erc values
fluctuate during the next few days.
&&
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening for Citrus-DeSoto-Hardee-Hernando-
Hillsborough-Manatee-Pasco-Pinellas-Polk-Sarasota-
Sumter.
Gulf waters...none.
&&
$$
Discussion/marine/fire weather...57/McMichael
aviation...18/Fleming
data collection/upper air...75/Lewis
