Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
436 am EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
Short term (today-wednesday)...
northwest flow aloft will be in place today with models
consistent in showing a vorticity maximum moving by to the north of the
forecast area...in the northern Florida/southern Georgia/Alabama
region. At the surface...high pressure remains a bit elongated
over the area with a frontal boundary forecast to drop into the
same region but remain north of the forecast area as well.
Generally westerly flow will be in place with the East Coast sea
breeze forming this afternoon and pushing inland. This whole setup
will lead to most of the rain today to our north and east...but
cannot rule out a stray shower and maybe even a thunderstorm for
the most inland and northern parts of the forecast area so will
keep a small area of slight chance probability of precipitation in place. The tail end of
the frontal boundary will remain to our north tonight with the
forecast remaining dry. Similar to today...the East Coast sea
breeze will shift inland on Wednesday and allow a few showers to
form in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler at
the coast each afternoon...but will end up in the lower to middle 80s
Long term (wednesday night-tuesday)...
progressive u/l pattern across the Continental U.S. With an u/l disturbance
digging across the intermountain west Thursday with weak ridging
along the eastern Seaboard. The u/l disturbance will push across
the Midwest Friday...and off the middle Atlantic coast late Saturday.
In its wake...quasi zonal flow will develop across the Continental U.S..
another u/l disturbance will move onshore the West Coast of the U.S.
Sunday and Monday...with a subtropical ridge building over the Gulf
of Mexico and Florida.
At the surface...a weak frontal boundary will extend across North
Florida Thursday. Easterly boundary layer flow will run up against
an afternoon West Coast sea breeze which will create a chance of
showers Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure will build across
the western Atlantic extending over the Florida Peninsula and
eastern Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night. A cold front will
approach North Florida Saturday with a slight chance of showers
across the Nature Coast. U/l support will be lifting well north of
the region with the frontal boundary sinking into rather dry air
aloft which will decrease coverage of shower activity as the front
sinks south over the central Florida Peninsula. High pressure will
build over the southeast U.S. And Florida Saturday night but will
move quickly off the middle Atlantic coast on Sunday. The front will
lift north as a warm front Sunday and Sunday night with u/l energy
overriding the frontal boundary increasing areal coverage of showers
and thunderstorms...however the bulk of this activity will remain
north of the forecast area with a chance of showers over portions of
west central Florida on Monday.
Conditions will be predominately dry in the long range...however
temperatures will run several degrees above climatic normals each
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Klal and
kpgd could experience some patchy ground fog later this
morning...but not expecting any significant visibility reductions
at this time.
westerly winds will continue today and Wednesday before turning
easterly for the end of the week. No headlines expected for the
next several days with winds remaining below 15 knots and seas
expected to be 2 feet or less.
no fire weather concerns for the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 78 64 80 64 / 10 0 0 0
fmy 81 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
gif 82 62 84 63 / 20 0 20 10
srq 77 62 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 79 57 81 58 / 10 0 0 0
spg 77 66 80 67 / 0 0 0 0
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...05/Carlisle
long term/decision support...13/Oglesby