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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
305 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Short term (tonight and tuesday)...
currently at the surface...a cold front extends from the Carolinas
westward through central Georgia/Alabama and into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Deep westerly flow to the south of the cold
front continues to funnel a moisture rich airmass and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in off the Gulf of Mexico. Main
short term concern revolves around rainfall trends once again.

The cold front north of the area will shift southward into the
Panhandle tonight...then slowly progress southward into the Nature
Coast on Tuesday. Initially...expect the shower/thunderstorm
activity to wind down over the region through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening hours as it typically does. Later
tonight as coastal convergence increases and the front slips
southward into the Panhandle...expect isolated to scattered
showers/storms to re-develop over the eastern Gulf...with highest
rain chances over the Nature Coast toward daybreak Tuesday. Westerly
flow will continue to be dominant on Tuesday...but with deeper
moisture associated with the approaching cold front...expect rain
chances to be higher than what was seen today...generally in the 40
to 60 percent range...highest across northern zones. Low
temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the middle to upper
70s...except in the lower 80s near the coast. Highs Tuesday will top
out generally in the lower 90s.

&&

Middle term (tuesday night and wednesday)...
the middle/upper level trough will hold over the eastern U.S. With the
associated cold front fizzing out over central Florida on Wednesday.
The deepest moisture will remain along and to the south of the
frontal boundary...with scattered storms expected across central and
southern zones Tuesday night and mainly the south on Wednesday.
Overnight lows Tuesday night will bottom out mostly in the 70s...but
some coastal areas may only fall into the lower 80s thanks to the
onshore flow. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the upper 80s near
the coast to the lower 90s inland.

&&

Long term (wednesday night-sunday)...
the middle/upper level troughing will linger over the eastern U.S. Into
the weekend with the front washing out over southern Florida on
Thursday. Some drier air will filter into the area Wednesday night
and Thursday...but by the weekend the deep moisture will return as
the surface ridge axis moves back north into central Florida. Rain
chances will be rather low...20 to 30 percent...on Thursday with the
best chances over the southern interior. Rain chances will then ramp
up late in the week into the weekend with scattered to numerous
mainly afternoon and evening storms expected each day.

Temperatures through the long term will range from lows mostly in
the 70s to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

Aviation...
70s...except in the lower 80s near the coast. Highs Tuesday will top
out generally in the lower 90s.

&&

Middle term (tuesday night and wednesday)...
the middle/upper level trough will hold over the eastern U.S. With the
associated cold front fizzing out over central Florida on Wednesday.
The deepest moisture will remain along and to the south of the
frontal boundary...with scattered storms expected across central and
southern zones Tuesday night and mainly the south on Wednesday.
Overnight lows Tuesday night will bottom out mostly in the 70s...but
some coastal areas may only fall into the lower 80s thanks to the
onshore flow. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the upper 80s near
the coast to the lower 90s inland.

&&

Long term (wednesday night-sunday)...
the middle/upper level troughing will linger over the eastern U.S. Into
the weekend with the front washing out over southern Florida on
Thursday. Some drier air will filter into the area Wednesday night
and Thursday...but by the weekend the deep moisture will return as
the surface ridge axis moves back north into central Florida. Rain
chances will be rather low...20 to 30 percent...on Thursday with the
best chances over the southern interior. Rain chances will then ramp
up late in the week into the weekend with scattered to numerous
mainly afternoon and evening storms expected each day.

Temperatures through the long term will range from lows mostly in
the 70s to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the taf forecast
period. Better chances for temporary visibility restrictions in rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
and MVFR ceilings late tonight through Tuesday morning as a cold front
approaches from the north. Will handle with vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity for now.

&&

Marine...
high pressure has shifted over South Florida as a frontal boundary
moves through southern Georgia. As the front continues moving
south...this will cause a tighter pressure gradient and will
increase the winds and build the seas to a moderate chop across the
coastal waters. Small craft should exercise caution when operating
off shore. These conditions will continue through Wednesday when the
front moves south of the area. The only other hazards will be higher
winds and seas in the vicinity of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

Fire weather...
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds through the forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 83 92 78 92 / 40 40 30 10
fmy 78 93 76 92 / 20 40 50 40
gif 77 93 75 94 / 10 40 30 20
srq 83 92 78 91 / 40 40 40 20
bkv 76 93 71 94 / 40 50 30 10
spg 83 91 78 91 / 40 40 30 10

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...rip current risk through Tuesday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...none.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation/fire weather...jelsema
middle term/long term...close
marine...Wynn
decision support...Garcia

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