Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
245 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term (tonight-sunday)...
clear and pleasant conditions are noted across the forecast area
this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The low that is located near the Bahamas will continue to shift
away to the northeast which lead to a relaxed gradient and light
winds overnight. High pressure surface and aloft will continue to
shift east and build over the region through tonight and Sunday
with dry air remaining in place and no rain in the forecast.
Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be in the lower 80s under
mostly clear skies.
Long term (sunday night-friday)...
middle/low level high pressure will be centered over the Gulf of
Mexico and lower Mississippi River valley Sunday night...with middle
level ridging extending north towards the western Great Lakes. At
the surface...broad high pressure will be sprawled across the Ohio
River valley and southeastern Continental U.S. And Gulf of Mexico...setting
up fair and dry conditions to start the work week across the
forecast area. During the first half of the week...the middle level
ridging and surface high pressure will shift to the east...setting
up easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures will
increase back into the middle to upper 80s...and dew points will
gradually increase to the low to upper 60s by midweek...bringing a
warm and humid airmass back to the region. Meanwhile...a strong
upper level trough will develop over the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region...with an associated surface low dragging a cold
front in towards the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday evening. As
the surface low pulls away into eastern Canada...the cold front
will lose momentum and will struggle to make it into the northern
Florida Peninsula on Friday...but should be sufficient to increase
rain chances on Friday...mostly north of the Interstate 4
corridor...as well as suppress high temperatures by a couple of
degrees. Wind speeds will also begin to pick up Friday as the
pressure gradient tightens along the frontal boundary.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
clear skies with winds 15 knots or less will create good conditions
for boating over the weekend. High pressure will hold over the
waters through the middle of next week with winds 15 knots or less
and seas generally 3 feet or less.
high pressure and dry air will remain over the area through the
weekend. Relative humidity values will drop near or below
critical levels for a few hours Sunday afternoon but erc values
and winds will preclude any red flag conditions.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 59 82 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 60 83 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
gif 57 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
srq 57 81 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 45 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
spg 65 81 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
Short term/aviation/fire weather...05/Carlisle