Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
947 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
showers continue this evening over the southern coastal waters
zones with a few making it onshore over southwest Florida.
The rest of the area remains dry as water vapor has shown drier
air sinking southward over the state. Upper level trough remains
across the eastern part of the country with a surface frontal
trough across Florida. This will help keep rain chances in the
forecast mainly for southwest Florida and the Gulf waters from
around the Tampa Bay area southward through the overnight and
early morning hours. Guidance has been hinting at the possibility
of some patchy fog tonight...and confidence is not very high...but
went ahead and put that into the grids for some interior locations
given the rain that fell earlier in the day. Temperatures tonight
will bottom out in the upper 60s to middle 70s near the coast.
VFR conditions are generally expected but a bit of a tricky
forecast for rain and possible fog overnight for this taf package.
Most areas have dried out...but will leave vcsh for
kpgd...kfmy...and krsw starting later tonight. These areas will
also have the best rain chances through Thursday but will include
thunderstorms in the vicinity mention for other sites as well after 18z. As far as
fog...mentioned 6sm and br at klal and kpgd for now with rather
low confidence but given their nature and the rain that fell
today...went ahead and put it in the forecast.
the frontal boundary has pushed south over the southern coastal
waters. Winds will decrease overnight and veer to a north
northwest direction. Scattered thunderstorms and rain showers
associated with this front will continue through the night over
the southern waters. Conditions will improve on Thursday with
decreasing north northwest winds...then veering around to the east
on Friday. A more typical summertime pattern will setup for the
weekend with afternoon and evening storms over the coastal waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 75 89 76 86 / 20 30 30 60
fmy 74 89 74 87 / 40 50 40 60
gif 73 91 74 88 / 10 30 30 60
srq 74 89 75 86 / 30 30 40 60
bkv 68 91 71 87 / 10 30 30 60
spg 77 89 77 86 / 20 30 40 60