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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1006 am EDT Thursday Aug 21 2014 day on tap for west central and southwest Florida...

the peninsula of Florida sits on the eastern edge of high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Northerly flow is
keeping isolated showers and thunderstorms over the waters
this morning. As the high pressure slides west today...the
northerly flow will become more northeasterly. A sea breeze is
expected to develop...being pinned by the northeast flow closer to
the coast than it has been in previous days. Available moisture
and instability will have to overcome the decreasing subsidence
to produce showers and thunderstorms later today. Expecting better
coverage today than in previous days.

Before an area might see relief from the heat thanks to increased
cloud cover and rain...cloudless skies will allow temperatures to
warm well into the middle 90s with some areas going into the upper
90s. Currently...forecast heat index values will stay a tad below
108 which is the criteria for a heat advisory in west central and
southwest Florida. Some isolated areas could see heat index values
of 108...but it should be short-lived. Will continue to monitor
temperatures across the areas as the morning progresses. With the
flow coming down the peninsula from the north...we could see some
areas warm above guidance due to moderation of the airmass by
diurnal heating. No updates planned at this time...but a heat
advisory may become necessary in the Nature Coast counties if
heating progresses faster than forecast.


VFR expected through the period...with showers and thunderstorms later
today. Light northerly flow will yield to a developing sea breeze
late morning into the afternoon. MVFR/IFR and gusty variability
possible with convection around terminals. Convection should
diminish by sunset.


a broad area of high pressure remains over the waters with the
center over the eastern Gulf. This will give the area a light
northwest flow today with dry air and a just a slight chance for a
few showers or storms. Expect the winds to increase late in the day
over the nearshore waters as the sea breeze enhances the flow. Over
all very light winds for the next couple of days. After a few days
the center of the high will shift north into the Gulf Coast states
which will increase the winds to moderate levels and turn the winds
to the north and then northeast by early next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 94 80 94 80 / 20 20 30 10
fmy 95 76 95 78 / 50 20 40 10
gif 96 77 96 77 / 30 20 30 10
srq 94 77 94 78 / 20 20 30 10
bkv 95 74 95 74 / 30 20 30 10
spg 93 82 93 81 / 20 20 20 10


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


Update/aviation...02/Garcia and 99/bhagwandin
decision support...57/McMichael

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