Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
355 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
Short term (today-sunday)...
a strong short wave aligned across the middle of the country will
deepen... move across Florida and the Atlantic coastal region and
spawn a coastal low over the Atlantic just east of Florida.
Although atmospheric moisture is relatively low... this will set
up an overrunning situation today with northerly surface winds
that become northeast and east at 925 and 850 mb with a
significant southwesterly middle level flow. As the day progresses
the clouds will thicken and lower with a chance for sprinkles. The
surface low over the Atlantic will develop and move northeast away
from Florida quickly but will pull down another shot of cold air
over the peninsula so temperatures will remain on the cool side.
Middle term/long term (sunday night-friday)...
middle-level troughing will remain over the eastern half of the Continental U.S.
Through midweek with a series of shortwaves moving through it. For
Sunday night into Monday weak high pressure will be across the
area...but a reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the
northwest and is expected to move through the region Monday night
and early Tuesday. Moisture will remain limited with this
boundary...but there should be enough middle-level dynamics to cause a
few showers Monday afternoon across the Nature Coast and across the
entire region Monday night before ending early Tuesday. Breezy west
to northwest winds will setup behind the front as high pressure
builds in bringing more cool and dry weather for midweek. Late in
the week the middle level trough will drift east and weaken some with
heights rising over Florida. Surface high pressure will move across
the eastern U.S. With a gradual moderating trend setting up allowing
temperatures to return to closer to normal.
VFR conditions continue early this morning with increasing clouds.
As the day progresses the ceilings will lower to MVFR and
possibly lower with showers this afternoon and evening then
clearing for Sunday.
the area of low pressure that will develop off the East Coast of
Florida tonight and move rapidly northeast will increase winds
above advisory levels tonight into Sunday. Another cold front
will move across the waters on Monday...however very little shower
activity if any will be associated with the cold front. Winds
again will likely increase above advisory levels late Monday and
persist through Tuesday.
no fire weather hazards expected through the period as relative
humidity values will remain above 35 percent each afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 60 45 58 45 / 40 30 10 0
fmy 67 51 62 43 / 40 40 10 0
gif 64 44 59 42 / 40 50 10 0
srq 61 50 58 44 / 40 30 10 0
bkv 59 42 56 36 / 40 40 0 0
spg 59 47 57 47 / 40 30 0 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...03/Paxton