Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
944 am EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Update...
forecast looks on track today...with numerous middle and high level
clouds moving overhead as a jet streak spreads out to the north of
Florida. Rain free conditions will persist today while an
inverted surface trough over the Gulf extends a weak and nearly
stationary frontal boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula.
Remaining patchy fog that impacted the region this morning has all
but dissipated...and temperatures are on track to warm up nicely
into the 70s...making for a pleasant afternoon with an afternoon
sea breeze.

Forecast problem of the day will be the period of unsettled
weather that will begin late tomorrow afternoon as the system in
the Gulf rakes across Florida...and will continue under building
moisture through early Wednesday when a strong cold front moves
through. Will continue to monitor model trends and update the
forecast as necessary.

&&

Aviation...
generally VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.
Some patchy fog will be possible again early Sunday
morning...though confidence is not high enough to include for any
taf sties at this time.

&&

Marine...
a weak frontal boundary will meander over the northeast Gulf through
the weekend...then move north as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday. A strong cold front will move into the western Gulf on
Tuesday then move rapidly eastward across the Gulf waters and
Florida Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong winds and
rough seas will begin to affect the waters Tuesday night and
continue through all of Wednesday. No changes needed for the morning
update.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 75 62 76 65 / 0 10 30 50
fmy 79 61 79 64 / 0 0 10 30
gif 76 60 77 63 / 0 10 20 50
srq 75 60 77 64 / 0 10 30 40
bkv 75 56 77 62 / 0 10 40 60
spg 74 62 74 64 / 0 10 30 50

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.

&&

$$

Update/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming
marine...11/mckaughan
decision support...69/close

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations