Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
916 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
showers have almost moved completely out of the forecast area this
evening...with generally rain free conditions expected overnight.
The cold front remains upstream but will continue to approach this
evening and pass through the forecast area by early morning.
Following frontal passage...will see a clearing trend along with
increasing winds on coastal and offshore waters. No updates to
current advisories tonight but will update zones to adjust rain
chances. Forecast is otherwise on track.
Much cooler air will filter into the area Thursday...with highs
reaching the low 60s to low 70s. Friday morning will be much
cooler...with low temperatures in the low 30s across northern zones
to around 50 south. The potential exists for frost across the
Nature Coast on Friday morning.
mainly VFR conditions so far this evening. As a cold front moves
closer to the region...brief MVFR ceilings will be possible for all
sites overnight before VFR conditions return. Winds will turn to the
north/northwest behind the front with gusts up to around 25 knots
through the morning hours with lower wind speeds expected for the
main concern overnight will be winds and wave heights. Winds are
currently from the west northwest at 20-25 knots...and seas will
continue to build to 7 to 8 feet overnight. Wave heights and winds
will remain elevated through much of Thursday. Current forecast
reflects this well...no major changes needed for the update.
Florida...rip current risk through Thursday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for Englewood
to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to Tarpon
Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tampa Bay waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to
Englewood out 20 to 60 nm-Charlotte Harbor and Pine
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.
upper air/data acquisition...24/Colson