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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
821 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

..dangerous marine conditions through early Wednesday...
..High surf and high risk of rip currents at area beaches through
Thursday...

Short term (rest of tonight)...
large scale trough continues over the eastern U.S. While an
embedded impulse of energy rotates through it/S base
tonight...sweeping along the Alabama/GA/FL line. This will help drive a
cold front southeastward across the area and into South Florida coastal
waters by dawn Tuesday.

Robust winds ahead of the front will be reinforced as the front
moves through which will result in elevated seas on the Gulf that
maintain high surf and a high risk of rip currents.

Moisture and energy with the front will be limited although
enough for some low odds of showers. Cold air moving in with the
front will keep lows below normal.

Current forecasts generally on track but precipitation has been a
bit slow to start and have adjusted this evenings weather
accordingly.

&&

Aviation...
09/00z-10/00z. A cold front tracks through the terminals tonight
with limited moisture and energy...there could be isolated rain showers but
with odds too low to include in the tafs. However anticipate some
lower clouds with broken MVFR ceilings late night through the morning.
Main concern will be robust SW becoming west-northwest winds with gusts as
high as 30kt.

&&

Marine...
offshore buoys have been reporting gale force gusts with seas in
the 8 to 12 feet range. Expect these to increase through the
night...supporting the Gale Warning. Winds slacken some Tuesday
although another front moving through will continue to produce
hazardous marine conditions. Next forecast out by 10 PM with only
minor tweaks in the first period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 50 58 44 58 / 20 10 10 10
fmy 55 64 48 62 / 20 10 10 10
gif 46 58 41 60 / 20 10 10 0
srq 54 60 48 61 / 20 20 10 10
bkv 44 56 38 56 / 20 10 10 10
spg 52 58 48 59 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Sarasota.

High surf advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High rip current risk through Thursday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Freeze watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning for inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60
nm.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for coastal waters
from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-coastal
waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out
20 nm-waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out
20 to 60 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 7 am EST
Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Tampa Bay waters.

Gale Warning until 10 am EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-coastal waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60
nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 nm-waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation/marine...09/rude
upper air/climate...25/Davis
decision support...24/Hubbard

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