Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
203 PM EST Friday Mar 6 2015
weak and shallow cold front was south of Naples. Real push of cool
air showed up as a line of isolated showers from near Daytona Beach
to Saint Petersburg. Visible satellite showed partly sunny skies
east and south of Tampa Bay. Temperatures ranged from the middle 50s in
Cedar Key to the lower 80s in Fort Myers.
Short term (tonight-saturday)...
cold front stalls along the Florida straights overnight as cool air
and low clouds spread into southwest Florida. Drier air slowly
begins to work into central Florida Saturday but mostly cloudy
skies to remain.
Middle/long term (saturday night-friday)...
changes in store as the persistent trough over the eastern part of
the U.S. Fills and flow becomes zonal aloft. A lower latitude short
wave will move across the Desert Southwest and into Texas Monday
then slowing down. A persistent middle/upper ridge across Florida and
the Bahamas will keep the trough and associated weather to the west
until next Friday. On Sunday the easterly flow will stream
cloudiness at times across the peninsula through Monday when the
winds become southerly and skies become partly cloudy. A slight
chance of sprinkles will continue through the week. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side. By Friday showers and thunderstorms
will be possible.
visible satellite showed low clouds off Tampa Bay and to the north.
Patchy fog persisted offshore of Fort Myers. Northeast winds to pick
up as high pressure builds in. Will issue Small Craft Advisory 20-60
nm offshore of northern zones and a small craft exercise caution
(scec)elsewhere. Winds and seas relax a bit Saturday but scec to
remain. Upper level ridge builds across Florida over the weekend and
keeps fronts out of the area.
cold front in far South Florida but push of cool air lags behind and
showed up as a narrow line of isolated showers from Tampa to
Daytona. Expansive deck of IFR ceilings to move into southwest Florida
by 04z...but visibility expected to be p6sm. VFR ceilings expected after
afternoon humidity dips below 35 percent near cheifland Saturday but
fuel moisture relatively high so no flag needed. Humidity increase
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 53 72 59 79 / 10 0 10 20
fmy 61 80 64 82 / 10 10 10 40
gif 54 72 58 78 / 10 0 20 20
srq 57 75 60 79 / 10 0 10 30
bkv 49 71 52 79 / 10 0 20 10
spg 57 71 62 77 / 10 0 10 20
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 am EST
Saturday for Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60
nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.
Short term/aviation/fire weather...72/Noah
decision support/long term...03/Paxton