Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
411 am EDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015
Short term (today-Wednesday...
a zonal flow aloft is slowing the forward progress of a weak cold
front over South Florida. The weak front is nearly stationary and
mostly discernable by a band of showers extending from the Gulf
across Lee County and towards the lake. The showers will remain
over the south but may intensify into thunderstorms during the
heating of the day. Other showers are possible in central Florida
inland areas. By Wednesday weak high pressure will settle over
North Florida with the frontal boundary and associated moisture
and showers remaining over South Florida. The weak pressure gradients
across the state will lead to light flow dictated primarily by sea
and land breezes. Temperatures will remain above normal.
Long term (wednesday night-tuesday)...
the flow aloft remains zonal to start the long term period as an
upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region flattens out. At
the surface...an area of low pressure over the northeast will
bring a cold front and higher rain chances to the area. There are
some differences as far as probability of precipitation...with the GFS firmly on the
wetter side of guidance. Will go along with the ongoing forecast
and stick with chance probability of precipitation for now. For the end of the
week...upper ridging begins to build over the area from the west
with less of a rain chance for Friday. The upper ridge will
flatten out for Saturday while at the surface...a low pressure
system and frontal boundary moves into the southeast...with a
chance for rain for about the northern half of the forecast area.
The boundary moves into the area for Sunday...keeping rain chances
in the forecast for the end of the weekend. Models are showing
another frontal boundary and increased rain chances for early next
week. Temperatures will continue to run above normal values
through the period.
MVFR ceilings are possible with some patchy fog toward sunrise.
Persistent showers will continue to occur near southern terminal
a cool front will become stationary over South Florida
through Wednesday keeping unsettled weather in the forecast. By
Thursday another cool front will approach the coastal waters and
pass through the state increasing winds for Saturday over the
northern waters... otherwise winds are not expected reach
moist conditions with light winds will limit fire activity over
the forecast area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 84 70 85 72 / 10 0 30 40
fmy 88 71 86 71 / 60 20 80 30
gif 86 68 88 69 / 20 10 60 30
srq 83 69 84 70 / 20 10 40 40
bkv 85 61 87 64 / 10 0 30 40
spg 83 72 84 73 / 10 0 30 50