Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
304 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Short term (tonight - tuesday)...
the short term forecast looks very similar to the pattern that
has been on going for the last several days. The surface ridge of
high pressure is positioned across the north central Florida
Peninsula...with light gradient flow that allows for strong sea
breeze circulations during the afternoon. Deep moisture has
allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop already this
afternoon...mostly along the West Coast sea breeze boundary.
Through the rest of the afternoon...thunderstorm coverage will
expand to numerous over the interior as the west and East Coast
sea breezes collide...before storm coverage tapers off shortly
Tuesday will be more of the same. A TUTT low west of the Bahamas
will inch closer but will have little impact on sensible weather
across the forecast area during the short term time frame. Lows will
be in the low to middle 70s over the interior tonight...and in the middle
to upper 70s along the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday are
forecast to generally rise to the low 90s.
Long term (tuesday night-monday)...
high pressure will ridge over the state and aloft from the
Atlantic through middle week. This will keep generally southeast flow in
place with afternoon sea breezes developing near the coast each
day. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. A TUTT low
will move over South Florida for Thursday and Friday as ridging
continues at the surface...lowering probability of precipitation just a bit as some drier
air moves over the area. The high pressure ridge builds over the
region at the surface and aloft for the weekend keeping the drier
air over the area. This will allow for isolated to scattered
afternoon storms for Thursday through Saturday. Moisture returns
for Sunday and Monday as a trough back builds into the area from
the NE. Rain chances will return to scattered and winds will shift
to the west. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s each
afternoon and in the 70s each morning.
scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to spread across
the area this afternoon with periods of IFR or LIFR conditions
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to clear out by 23-01z...with
chances lingering a bit longer over the interior. VFR conditions
should persist overnight...before thunderstorms return around 18z on
high pressure over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and
generally easterly to southeasterly through the next several days.
Daily sea breezes will turn winds onshore near the coast. Outside of
localized thunderstorms...expect winds to remain less than 15 knots
with seas no more than 2 feet.
no significant fire weather issues expected for the next several
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 77 92 77 92 / 10 50 20 50
fmy 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50
gif 75 93 74 93 / 30 50 20 50
srq 75 91 76 91 / 10 40 20 40
bkv 71 93 72 93 / 10 50 20 50
spg 79 91 78 91 / 10 40 20 40
Short term/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming