Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
305 am EST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Short term (today - Thanksgiving day)...
the leading edge of the cooler air is pushing through Hillsborough
and Manatee counties at this time. Winds shift smartly to the
northwest behind the line and will be quite gusty as well. One
would normally expect the leading edge of the cooler air to
coincide with the ending of the rain. In this case...however...we
will continue to see overcast skies with rain and embedded showers
for several more hours. A vigorous short-wave trough is moving
across the northern Gulf creating large-scale lift to the
northwest of the cold front. Cold cloud tops have been expanding
northwestward with time...and steady rains will be moving all the
way back into Levy County early this morning. The short-wave will
be lifting northeastward early this afternoon...finally bringing
an end to our rains. Skies will be clearing from northwest to
southeast today...but clouds may linger over our southeastern
zones until late afternoon. Winds may be strong and gusty early in
the day but will gradually diminish as developing low pressure off
the East Coast pulls away.

Strong rip currents are likely along the beaches today...and we
could see some high surf before the wave energy turns more to the
south and bypasses the coastline later today.

Any leftover clouds this evening will clear out by midnight
allowing temperatures to fall off fairly quickly. We could see
some middle 30s in the normally colder locations of the Nature
Coast...but most areas will stay above 40 degrees.

Thanksgiving day looks quite nice if not just a bit on the cool
side with lots of sunshine and temperatures mostly in the 60s.

Long term (thursday night through next tuesday)...
upper level pattern across the eastern Continental U.S. Begins to deamplify at
the beginning of the long term period Thursday night as the main
longwave trough axis pivots east and northeast off the Atlantic
Seaboard. Secondary cold front crossing the region Thursday/Thursday
evening will now be south of the region with one final surge of cold air advection
arriving on steady northerly winds. Thursday night looks to be on
the chilly side in the wake of this front...with widespread low
temperatures in the 40s...and even colder 30s to the north of the
I-4 corridor. Current forecast allows parts of Levy County to
approach freezing...but this will be a brief window around sunrise
Friday morning. Due to the tight gradient and persistent winds still
in place early Friday morning...will keep frost mention out of the
forecast. However...wind chill values are likely to be down into the
30s for many locations...with middle/upper 20s north of I-4 around
sunrise. The strongest winds with this cold air advection surge Thursday night into
Friday morning will be over the coastal waters where winds and seas
are forecast to approach advisory levels. Those with boating plans
late Thanksgiving day and night should be aware of these developing
more hazardous conditions.

Upper level pattern begins to flatten out over the eastern Gulf/Florida
Peninsula for the end of the week as surface high pressure builds to
the Georgia/Carolina coast. This pattern will provide a slow moderation
in temperatures into the early portion of the weekend with dry and
rain free conditions.

Global guidance GFS/ECMWF/Gem in agreement that the upper pattern
will become increasingly ridged in nature during the second half of
the weekend and early portion of next week...while at the same time
surface high pressure remains parked near or just offshore the southeast
Continental U.S. Coast. The stacked ridging will provide our region with
continued moderation in temperature back to normal or even slightly
above normal. The rain-free conditions also linger with very low
levels of atmospheric moisture and little to no synoptic forcing for
lift through the end of the forecast period.

&&

Aviation...
several hours of MVFR to IFR conditions are likely this morning
before clouds finally clear from northwest to southeast this
afternoon. Confidence in low clouds through 12z is fairly high but
timing of when these clouds will finally move out is low. Gusty
north to northwest winds will affect taf sites for most of the
day.

&&

Marine...
initial surge of north to northwest winds currently pushing
southward along our coast with winds rapidly meeting Small Craft
Advisory criteria. In fact...buoy 42036 has seen wind gusts as
high as 39 knots...and gale force wind gusts are likely in our
waters today.

We will see an initial lull in the winds tonight and early
Thursday before another surge of northerly winds brings hazardous
boating conditions back to the region Thursday night. High
pressure will finally settle into the Atlantic along 30 degrees
north latitude during the weekend bringing our winds back around
to the east at more favorable speeds for boaters.

&&

Fire weather...
very wet fuels will preclude any fire weather hazards for the next
few days. Humidities will fall to around 35 percent each afternoon
through Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 62 48 68 44 / 60 0 0 0
fmy 69 48 72 47 / 70 0 0 0
gif 67 45 68 42 / 80 0 0 0
srq 65 46 70 46 / 60 0 0 0
bkv 60 36 67 36 / 70 0 0 0
spg 62 54 67 50 / 60 0 0 0

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...rip current risk from 8 am EST this morning through this
afternoon for coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-
coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Flood Watch until noon EST today for coastal Hillsborough-
coastal Manatee-coastal Pasco-coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-
Hardee-Highlands-inland Hillsborough-inland Manatee-
inland Pasco-inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

High surf advisory from 8 am this morning to 4 PM EST this
afternoon for coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-
coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Englewood to
Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs
out 20 to 60 nm-Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to
Englewood out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...jillson
long term/decision support...mroczka

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations