Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
854 PM EST Friday Dec 26 2014
weak isentropic upglide is supporting considerable cloud cover
across the entire forecast area this evening with even some areas
of very light rain and drizzle noted on 88d returns across central
and southern locations. As for the rest of tonight expect little
overall change in current conditions as weak overrunning lingers
across the region. Given satellite and 88d trends during the
afternoon and evening hours have already bump up cloud cover in
the grids and will add sprinkles into the grids and zones for
central and southern zones as well in a late evening update.
In addition lowering temperature/dew point spreads combined with the light
northeast flow will favor some fog development overnight. Given
current cloud cover will keep fog coverage patchy in nature for
now...but the overnight shift will need to monitor and update the
forecast should the fog become more widespread than currently
forecast. Temperatures will range from lower to middle 50s north...to
the upper 50s to lower 60s central and south. Zone update will be
out by 930 PM.
prevailing MVFR ceilings will impact the terminals during the next 24
hours...with some MVFR/IFR visibilities from patchy fog and IFR/LIFR
ceilings from low stratus possible between 08-12z. Northeast winds in
the 4 to 6 knot range will become east southeast at 5 to 7 knots
after 16z on Saturday.
light northeast and east winds will continue overnight into
Saturday morning. Winds will become southerly around middle day
Saturday and this will bring increasing chances for sea fog
from late Saturday through Sunday as the warmer and increasingly
humid airmass overrides the cooler waters. No changes expected
in the late evening update.