Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1038 am EDT Sat Aug 1 2015
the forecast is on track this morning with widespread rains and
embedded thunderstorms moving across most of Levy County...then
scattered to numerous showers and storms moving onshore south of
Low-level convergence boundary between high pressure well to our
south and a trough of low pressure near the Georgia/Florida
border is aiding in the development of these storms over the
northern Gulf. This coupled with extremely high precipitable
waters /around 2.5 inches/ and divergent flow aloft is setting up
a very favorable environment for a heavy rainfall event. Most of
Levy County has picked up between 1 and 3 inches of rain in the
last 24 hours...but southern Levy into northern Citrus has radar
estimates of 5 to 9 inches. Cocorahs observations around that area
suggest the radar was doing a good job with its estimates.
Luckily...the heaviest rains this morning have been north of this
region...but we will be monitoring the area closely and issue
flood warnings if needed.
South of the Nature Coast we are expecting more transitory shower
activity...with individual cells moving fairly quickly from
southwest to northeast. This should limit any threat for heavy
rainfall amounts there.
The gridded forecast updates are out...mainly to show higher rain
chances through the day in Levy County. The text zone products
are still in good shape.
all taf sites will have the potential to see brief MVFR/IFR
conditions as scattered to numerous fast moving showers and
storms move across the state. Any IFR conditions would be very
short lived and do not intend to include in tafs at this time.
winds have been in the 15 to 20 knot range offshore with gusts to
over 30 knots in bands of showers and storms. Expect this to
continue through the day and will continue current headlines of
exercise caution. Seas are as high as 7 feet out at buoy
42036...but mostly 5 to 6 feet in our waters. We may need to issue
small craft advisories for waters north of Tarpon Springs later
this weekend as southwesterly gradient winds increase to 20 knots.
a Flood Watch is in effect along the Nature Coast for
Hernando...Citrus and Levy counties until 8 PM on Sunday evening.
Due to heavy rain the past couple of days...it will not take much
rain in many areas for significant flooding of streets and urban
areas to develop later tonight through Sunday.
A river Flood Warning continues for the Myakka River at Myakka River
State Park...Little Manatee River at Wimauma and Cypress Creek at
Worthington Gardens. The Myakka River will remain above flood until
further notice...while the Little Manatee River and Cypress Creek
will fall below flood by the beginning of next week.
The heaviest rains have shifted farther north along the Nature Coast
but the continued scattered showers and storms across central and
southwest Florida and runoff from heavy rainfall over the past week
will continue to produce elevated water levels for some local
rivers. All rivers will continue to be closely monitored for any
significant rise in water levels as rain showers and storms move
through the area.
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for coastal Citrus-
coastal Hernando-coastal Levy-inland Citrus-inland