Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
924 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
an impressive upper trough continues to roll eastward across the
Texarkana region this morning. This feature will continue to
generate impressive middle and upper level winds...with increasing
clouds and rain chances through the day and into tonight.
An area of shower activity is gradually moving east across the
Gulf waters this morning. While abundant dry air in the low levels
of the atmosphere will prevent much of this from reaching the
ground over the next few hours...gradual moistening of this layer
will eventually allow for some precipitation. For this...adjusted
probability of precipitation slightly to align with this area of showers eventually moving
into west central/southwest coastal areas this afternoon.
From this afternoon through tonight...the forecast looks to be on
track. Expansive cloudiness will set in by middle/late afternoon and
showers should increase in coverage. With virtually no
instability...would be surprised to see any thunder today. Though
perhaps a narrow corridor of potential will exist across mainly
south central/Southeast Florida this evening.
Aviation (12z tafs)...
an approaching upper storm system will induce widespread MVFR/IFR
ceilings this afternoon through tonight...with spotty shower activity.
Lowered ceilings look to build in by 18z to 20z...and prevail through
much of the overnight period. Visibility limitations should generally
remain marginal...with little to support heavier rain or thunder.
Northeast winds will quickly shift to the northwest this evening
and increase to between 10 and 15 knots...with higher gusts.
northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will be the rule for the first
part of today. As a storm system approaches the
region...widespread clouds and showers will overspread the
waters...with significantly increasing winds. This evening and
overnight...a strong front will move across the waters...bringing
advisory level winds and increased seas. Winds and seas should
subside during the day on Sunday...but quickly increase again late
Monday. A prolonged stretch of cautionary to advisory level
conditions then look to take shape from late Monday into
Wednesday...before gradually improving middle to late week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 60 45 58 45 / 40 30 10 0
fmy 67 51 62 43 / 50 50 10 0
gif 64 44 59 42 / 50 60 10 0
srq 61 50 58 44 / 40 30 10 0
bkv 59 42 56 36 / 40 40 0 0
spg 59 47 57 47 / 40 30 0 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
long term/decision support...18/Fleming