Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
332 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
..continued wet pattern today...
Short term (today-wednesday)...
deep tropical moisture will remain across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and the central Florida Peninsula today...with some drying aloft on
expected on Wednesday but still significant deep layer moisture will
remain over the forecast area.
A weak area of low pressure just northwest of Tampa Bay will
gradually lift north today with broad west to southwest flow
developing across the entire West Coast of Florida. Region of low
level convergence currently over and to the west of Tampa Bay with
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will also lift slowly
north today. Atmosphere remains unstable...shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity will expand in areal coverage during the
morning hours and spread north through the day. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the
remainder of west central and southwest Florida by this afternoon.
Pcpw values well above 2 inches will continue to create conditions
conducive to locally heavy rain and flooding. Due to heavy rainfall
the past several days...a Flood Watch will persist today from
Hernando County south to Lee County. The most likely region for
heavy rain today will be across Hernando...Pasco...Pinellas...and
Hillsborough counties where 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally
higher amounts will be possible.
West to southwest winds around 15 knots over the coastal waters will
create rip currents at area beaches today.
Long term (wednesday night-monday)...
upper-level high pressure over the central part of the country
will retrograde westward through the end of the week as weak
troughing remains in place over the southeast. At the
surface...the weak area of low pressure will remain across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north-central Florida through the
end of the week with the Atlantic ridge axis held south of the
state. Mean flow will be southwest to west between these features
and with high moisture in place (precipitable water values from
around 2 inches over southwest Florida to about 2.25 inches over
the nature coast)...expect numerous showers with some
thunderstorms for both Thursday and Friday...with slightly lower
probability of precipitation for southwest Florida. As we head into the weekend and early
next week...upper-level troughing remains in place across the
region with the surface feature continuing to meander around North
Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge
axis shifts northward through the end of the period...with wind
flow becoming more south to southwest. Although moisture values
return to more normal values...there would still be enough for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the end of
the period. High temperatures are still forecast to remain below
normal with all the cloud cover and rain while lows will be above
normal closer to the coast with onshore flow in place.
numerous showers today will create areas of IFR visibilities and MVFR
ceilings...while a few thunderstorms will create local IFR cigs/vsbys.
Outside areas of precipitation...VFR conditions will prevail with
local MVFR ceilings mainly this morning.
winds will remain 15 knots or less with seas 4 feet or less
through the period. Main hazard will be scattered thunderstorms
for the next several days which will create locally gusty
winds...rough seas...and frequent cloud to water lightning.
no fire weather hazards are expected as relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels through the period.
very heavy rain has occurred along the coastal
counties of west central and southwest Florida the past several
days. With the continued threat for heavy rain today...the Flood
Watch will continue for the coastal counties from Hernando County
south to Lee County through the day.
The Anclote River at Elfers crested Monday morning and has been
falling slowly since. However...if additional heavy rain falls
across the river basin today the river could hold at current levels
or rise again.
The widespread heavy rain has also caused the Little Manatee River
at Wimauma...the Myakka River at Myakka State Park...and Cypress
Creek at Worthington Gardens to rise above flood stage. There have
also been significant rises on the Alafia River...and if additional
heavy rain falls in the Alafia River basin today...the river could
rise above flood stage tonight or Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 84 78 88 78 / 80 40 50 40
fmy 88 77 90 77 / 40 20 40 30
gif 86 76 90 76 / 70 20 50 30
srq 85 78 88 78 / 60 40 50 40
bkv 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 50 40
spg 84 79 88 79 / 70 50 50 50
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Flood Watch through this evening for coastal Charlotte-
coastal Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Pasco-coastal Sarasota-inland
Charlotte-inland Hernando-inland Hillsborough-inland
Lee-inland Manatee-inland Pasco-inland Sarasota-
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...13/Oglesby