Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
930 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
Short term (rest of tonight)...
deep layer ridging continuing on the central Gulf Coast overnight
will dominate west central and SW Florida with light northeasterly to
easterly steering flow. Late afternoon and early evening today was
more active...shower and storms wise...that over the past few days.
However the storms were of the typical summertime variety with
only some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Westerly winds
will give way to light and variable winds for the night as the
afternoon sea breeze collapses. While a few storms continue overall
coverage is winding down and have made minor adjustments in the
forecast to reflect this.
through 23/00z. Late afternoon thunderstorms and rain at a few terminals have ended
with VFR over night...with light variable winds. After 22/18z
prevailing vicinity thunderstorms and rain for all terminals and northwesterly winds.
Limited MVFR/local IFR possible late in the period.
high pressure centered over the central Gulf of Mexico will keep
winds out of the north northwest direction below 15 knots and
seas less than 2 feet into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will
also remain minimal for the next couple of days with little more
than isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and storms
will increase Sunday and into the beginning of next week as a weak
cold front moves over northern Florida.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 93 80 94 / 20 30 10 20
fmy 77 93 78 94 / 10 30 10 20
gif 77 96 77 96 / 20 30 10 30
srq 78 91 78 92 / 20 30 10 20
bkv 73 95 75 95 / 20 30 10 20
spg 81 93 81 93 / 20 30 10 10