Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
440 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Short term (today-friday)...
for today...surface high pressure will remain over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico with a middle/upper level low over the eastern part of
the state. Convection for this afternoon will again initiate along
sea breeze and outflow boundaries. The best chances appear to be
farther inland...more into the center of the state. Similar to
yesterday...steering flow will be weak with storms expected to
propagate along boundaries through the afternoon and evening
hours. Otherwise the only other weather expected is patchy fog
this morning and again Thursday morning. Temperatures will remain
near normal for this time of year.
Thursday through Friday...
high pressure ridge axis will remain south of the forecast area
through the period...resulting in a dominant Gulf Coast sea breeze
which will push inland quickly each afternoon. Deep layer moisture
will remain limited on Thursday...so expect only isolated
shower/thunderstorm chances across the interior during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Somewhat deeper moisture associated with a
weakening cold front will push southward into the forecast area on
Friday...and this should result in slightly higher coverage of
shower/thunderstorm activity. With the Gulf Coast sea breeze moving
inland quickly once again on Friday...expect isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms across the interior...with rain free
conditions in coastal areas. High temperatures are expected to top
out in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast...with lows in
the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Long term (friday night-wednesday)...
model solutions are in good agreement showing high pressure building
north of the state Friday night and shifting the
weakening/dissipating cold front and deeper layer moisture south of
the forecast area. High pressure will then remain north of the
forecast area keeping a general east to southeast low level flow in
place across the state...and at the same time it will keep the
deeper layer moisture and higher surface dew point air south of the
peninsula at least through the Holiday weekend. As a result...will
keep the forecast rain free through Memorial Day...with slight
chance probability of precipitation moving back into portions of the area by Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week.
&&
Aviation...
tempo MVFR visibilities and ceilings are possible through this
morning at taf sites due to patchy fog. Otherwise mainly VFR
conditions are expected with some MVFR ceilings. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at all
sites after 18z as scattered thunderstorms form along the sea
breeze...with heavy rain and strong wind gusts possible near or
in thunderstorms.
&&
Marine...
high pressure will hold in place over the marine area through
Thursday night. A weakening cold front will then push southward
through the waters Friday and Friday night...with high pressure then
building north of the state over the weekend and into early next
week. An elevated easterly flow will set up beginning Friday night
as high pressure builds north of the peninsula. Winds may reach
exercise caution or advisory levels across portions of the waters
during the evening and overnight hours over the weekend and into
early next week. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below
headline thresholds.
&&
Fire weather...
humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds through the
end of the work week. A weakening cold front will move southward
through the region Friday and Friday night...ushering in some drier
air over the upcoming weekend. Afternoon humidity levels are
expected to drop to critical or near critical levels across portions
of the area Saturday through Monday.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 87 72 88 72 / 20 20 0 0
fmy 90 71 89 71 / 30 20 0 10
gif 89 70 91 71 / 60 30 20 0
srq 87 70 85 70 / 20 10 0 0
bkv 88 65 89 64 / 30 30 10 0
spg 86 75 87 74 / 20 10 0 0
&&
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&
$$
Carlisle/jelsema
