Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1017 am EDT sun Sep 21 2014

more dry air has worked into the Nature Coast overnight with
mainly clear skies here early this morning. Around the Interstate
4 corridor skies cleared overnight...but still enough moisture in
place to allow an area of low clouds to develop. Meanwhile further
south the band of deep moisture along and south of the stalled
boundary remains stretched northeast to southwest across our
southern interior and southwest zones with plenty of clouds along
with isolated to scattered convection moving in off the Gulf.

For the rest of today we will continue to see scattered to
numerous showers and a few thundertorms develop in the deeper
moisture and move northeast affecting mainly areas south and east
of the Tampa Bay area. The best coverage of this convection
should shift inland during the afternoon as the low level
southwesterly flow helps drive the West Coast sea breeze well
inland. Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm across the Tampa
Bay area north into the Nature Coast...but moisture is not as deep
and with the West Coast sea breeze expected to develop early may
not get enough heating to pop much convection. Have already
tweaked grids to show these trends and will update zones shortly.


an area of LIFR ceilings around the Interstate 4 corridor should
continue to erode this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and
an isolated thunderstorm will develop and move northeast affecting
mainly the taf sites from srq south this morning into middle-
afternoon then the majority of the convection should move inland.
MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the convection...
otherwise VFR should prevail once the low clouds dissipate around
the Interstate 4 corridor.


a stationary front across the area will dissipate as a cold front
in the Ohio Valley moves into the northern waters late Monday and
will stall across south floriday Tuesday. Winds and seas will
increase behind the front. Winds will remain below 15 knots with
seas 4 feet or less. The main hazards will continue to be higher
winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 87 74 86 73 / 40 20 60 40
fmy 87 74 88 73 / 60 20 60 50
gif 87 72 87 72 / 50 20 60 40
srq 87 74 85 73 / 50 30 60 40
bkv 89 70 87 68 / 20 20 50 30
spg 87 76 85 76 / 40 20 60 40


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.


Update/aviation/fire weather...69/close
decision support...11/mckaughan

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations