Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
341 am EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
..risk of rip currents at area beaches today...
aloft - ridging reached from the Gulf of California to the
central Canadian prairies while a long wave trough extended from
Quebec down through the appalachian chain to the southeast U.S.
Surface - high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes
sprawled down over the Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure off the middle-
Atlantic coast trailed a cold front down across the Bahamas to
Short term (today - sunday)...
the western upper ridge slides east and flattens some while the
trough deepens as it moves out over Atlantic coastal waters. As a
result the flow aloft becomes more zonal across the area with a
dry and stable airmass. The Great Lakes high pressure builds into
the Gulf today then takes a southeastward tack...settling in
across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic waters off the
southeast U.S. Coast.
The forecast is for clear/sunny skies and dry. Some robust
northwesterly winds...mainly on the Gulf...today will keep seas and
waves elevated with a high to moderate risk of rip currents at area
beaches. A beach hazard statement will be in effect through this
evening. Temperatures will be significantly below normal although a
warming trends begin Sun afternoon. The lows Sun morning across
northern Levy County will be in the middle 30s and could result in
isolated frost. But wind speeds and drier air would argue against
Long term (sunday night-saturday)...
surface high pressure will settle in over the area to start the
work week with a dry and mostly sunny day expected on Monday with
temperatures almost back up to normal values. A weak boundary will
make its way toward the area on Tuesday but will stall with flow
aloft becoming zonal. Will keep just a slight chance for showers
for the far northern portion of the forecast area for Tuesday. The
boundary will lift back northward on Wednesday as a shortwave
approaches from the west. Some differences in how models handle
the shortwave...so will keep with the ongoing forecast for now
which shows a slight chance for showers in the forecast for
Thursday. A cold front will approach the area for the end of the
week into the start of next weekend. Temperatures will warm to
normal by Tuesday and then rise to above normal values for the
remainder of the period. &&
28/06z-29.06z. VFR as few-scattered cirrus give way to sky clear. Northwest and
north winds back and become gusty late morning and afternoon.
high pressure building into the Gulf today will keep winds and
seas in Small Craft Advisory range for some locations through
this evening. The high begins to shift toward the state with a
relaxing gradient sun. The high moves out over the open Atlantic
during the early part of next week but ridges back to the Gulf
with benign winds and seas.
dry air during the next couple of days will preclude any fog.
Afternoon humidity drops to the middle 20 percent range today with
some robust winds...however recent rainfall produced low erc
values so no warnings are needed. Similar low humidity is
expected sun but with lighter winds. The winds will be robust
enough today for some higher dispersion values.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 68 48 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 75 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
gif 71 48 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
srq 70 50 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 67 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
spg 68 55 70 58 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk from 10 am EDT this morning through
this evening for coastal Charlotte-coastal
Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EDT this morning
for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 nm-waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for
coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out
20 nm-coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River Florida out 20 nm-waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Synopsis/short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...09/rude
long term/decision support services...05/Carlisle