Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
327 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Scattered sea breeze convection across portions of the Florida Big
Bend and adjacent far southern Georgia will diminish quickly around
sunset. Overnight lows are expected to be generally in the lower
Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
The long wave trough that has been present since last week will be
replaced with a ridge building in from the east. However a ribbon of
remnant +pv will continue to extend down from the Middle-Atlantic
States into our region at least through Tuesday. A weak surface
trough will also be found in this area. Additionally, the western
extension of the Bermuda ridge will be over or just south of our
coastal waters. Time-height cross sections and forecast soundings
show much drier air and erratic winds in the middle to upper levels
by Wednesday. Diurnal convection will be driven mainly due to the
sea breeze circulation with the best chances across our Florida
and lower tier Georgia zones. Maximum temperatures will warm into the middle 90s
inland areas both days with apparent temperatures over 100 degrees
for most locations as well.
Long term [thursday through monday]...
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east becoming
centered over the southeast Continental U.S. On Friday. The middle-upper ridge
will further amplify as it retrogrades to the four corner's area on
Monday. The tri-state area will reside under the eastern periphery
of the ridge by Sunday followed by a digging trough early next
week. Expect above seasonal temperatures and below climatology probability of precipitation at least
through the upcoming weekend.
[through 18z tuesday] scattered convection is expected this
afternoon across portions of the Florida Big Bend near klh
northeastward to near vld...but this convection will diminish
quickly around sunset. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to
Light winds and low seas will prevail at least through the remainder
of the week. Only slight enhancements in the afternoon seabreezes
are expected near the coast each afternoon.
We return to a more typical Summer pattern of scattered
thunderstorms. Relative humidity will stay above 40 percent so there
are no red flag concerns.
With a gradual drying trend over the next several days, river
flooding is not expected to be an issue. In general, there are no
foreseeable hydrologic concerns outside of possibly some minor,
localized urban flooding over the next couple of afternoons.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 72 94 73 95 73 / 10 50 20 40 20
Panama City 76 90 76 89 76 / 10 30 10 30 20
Dothan 71 95 74 95 73 / 10 30 10 30 20
Albany 72 95 74 95 73 / 10 40 20 40 20
Valdosta 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 50 20 40 20
Cross City 72 94 73 92 73 / 10 40 20 40 20
Apalachicola 77 93 76 90 76 / 0 30 20 30 20
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT tonight for coastal