Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
305 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
the 18z surface analysis shows the cold front extending from southeast
Louisiana across srn Mississippi and central Alabama to the
Tennessee-North Carolina border and northward into west virgina.
Low level clouds in place all day out ahead of it have prevented
US from warming as much as previously expected, so nudged Max
temperatures down and kept them in the 70s across the area. As the
front approaches, cold air advection will decrease temperatures
from west to east. Lows tonight will dip into the mid 30s to low
40s with warmer temperatures in The Big Bend region.
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
northwest flow and cold air advection will continue into Thursday
with daytime highs staying well below average. Then, as the center
of the surface ridge moves very close to the area on Thursday
night, conditions will become favorable for strong radiational
cooling with clear skies, dry air, and light winds. Guidance is
indicating the potential for temperatures to dip near freezing on
Friday morning. While we do not expect this to be a long duration
freeze, some temperatures in the normally colder location could
see a brief light freeze. In addition, some frost could also
occur. A warming trend is expected for Friday as high pressure
slides east of the area and return flow commences.
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
both the Euro and GFS indicate the next system will affect the
area around Sunday with an increased chance for rain. Dynamics
and instability look like they could be sufficient for some
isolated thunderstorms as well. The system is expected to be
progressive and clear out on Monday with dry conditions returning
afterward. Seasonal temperatures are expected.
[through 18z thursday] MVFR cigs out ahead of a dry cold front
will clear with the frontal passage this evening. Winds will
shift from the west this afternoon to northwest behind the front.
Winds will remain elevated through 18z thurs, with only a brief
few hour break overnight with winds still around 5-10 kts.
winds are expected to continue to increase tonight to solid
advisory levels and shift to the northwest behind a cold front. A
few gusts near gale force are possible. Winds are expected to drop
below advisory levels across the near shore zones Thursday morning
and farther offshore by Thursday afternoon. Light to moderate
winds and seas are then expected for the remainder of the period.
relative humidity values will drop to the 20s Thursday and Friday
as a cold, dry air mass overtakes the region. Alabama will be the
closest to their red flag criteria with relative humidity values
of 25 percent or less for right around 4 hours in Houston County,
slightly less in our other Alabama counties. In Georgia and
Florida, fuel moisture and erc values will not meet criteria
although 20 foot winds may be close, just shy of 15 miles per hour. Over the
weekend, relative humidity will increase and remain above critical
thresholds through the rest of the period.
recent rainfall amounts ranged from a quarter to a half inch
across the County Warning Area. This will have little effect on area rivers. Area
rivers should remain below flood stage through the weekend.
Several locations along the Apalachicola River and the Ochlockonee
are at bankfull, but no significant impacts are expected. The next
rain event is expected late Sunday and into Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 40 65 33 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 42 63 43 66 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 36 61 36 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 37 62 33 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 39 62 33 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 42 65 31 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 42 62 40 65 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for coastal
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Florida
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin Florida out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.