Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
636 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
[through 12z tuesday]... IFR ceilings have developed at aby this
morning and should clear out by 14z. Greatest chance of
thunderstorms at tlh, ecp and vld this afternoon, included tempo
groups for those sites with thunderstorms in the vicinity at aby and dhn.
Previous discussion [329 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
The upper low over Ohio will open and move northeast today. One more
shortwave will move through today before the persistent trough over
the eastern US weakens. Northwest winds in the 1000-700mb layer will
favor lower rain chances this morning and a 40-60% chance in the
Florida zones this afternoon. With 1500-2000 j/kg of cape and lapse
rates around 6 c/km, there will be enough instability for a few
strong storms. The main threat will be gusty winds in downbursts.
Highs today will be in the low 90s.
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
By tonight, the upper low over the Ohio Valley will have opened up
as it begins to merge in with the northern stream flow. A ribbon
of remnant +pv from this area of low pressure will be draped along
the Appalachians to the Gulf Coast. This feature will gradually
move east through the southeast and middle-Atlantic tonight through
Wednesday. However, it will likely not exit into the Atlantic as
deep layer ridging builds in from the east through the day on
Wednesday. The building ridge will force what's left of the upper
level anomaly westward, back through the southeast.
The aforementioned upper-level feature will combine with near, to
slightly above average precipitable waters and the afternoon seabreeze to keep
slightly above average rain chances through Wednesday. With
increasing heights through the period, temperatures will climb
into the middle 90s each afternoon. A muggy boundary layer will
force apparent temperatures over 100 degrees for most locations
each day as well.
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
In general, deep layer ridging will prevail through the upcoming
weekend. With the upper ridge directly overhead Friday and
Saturday. Near average rain chances should be expected up to the
end the week, with very low rain chances to start the weekend.
Into next week, models can't seem to agree on how long the deep
layer ridge will hold. Either way, near to below average rain
chances should be expected Sunday into Monday.
Afternoon high temperatures will warm through the week, and
should be quite hot to end the week. Upper 90s will be likely and
a few 100 degree readings won't be out of the question.
Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
Only slight enhancements in the afternoon seabreezes are expected
near the coast each afternoon.
We return to a more typical Summer pattern of scattered
thunderstorms. Relative humidity will stay above 40 percent so
there are no red flag concerns.
With a gradual drying trend over the next several days, river
flooding is not expected to be an issue. In general, there are no
foreseeable hydrologic concerns outside of possibly some minor,
localized urban flooding over the next couple of afternoons.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 91 73 94 72 93 / 60 20 50 20 40
Panama City 88 78 89 75 89 / 40 10 30 10 30
Dothan 90 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 30 10 30
Albany 91 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 40 20 40
Valdosta 91 72 95 73 95 / 50 20 40 20 40
Cross City 92 73 93 72 93 / 40 20 50 20 40
Apalachicola 89 77 90 75 90 / 40 10 30 10 30