Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
714 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
Aloft, broad trough dominates ern 2/3rd of conus with County Warning Area at its
base. At lower levels, low across southeast Georgia coast with cold front south-southwest.
Locally this translates to NE flow at lower levels and westerly flow
above 700 mb. Isold shwrs assocd with surface low might make it far
enough westward to impact our ern most counties. Otherwise no pops. We
expect increasing high clouds with lows around 70 degrees.
This is my last afd as I will be retiring (in 31/2 hrs) after 28 years
with National Weather Service (33 years with government). Its been a pleasure interacting
with so many National Weather Service staffers and our user community in each of my four
offices...NYC-JFK, Phoenix, San Juan, and since 1998 Tallahassee.
To the many I worked with in the outreach/eeo/diversity community
in all four offices, I end with....
Good bye...adios...addio...adeus...au revoir...zoo mus zoo...
Beannachy maith...farvel...tot ziens...bagay...gule gule...tam biet
[through 00z saturday]...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the taf period. There is a low end chance for afternoon
convection Friday at aby and vld. Winds will be light.
Prev discussion [241 PM edt]...
Short term [friday through sunday]...
Our recent run of unusually dry weather will gradually come to an
end this weekend as a fairly high-amplitude 500 mb trough
develops over the Ohio Valley, and extends southward to the
central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a frontal system (remnants of
the cold front that moved through our region Monday night) will
meander across our forecast area. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) do not
forecast a uniform, robust return of deep layer moisture, as both
models indicate a substantially drier airmass will remain across
much of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend through into this weekend.
In Georgia and Alabama for Friday & Saturday, the combination of sufficient
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing yields near- average
pops- in the 30-40% range, but only 20-30% in Florida. On Sunday we
expect a more uniform pop distribution for our whole region, in
the 40-60% range. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid
90s, "cooling" to lower 90s Sunday with more clouds. Lows will be
in the 70s.
Long term [sunday night through thursday]...
The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from Tennessee to the northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% pops).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
pops (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land breeze
circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will be
near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in
Typically low summertime winds and seas will continue through this
weekend as the surface pressure gradient will be very weak. Winds
will generally be from the south at 10 knots or less with seas 2 ft or
less, except for slightly higher values near the coast each
afternoon and early evening due to daytime heating.
With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.
With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 69 94 70 94 72 / 0 10 10 30 20
Panama City 73 89 75 89 75 / 0 10 10 30 20
Dothan 69 91 71 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 30
Albany 70 92 72 92 73 / 10 30 20 40 30
Valdosta 69 93 70 93 72 / 10 30 10 40 20
Cross City 69 93 69 93 72 / 10 20 10 30 20
Apalachicola 71 88 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 30 20