Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1031 am EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Near term [through today]...
light southeasterly flow in place this morning with warm and muggy
conditions to start off September. Observational data from the
ktae/kjax soundings shows a little more dry air has managed to
move into the region underneath the mid level ridge. This should
translate into less storm coverage today across the central and
western portions of our region. However, with an energetic East
Coast sea breeze expected to interact with The Big Bend sea breeze
late this afternoon, it appears as though the best chance for
showers and storms will be late in the day/evening hours from
Valdosta down to Cross City. These storms should weaken a few
hours after sunset while moving into Apalachee Bay.

&&

Aviation...
[through 12z tuesday]...
VFR conditions will prevail though much of the day. Thunderstorms and rain will
approach vld late in the afternoon with vc groups used for now.
Expect patchy MVFR vsbys to develop overnight once again.

&&

Prev discussion [226 am edt]...

Short term [tuesday through wednesday]... upper level high
pressure will remain centered over or near the forecast area
through the period. This will help to keep pops slightly below
normal with correspondingly above normal temps. Overall coverage
will be fairly uniform during the period, just slightly higher to the
east on Tuesday. A TUTT will approach from the southeast and reach
South Florida by Wednesday. However, this feature will have little to
no impact of the short-term forecast.



Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
the start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over
the southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the
East Coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting
Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low
70s.



Marine...
a ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping
winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of
course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon
and evening near the coast.



Fire weather...
despite drier air, relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds, preventing US from reaching red flag criteria
this week.



Hydrology...river levels will remain at their below normal levels
this week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 97 74 95 73 95 / 30 30 40 20 30
Panama City 92 78 91 77 91 / 20 20 30 20 30
Dothan 97 73 96 73 95 / 20 10 30 20 30
Albany 97 73 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30
Valdosta 95 72 94 72 94 / 50 40 40 20 30
Cross City 95 72 93 71 93 / 50 50 40 20 30
Apalachicola 91 76 91 76 90 / 20 20 30 20 30

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...high rip current risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for coastal
Bay-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...Godsey
short term...wool
long term...Weston
aviation...Godsey
marine...wool
fire weather...Moore
hydrology...Hollingsworth

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations