Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
908 PM EDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Near term [through tonight]...

Regional surface analysis shows a front draped along the Atlantic
coastline, then curving west-southwestward across central Georgia,
Alabama, and Mississippi and westward through the arklatex. Outflow
boundaries from this front have been interacting with the North
Florida sea-breeze this afternoon and caused another active day of
convection across the area. Storms are finally settling down for the
evening, but heavy cloud cover over the area will mean another night
with warmer temperatures- only dropping to the mid-upper 70s, around
80s along the coastline. Light winds and high humidity will mean the
potential for development of patchy fog in the late night-early
morning hours in south-central Georgia, possibly dense fog if the
upper level cloud cover clears up.

&&

Aviation...
[through 00z saturday] with light winds overnight and high humidity,
MVFR-IFR vsbys and cigs possible early Friday morning, particularly
in southeast Alabama and SW Georgia where showers are lingering this evening. Vsbys
will improve after sunrise and cigs will slowly lift through mid-
morning before thunderstorms begin to develop, which may once again
bring reduced cigs/vsbys and gusty winds.

&&

Prev discussion [326 PM edt]...

Short term [friday through Saturday night]...

Friday begins with an upper ridge exiting the southeast to the
west, and a broad trough covering the northern third of the
country, but also dipping down the eastern Continental U.S. Just short of the
southeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped
northeast to southwest from the NC coast to the la coast,
essentially bisecting the southeast. Out ahead of the front
remains the broad surface low/trough that has been aiding in
convective development over the past few days. These features will
move very little through Saturday night.

Pops will remain higher than typical for this time of year with
the two primary focus areas being the front (nw half of the area)
and the broad low pressure (se half of the area). High pwats
between 2-2.25" and deep warm cloud layers (12-15 kft) each day
would suggest the potential for heavy rain. In addition, although
there are small differences in the steering flow between models,
it is probable that steering flow may run parallel to each of the
forcing mechanisms making training and isolated urban flooding a
concern. The threat for severe weather remains low, with only
an isolated damaging wind potential likely attributed to water
loaded downdrafts.

Highs will still be able to reach at least the lower 90s, and
possibly middle 90s in a very moist boundary layer. Thus, heat
advisory conditions are not out of the question tomorrow, but for
now heat indices appear to top out just below criteria. Slightly
cooler temps on Saturday will likely preclude heat advisory
conditions.



Long term [sunday through thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the extending with the
persistent surface trough entrenched across the southeast. Pops
will remain above normal, with near to slightly below normal
afternoon highs.



Marine...

Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the weekend,
with high rain chances both day and night over the next several
days. On and off cautionary level winds will be possible east of
Apalachicola beginning Friday and lasting through early next week.



Fire weather...

No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.



Hydrology...

Five day estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is
likely along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
Elsewhere, 1.5 to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still
below action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast, river flooding is not expected; though isolated urban
flooding maybe possible in training or stationary storms.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 76 92 76 92 75 / 20 60 50 60 40
Panama City 79 89 78 88 78 / 20 60 50 50 40
Dothan 75 94 74 93 74 / 50 60 50 50 30
Albany 75 95 75 93 74 / 40 60 40 60 40
Valdosta 74 93 75 92 75 / 30 60 30 60 40
Cross City 75 90 75 89 76 / 20 60 60 60 60
Apalachicola 79 90 78 88 77 / 20 60 40 50 40

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Near term...Moore
short term...Harrigan
long term...Harrigan
aviation...Moore
marine...Harrigan
fire weather...Moore
hydrology...McDermott/Harrigan

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations