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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
325 am EST sun Mar 1 2015

Near term [through today]...

The 00z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between
about 1000-5000 feet agl, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of
numerical models maintain some weakly positive Omega in this layer
through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast
area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued
low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered
light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry
afternoon across the area, however.

The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of
the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best
chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in
sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and
west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to
Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in
high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees
in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions.
For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as
either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ecp-tlh-vld
line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high
temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in
these areas, generally 55-60 degrees.

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern Gomex. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.



[through 12z monday] LIFR to IFR ceilings will prevail over much of the
region early this morning, with ceilings gradually rising during the
daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR
range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day
at ecp, tlh, and vld. However, LIFR-IFR cigs are likely to build
back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals
should see some periods of -dz or -shra this morning.



Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


Fire weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated lvori values over much of the area.



Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 67 54 76 58 76 / 30 10 10 10 10
Panama City 64 55 69 59 70 / 20 10 20 10 10
Dothan 59 51 72 58 77 / 30 10 20 20 20
Albany 54 49 71 57 77 / 60 10 20 20 20
Valdosta 66 53 76 58 77 / 50 10 10 10 10
Cross City 74 56 78 59 77 / 20 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 67 57 69 60 71 / 20 10 10 10 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for coastal
waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Florida out to 20
nm-coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



Near term...lamers
short term...Barry
long term...Barry
fire weather...lamers

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