Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
652 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015
[through 12z friday]...
Restrictive ceilings and visibilities have stayed west of our
terminals this morning. VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms
today. Confidence is increasing that ecp and dhn will be the only
terminals affected by storms this afternoon. All storms and
associated restrictions should clear our terminals late this
Previous discussion [339 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
Aloft, southwesterly flow bisects the Continental U.S. Southwest to northeast
along and ahead of three distinct shortwaves over the Pacific
northwest, the southwest, and the Great Lakes/northeast region.
Over the southeast, a weak pressure pattern exists as the parent
shortwave departs to the northeast with only residual +pva into
the region. At the surface, the tri-state region remains on the
southwestern periphery of a ridge yielding east/southeast flow.
Through today, dry air off the northeast Florida coast will advect
westward and begin to overspread the local area. This will
result in a sharp pop gradient today with most convection taking
place west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany. Convection to the
west will be driven by the aforementioned weak +pva aloft, the
Panhandle seabreeze, and a weak surface trough currently moving
west across the northeast Gulf. Poor lapse rates will preclude
anything more than an isolated strong storm or two this afternoon.
As has been the case the past few days, average rainfall amounts
today will hover around an inch with isolated amounts in the 3-4
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
Convection should be fairly suppressed across the area from
tonight through Friday night as drier air continues to advect into
the area from the east. Some low (20-30%) probability of precipitation were included over
the far western sections of the forecast area on Friday afternoon,
but otherwise a dry day is expected. Isolated convection is
expected to return to the entire forecast area Saturday as the dry
air mass begins to modify. Temperatures should be slightly above
normal through the period.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
As a middle-upper level wave digs to the central Gulf Coast this
weekend and then settles across the region, deep but weak
southerly flow should develop next week. This pattern shift should
lead to increasing deep moisture and thus rain chances. We did not
introduce any likely (60+ percent) probability of precipitation into the forecast yet, but
the rain chances were bumped up to 50 percent along typically
favored sea breeze zones during weak southerly flow regimes.
Temperatures should continue to be near or slightly above normal.
Through the forecast period, winds should be below 15 knots and
seas 3 feet or less with both subsiding after the weekend. Showers
and storms should be more isolated over the next few days, with
increasing rain chances next week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
One more day of higher coverage of showers and storms is expected
today over western parts of the area, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Some isolated urban or small stream flooding can't be
ruled out, but widespread flooding is not expected. On Friday and
into the weekend, drier air will push into the area leading to
more isolated showers and storms and lower average rainfall.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 88 68 92 68 92 / 30 10 10 10 20
Panama City 83 72 84 71 85 / 60 10 20 10 20
Dothan 85 67 89 67 89 / 70 20 20 10 20
Albany 89 66 90 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
Valdosta 91 64 91 66 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
Cross City 90 63 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
Apalachicola 82 72 86 72 85 / 50 10 10 10 20