Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
342 am EDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Near term [through today]...

Rain chances will begin their increase to climatological means as
we finally begin to modify the dry airmass that has been in place
the majority of this week. Highest rain chances will be on the NE
periphery of our County Warning Area. A passing 500 mb shortwave moving east along an
eastern Continental U.S. Trof will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms NE of a line from Valdosta to Albany. The pop field
reflects this with a 20-40% SW-NE gradient. These pop numbers are
slightly higher than the cam guidance, but this is in line with the
cam performance yesterday in extreme NE regions of the County Warning Area.



Short term [tonight through sunday]...

A combination of upper level support from an eastern U.S.
Mid/upper trough will combine with a weak front, and disturbed
seabreeze circulations to yield near, to slightly above average
rain chances through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be near
average (lower 90s) each afternoon, with overnight lows in the
lower 70s.



Long term [sunday night through friday]...

The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from Tennessee to the northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% pops).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
pops (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land
breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures
will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and
lows in the 70s.

&&

Aviation...
[through 12z saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the taf period but
there is a chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity at aby, and vld late this afternoon.
There are no major cig/vis concerns but any terminals that receive
ts could briefly drop down to MVFR/IFR.

&&

Marine...

Low wind and sea conditions will prevail for the next several days
under a weak surface pressure pattern.

&&

Fire weather...

Summerlike conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
fire weather concerns over the next few days.

&&

Hydrology...

With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 95 71 93 72 92 / 20 10 50 20 50
Panama City 89 75 89 75 88 / 20 10 40 30 40
Dothan 91 71 91 71 90 / 20 20 40 20 60
Albany 92 71 91 72 90 / 40 30 40 20 50
Valdosta 95 70 95 71 95 / 30 30 50 30 60
Cross City 93 69 93 71 92 / 20 10 30 30 40
Apalachicola 88 72 88 74 89 / 10 10 30 30 30

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...Gould/Dobbs
short term...Harrigan
long term...Fournier
aviation...Gould/Dobbs
marine...Harrigan
fire weather...Gould/Dobbs
hydrology...Moore

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations