Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
With the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
coastal waters and cwa, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local cam guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
[through 00z wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR vis at vld towards
Prev discussion [344 PM edt]...
Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
a large upper level trough along the East Coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.
Long term [thursday through monday]...
the dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
pops below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.
offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.
although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any red flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled Burns.
dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 59 83 50 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 62 81 57 78 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 51 81 49 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 51 82 48 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 82 50 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 84 52 81 47 / 10 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 62 81 56 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 0