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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
903 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2014

Update...

No evening updates were necessary.

&&

Prev discussion [321 PM est]...

Near term [through tonight]...

With the surface high centered over the area, skies will be clear
and winds will be very light which will be a good set up for
radiational cooling. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low
30s inland and near 40 along the coast which is about 10 to 15
degrees below normal for this time of year. These low temps
combined with gradually increasing dewpoints will allow areas of
frost to develop across much of the interior overnight.



Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...

With sfc ridging remaining in control through the period, and the
current upper level trof (around 574-576dm) being replaced by a
586dm ridge, a steady warming trend is expected through the weekend.
After one last cold night tonight, overnight lows will moderate into
the upper 30s to the upper 40s from north to S on Sat. Night, and middle
40s to the lower to middle 50s on Sunday night. High temps will warm
steadily as well, with highs on Saturday expected to be in the lower
60s across NE portions of the region (and along the immediate
coast), to the middle to upper 60s elsewhere. On Sunday, highs
should once again surpass climo with generally lower to middle 70s
anticipated at this time. However, if the upper level ridging is
indeed this strong, would not be surprised if the current fcst for
Sunday aftn is a but too conservative, with the possibility of a
few locations (likely the Southeast Florida big bend) approaching the 80
degree mark.



Long term [monday through friday]...

Sfc and upper level ridging will generally dominate the synoptic
pattern through the period, with a prolonged stretch of fair weather
with above climo temps for both highs and lows.



Aviation...

[through 18z saturday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period with light winds and unlimited ceilings and visibility.



Marine...

As the ridge of high pressure becomes better established over the
coastal waters, winds and seas will continue to decrease through the
remainder of today, and then remain light to moderate for much of
the remainder of the period.



Fire weather...

Moisture values will steadily increase over the next several days.
This will preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions.



Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River at Thomasville should crest today and will
reach action or bank full stage at Concord and Havana on Sunday.
With no significant rainfall forecast, there are no other river
flooding concerns.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 31 67 41 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 41 63 51 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 32 64 43 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 30 64 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 31 64 40 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 30 68 42 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 41 62 51 69 56 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...Weston
short term...Gould
long term...Gould
aviation...Weston
marine...Gould
fire weather...Harrigan
hydrology...Weston

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