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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
226 am EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Near term [through today]...
another day with deep ridging of high pressure over the southeast
will allow for the sea-breeze to be the main driver of today's
weather. With the 1000-700mb winds being generally from the
southeast at less than 10 knots, we will see a regime 2 sea-breeze
day. This means chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
highest over the coastal waters in the morning, with afternoon
coverage filling in primarily in North Florida and in southwest
Georgia. Temperatures today will warmer than normal for the first
day of September, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices
around 100.

Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
upper level high pressure will remain centered over or near the
forecast area through the period. This will help to keep pops
slightly below normal with correspondingly above normal temps. This
evening's pops will primarily be the result of the Atlantic sea
breeze reaching south central Georgia and the eastern Big Bend. Overall
coverage will be fairly uniform after that, just slightly higher to
the east on Tuesday. A TUTT will approach from the southeast and
reach South Florida by Wednesday. However, this feature will have little
to no impact of the short-term forecast.

Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
the start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over
the southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the
East Coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting
Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low


[through 06z tuesday] with the exception of brief MVFR vsbys at
our northern terminals in the early morning hours, VFR conditions
will prevail through the period with light winds from the south.


a ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping
winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of
course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon
and evening near the coast.


Fire weather...
despite drier air, relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds, preventing US from reaching red flag criteria
this week.


Hydrology...river levels will remain at their below normal levels
this week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 96 74 95 73 95 / 30 10 40 20 30
Panama City 91 78 91 77 91 / 30 10 30 20 30
Dothan 96 73 96 73 95 / 20 10 30 20 30
Albany 96 73 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30
Valdosta 96 72 94 72 94 / 40 30 40 20 30
Cross City 94 72 93 71 93 / 40 30 40 20 30
Apalachicola 90 76 91 76 90 / 30 10 30 20 30


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...Moore
short term...wool
long term...Weston
fire weather...Moore

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