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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
840 PM EDT Wednesday may 6 2015

Near term [through tonight]...

The light showers we saw earlier this evening have decreased. Tonight
there will only be a slight chance of rain for The Big Bend area.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s.


[through 00z friday]... VFR conditions will prevail with light
winds. The only exception will be a brief period of MVFR at vld
and tlh near sunrise, mentioned fog in tempo groups for both


Previous discussion [309 PM edt]...

Short term [thursday through Friday night]...

A developing area of low pressure may stall as it approaches the
the coast of the Carolina's Thursday night or early Friday as high
pressure builds just north of the system. The GFS solution shows a
slow drift to the southwest Friday night. On this course, our County Warning Area
will experience hot and dry conditions due to a deep layer of
subsidence. Maximum temperatures both days will be in the upper 80s to around
90 with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...

The latest Euro and GFS initially differ with respect to to the stalled low
pressure system along or just offshore of the southeast U.S.
Coastline. However, both models eventually send the system to the
northeast on Monday as a cold front approaches. A gradual increase
in moisture is expected but we see only isolated to scattered
convection across the region early to middle next week. Temperatures
will continue averaging a few degrees above normal.


Light winds with low seas will continue for the next several days
in association with a ridge of high pressure over the area.

Fire weather...

Dry air remains in place through the period. Minimum relative humidity will be
in the 30 to 35 percent range on Thursday and Friday but will not
reach red flag criteria. Dispersion values will be high Thursday
and Friday afternoons due to high transport winds.


With no significant rainfall in the forecast and rivers
receding...there are no hydrology concerns.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 63 90 58 91 63 / 10 0 10 10 0
Panama City 64 84 63 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 88 59 92 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 59 88 57 87 64 / 10 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 61 90 58 89 64 / 10 0 10 10 10
Cross City 61 87 59 86 65 / 20 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 65 84 64 86 68 / 10 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...Weston
short term...Barry
long term...Barry
fire weather...Weston

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