Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
958 am EDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Near term [through today]...
sunny skies and cool temperatures are in place with a strong upper
trough stretched along the eastern Seaboard. Temperatures will
gradually warm into the 50s and 60s this afternoon. Middle- and
upper-level clouds will increase this afternoon as a potent
shortwave drops into the base of the trough. However, do not
expect low-level moisture and daytime heating to be sufficient to
trigger any showers with this energy, so have left probability of precipitation below 20


Previous discussion [453 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through monday]...

High pressure will settle into North Florida and south Georgia for
the short term period. As a shortwave approaches Monday there will
be a slight chance of rain. Temperatures tonight through Sunday
night will be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Temperatures
will begin to rebound on Monday with highs in the upper 70s.

Long term [monday night through saturday]...

A cold front will stall over the region on Tuesday resulting in
cool and cloudy conditions. Models show cyclogenesis in the
western Gulf in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. These
features will result in a slight chance of rain for most of the
long term period. Temperatures will return to seasonal levels with
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and lows near 60.

[through 06z sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with just a slight increase in middle and upper level clouds above
10 kft from northwest to southeast over the terminals by late this afternoon into
tonight. Northwest winds will be lighter today than they were on Friday,
but may still be a bit gusty at times this afternoon, before
diminishing again on Saturday night.


A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 8 am EDT
this morning before winds and seas decrease later today. Winds
will be 10 knots or less and seas will be 2 feet or less through
the period.

Fire weather...

Despite the very cool air over the region today, the very dry
conditions will drop afternoon relative humidities down to red flag
levels for 4 to 5 hours across parts of the Florida Big Bend and
Panhandle. However, only Wakulla County in the Florida Big Bend is
forecast to reach an erc of 37, so a red flag warning has been
issued for this County only for today. On Sunday, relative humidity values are
expected to be below critical levels even longer for a larger
portion of North Florida, and with erc values still quite uncertain
at this time, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for all of the
Florida Big Bend and Jackson and Calhoun counties in the Florida
Panhandle. Over our Alabama and Georgia counties, red flag
conditions are not expected to be met at this time due to the
different criteria.


Rain returns to the forecast on Monday...however totals are
expected to be less than an inch. With all rivers below flood
stage there are no flooding concerns.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 64 39 68 46 78 / 0 10 0 10 20
Panama City 63 45 65 56 75 / 0 10 0 10 10
Dothan 59 38 65 50 77 / 10 0 10 20 30
Albany 59 36 64 47 77 / 10 0 0 20 30
Valdosta 63 38 68 44 76 / 0 10 0 10 20
Cross City 65 38 69 42 76 / 0 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 65 45 65 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Calhoun-coastal Dixie-coastal Franklin-coastal
Jefferson-coastal Taylor-coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-inland
Dixie-inland Franklin-inland Jefferson-inland Taylor-inland

Red flag warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
evening for coastal Wakulla-inland Wakulla.



Near term...Camp
short term...Weston
long term...Weston
fire weather...Gould

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations