Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1033 am EDT Sat may 23 2015
No updates to the previous forecast were necessary this morning.
The previous discussions (below) remain valid.
Previous discussion [642 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
zonal flow aloft will begin to transition as ridging builds in to
the west. A surface high over Tennessee will keep US in an area of
easterly winds. Today will be mostly dry with only a 20 percent
chance of afternoon thunderstorms for the Florida zones. Highs
today will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
the upper low out west will lift northeast to the northern plains by
Monday as the trough axis moves out into the Great Plains. The
downstream ridge will initially amplify over US late in the weekend
before move east of the area. Surface high pressure north of the
region will be centered off the middle Atlantic coast by tonight and
then slide only slowly southward through Monday. This will veer
winds around to the east and eventually to the southeast. This
evolution of the large scale pattern will mean a gradual increase in
humidity and rain chances through the remainder of the Holiday
weekend. Temperatures will return to the above normal levels that
have been so common this Spring.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
the upper trough over the plains will open up as it moves east, but
weak troughing will be the rule later in the work week. The surface
ridge will move little during the week with low level flow
continuing out of the east-southeast. Daily chances for showers and storms can
be expected, slightly higher west than east with a slight drying
trend late in the week. Temperatures will remain above normal,
especially at night.
[through 12z sunday]... VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the period with easterly winds around 10 knots.
as high pressure moves off the middle Atlantic coast, easterly winds
will surge to cautionary levels overnight. After a brief lull during
the afternoon, another surge will occur Sunday night. Periods of
light to moderate mainly southeast winds will then persist into
while relative humidity values will be safely above minimum criteria, dispersion
indices will be well over 75 Saturday and Sunday due to high
with area rivers at normal flow levels and widespread heavy rain
not expected next week, flooding is not anticipated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 90 71 91 73 91 / 0 10 20 20 40
Panama City 87 73 85 74 84 / 20 10 20 20 40
Dothan 88 67 90 69 88 / 0 10 20 20 50
Albany 89 65 89 69 90 / 0 10 20 20 40
Valdosta 89 66 90 69 89 / 0 10 20 20 40
Cross City 91 68 91 69 91 / 30 20 20 20 30
Apalachicola 86 75 87 76 87 / 10 20 20 30 30
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for coastal