Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
829 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016
Near term [through tonight]...
The current forecast is on track, and we expect clear skies and
temperatures near freezing by dawn.
Prev discussion [631 PM est]...
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a Point of the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the tri-state region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
Long term [monday through friday]...
A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the tri-
state region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, quantitative precipitation forecast is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
[through 00z saturday] unrestricted vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over North
Florida and south Georgia on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at ktlh and kvld. Light rain will develop at kvld
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect vis. Light
north winds (less than 10 kt) will persist through the period.
Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.
In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 31 50 35 56 39 / 0 10 0 0 0
Panama City 35 55 41 57 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 31 54 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 28 51 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 34 46 36 54 37 / 0 30 20 0 0
Cross City 34 52 38 56 40 / 0 30 20 0 0
Apalachicola 35 56 41 57 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...freeze warning from 1 am EST /midnight CST/ to 8 am EST /7 am
CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
inland Bay-inland Franklin-inland Gulf-inland Jefferson-
inland Taylor-inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
High rip current risk until 1 am EST Saturday for coastal Gulf.
Georgia...freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
Alabama...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 7 am CST Saturday for