Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
aside from the possibility of isolated showers over our coastal
waters, no rain is expected for the area tonight. Deep layer ridging
will continue to build through the weekend, leaving US with another
cool and clear night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s
along the immediate coastline.
[through 00z saturday] a brief period of MVFR visibility is expected
at vld before sunrise sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be
spreading northward from the Gulf of Mexico from the late morning
through afternoon hours. Overall coverage of storms will be pretty
high and warranted an explicit mention in the tafs. MVFR conditions
will be possible in the convection.
Prev discussion [258 PM edt]...
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
a weak tropical wave is forecast to lift north across the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, pushing well inland by late Saturday. With a
ridge building aloft over the region through the weekend, the best
lift associated with the wave will likely be west of the forecast
area. However, expect to see deep layer moisture increase from
south to north across the area during the day on Friday, with
higher rain chances primarily over the southern half of the
area. The deep moisture will remain in place through Saturday,
with good chance to likely pops in the forecast once again.
Temperatures will vary from north to south on Friday, with higher
Max temps across Georgia/Alabama where pops will be lower (lower
90s vs. Mid 90s). With more widespread coverage on Saturday, high
temps should only reach the lower 90s everywhere.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, pops
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
winds will turn to the southeast tonight and then south on Friday
as a weak tropical wave moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The onshore flow, which should remain below 15 knots, will
continue into early next week.
increasing moisture with higher relative humidity values will
return beginning Friday. No fire weather at least through the
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average Summer.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 68 93 74 92 74 / 10 50 30 50 30
Panama City 75 91 77 89 77 / 10 60 40 50 30
Dothan 68 95 74 92 73 / 0 30 20 60 30
Albany 66 96 73 93 74 / 0 20 20 60 40
Valdosta 66 94 72 93 72 / 0 40 20 50 30
Cross City 70 92 73 92 72 / 10 50 40 50 20
Apalachicola 73 89 76 89 76 / 10 60 40 40 20