Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1132 am EST sun Feb 1 2015

Near term [rest of today]...

Although the synoptic surface cold front is still well to our west,
in Arkansas and NE Texas as of 16z, northward low-level moisture
flux to the west of aby-tlh is contributing to increasing low
stratus and some light showers. A larger area of rain and showers
was situated just to our west, and that is expected to pivot into
southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon.
Models are in fairly good agreement with respect to timing of the
primary band of rain. Therefore, we sharpened up the timing of
highest pops in the forecast grids and that should be reflected in
the new update. In general, the best rain chances prior to 00z
will be west of a Panama City to Blakely line. By 06z, they should
advance into the Apalachicola, to Tallahassee, to Tifton corridor,
exiting the remainder of our area late in the overnight hours or
early Monday morning. Marginal instability should support some
embedded thunderstorms.

With the increasing stratus in the western-most counties in our
area, and rain expected to begin shortly, we lowered temperatures
for the rest of the day. 16z temperatures were in the upper 50s to
lower 60s, and they shouldn't get much higher than that.
Elsewhere, it will be a warm January day with highs around 70.

&&

Prev discussion [322 am est]...

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...

A cold front will be progressing through the area tonight with
numerous showers across the area. Instability looks limited, so
severe weather is still not expected, although an isolated rumble
of thunder remains possible. Some showers are expected to linger
across the eastern half of the area on Monday morning with
clearing area-wide on Monday afternoon. A light freeze is possible
behind the front for Monday night with high pressure and mostly
sunny skies on Tuesday.



Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...

The pattern remains progressive with the next system still on track
to affect the area in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. While
there are still some timing differences in the guidance, the
highest pops currently appear to be Wednesday night into Thursday
across the area. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have the area of low
pressure staying offshore with warm frontal rain, so instability
looks too low to support any mention of thunder over the land area
at this time. Although another brief cool down is expected behind
this system, there doesn't appear to be any Arctic air on the
horizon for the next several days.



Aviation...

[through 12z monday] clouds will increase with ceilings possibly
lowering to IFR levels at dhn around daybreak and spreading
eastward to eventually include the remainder of the terminals by
late afternoon/early evening. Light rain will also overspread the
region today and tonight with a few thunderstorms possible mainly
at the dhn and ecp terminals. Winds will be gusty and southerly
today.



Marine...

Advisory conditions are likely through Monday both ahead of and
behind a cold front across most of the area. Strong southerly
winds ahead of the front today will shift to the northwest behind
the front on Monday with seas of 5 to 7 feet across most of the
area. Some improvement is expected for Tuesday before another
increase in winds and seas is possible by mid to late week as
another area of low pressure moves through the region.



Fire weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected at least through the upcoming
workweek.



Hydrology...

The first system for this afternoon through Monday morning is
expected to produce mainly less than 1" of rain across the area,
although a couple of isolated amounts heavier than 1" are possible
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is
expected to produce a bit more rainfall with a general 1-2"
possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 70 58 61 31 58 / 20 80 40 0 0
Panama City 67 54 58 35 55 / 70 80 30 0 0
Dothan 62 48 51 30 55 / 80 80 20 0 0
Albany 70 52 55 29 54 / 40 80 30 0 0
Valdosta 72 58 60 32 57 / 10 80 50 0 0
Cross City 72 60 63 31 61 / 10 70 60 0 0
Apalachicola 66 59 62 35 55 / 50 70 40 0 0

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal Bay-coastal
Franklin-coastal Gulf-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for coastal waters
from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Florida out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



&&

$$

Near term...lamers
short term...dvd
long term...dvd
aviation...Barry
marine...dvd
fire weather...Barry
hydrology...dvd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations