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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
956 am EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Near term [through today]...
the weakening cold front and upper trough continue to push through
the forecast area this morning. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the weak upper troughing.
Therefore, a 20 pop was inserted through the early afternoon
across portions of the Florida Big Bend and adjacent southern
Georgia. Otherwise, highs will still be rather mild, with
afternoon temps ranging from the mid 70s to the northwest to the lower
80s well to the se, with the much more significant cooling
expected for tonight.


[through 12z friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed west of tlh and
vld this morning, but any impact from these should be very brief.


Prev discussion [409 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through saturday]...

Tonight, a weak upper level wave will move off the Florida/Georgia
coastline, slightly strengthening an already present area of surface
low pressure off the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines. The main
effect locally will be to continue forcing dry boundary layer air
through through the tri-state region and into the southeast Big
Bend. Lows should fall into the 40s for most locations away from
the coast.

Friday, a very strong +pv anomaly will deepen and amplify the
broad eastern Continental U.S. Trough as it dives through the Great Lakes
region and into the Midwest. While heights aloft will lower
through the day, 850mb temps should be near average. With ample
mixing expected under strengthening northwesterly flow, we should
be able to tap into the near normal low-layer temperatures keeping
highs right around, or just below average for this time of year.

An unseasonably strong (but dry) cold front associated with the
aforementioned northern stream anomaly, will pass through the tri-
state region Friday night. Cold air advection will commence and increase through
the night. This should drive lows down into the upper 30s across
much of southeast Alabama and south Georgia, with low 40s expected

On Saturday, heights will be at their lowest as the deepest part
of the trough nears the region. At the surface, strong Arctic high
pressure will overspread the region ushering in quite strong and
gusty surface winds which will continue the strong cold air advection. It is
possible that only the southeast Big Bend of Florida will break
into the 60s for highs on Saturday, with most locations remaining
in the upper 50s.

Long term [saturday night through thursday]...

For Saturday night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer
which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced
mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast
period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This
could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but relative humidity
values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that,
a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +nao/+ao
state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into next
week with continued dry weather.


Cautionary level winds are expected today in the wake of a weak
cold front. Winds will subside to just below headline levels
tonight through Friday, but a strong cold front passing through
Friday night is expected to increase winds and seas to solid
advisory levels through Saturday. Gusts to gale force will be
possible as well.

Fire weather...

As mentioned above, much drier air will be moving into the region
today, and this will be re-enforced dramatically by a very strong
dry cold front this weekend. While earlier it appeared as though red
flag conditions would be likely for a good portion the tri-state
area at some point, the unseasonably chilly afternoon temperatures
may keep the red flags at Bay.


Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 78 46 74 42 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 78 50 74 45 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dothan 74 44 73 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 75 44 73 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 78 49 73 41 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 53 75 47 61 / 30 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 78 53 73 47 59 / 20 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...dvd/Gould
short term...Harrigan
long term...lamers
fire weather...Gould

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