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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
306 am EST Fri Dec 26 2014

Near term [through today]...

High pressure at the sfc and upper level ridging will bring quiet
weather today. Mostly sunny skies today. The only exception is that
the Panhandle coast may see some clouds roll in from the Gulf in the
afternoon hours. Temps will be seasonable with highs in the 60s.

Short term [tonight through sunday]...

Despite the fact that we just survived some record breaking December
rainfall amounts over a very short period of time, it appears that
additional unsettled weather appears on track over the southeast US for the
short term period. However, the next low pressure system that will
be approaching from the west is significantly weaker than the last
system to affect our region, and as time GOES on, it appears more
and more likely that fairly strong upper level ridge over the
Bahamas will both serve to weaken this system and keep the highest
rainfall totals off to our northwest. In fact, our initial
estimates of storm total rainfall through Sunday only range from
less than 0.20" across the southeast 1/2 of the cwa, to between 0.75 and
1.00" across extreme northwest sections of southeast Alabama. Furthermore, if the
current model trends continue to persist, these amounts may have to
be lowered even further. Temps will also be well above normal
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the middle
60s over southeast Alabama to the middle 70s over the Southeast Florida Big Bend, with highs
on Sunday in the mid to upper 70s across the entire region, which is
well above normal for this time of year.



Long term [sunday night through friday]...

Much as in the short term period, conditions do appear a just a bit
unsettled over the extended fcst as well, but just as we mentioned
above, a lot of this unsettled weather appears to be losing its
steam as time GOES on (with pops dropping from the 30s and 40s down
into the slight chance 20s), which is certainly good news for those
on extended Holiday breaks. Furthermore, the well above normal
temperatures show no sign of going away anytime soon, with both highs
and lows likely to average at least 10 degrees above normal, with
absolutely no freezing temperatures in sight across any parts of the
County Warning Area.

&&

Aviation...

[through 06z saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light and easterly.

&&

Marine...

With fairly weak high pressure ridging initially centered off to our
east, generally light to moderate onshore flow with low seas will
dominate the coastal waters for the first half of the upcoming week.
Beyond this current forecast, however, a significant tightening of
the pressure pattern may occur by the middle and end of next week,
which may cause some sharp rises in winds and seas.

&&

Fire weather...

Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend
will keep red flag conditions away for the next week. With low
mixing heights and relatively low transport winds during the day on
Friday and Saturday, low dispersion values are expected.

&&

Hydrology...

Recent heavy rainfall has resulted in sharp rises along many of our
area rivers. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast for points along
the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Sopchoppy, Withlacoochee, and
Apalachicola rivers as well as the Kinchafoonee creek. Most points
are still rising, although a few points have already crested or will
crest today. Our next round of rain will start this weekend and we
may see an additional 1-2" of rain from it, which will keep river
levels high.

For the most up to date information, please visit:
http://www.Water.Gov/ahps2/index.Php?Wfo=tae



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 65 46 71 55 76 / 0 10 30 30 20
Panama City 65 52 67 59 73 / 0 20 50 40 20
Dothan 62 47 64 56 74 / 0 10 60 50 40
Albany 63 43 67 53 76 / 0 0 40 40 30
Valdosta 64 44 70 55 77 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 69 46 75 56 78 / 0 10 20 10 10
Apalachicola 62 52 66 59 70 / 0 10 40 20 20

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...McDermott
short term...Gould
long term...McDermott
aviation...McDermott
marine...Gould
fire weather...McDermott
hydrology...McDermott

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