Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
605 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

[through 12z monday] ceilings will bounce between MVFR and IFR again
today with light rain/drizzle in the morning, especially at aby and
vld. Showers will be possible near dhn and aby this afternoon, but
is more likely to be just north of our forecast area, so did not put
as prevailing in the tafs.


Prev discussion [345 am edt]...

Near term [through today]...

The strong upper level +pv anomaly over the tri-state area will
finally drift eastward towards Jacksonville today, making upper
level winds more northerly across the entire forecast area. This
shift in the upper level impulse will change the orientation of the
lower level jet over the coastal Carolinas from easterly to
northeasterly and shift the surface trough further southwest towards
our local area. Locally, this will mean increased advection of
warmer, moister air into our northwestern zones and wedging of
cooler air into our eastern zones. Chances for rain today will be
greatest in our northern tier of counties near the surface trough
boundary. Highs today will be cooler in south central Georgia,
hovering around 70 at best, with low to mid 70s over the rest of the

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...

The nwp model consensus has a 500 mb low centered at the
Jacksonville coast this evening, translating to a position off Cape
Hatteras by Tuesday evening. At the surface, a trough will translate
south of our region this evening. Multiple surface lows will develop
within a broad gyre off the southeast coast to begin the work week.
Isentropic ascent will persist across the eastern half of our
forecast area through Monday, mainly in Georgia where there will be a
better combination of lift and moisture. Fair weather, accompanied
(finally) by a decrease in clouds is expected on Tuesday, as 500 mb
heights begin to rise over our area. Highs will be a bit below
average Monday, ranging from the lower 70s north of Valdosta to mid
to upper 70s in Florida. Highs on Tuesday will recover to near-average
levels, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...

The global models continue to forecast a deep layer ridge over the
southeast for most of the upcoming work week, with fair weather and
mild temperatures. Highs will be in the 80-85 range. Lows will be in
the lower 60s mid week, then mid 60s by next weekend. Slight pops
will be introduced to the forecast next weekend, as a modest 500 mb
trough approaches from the northwest.


Moderate to occasionally rather strong north-northwest winds will persist
through Monday night as the pressure gradient remains relatively

Fire weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above 50% for the next several
days therefore red flag conditions will not occur.


The only river still at action stage was the Choctawhatchee River at
Bruce, and it is likely to remain at action stage for much of this
week. The rain expected today through Monday (mainly in ga) will be
a quarter of an inch or less, and occur in an area that didn't get
as much rain last week as other parts of our forecast area. Thus we
don't expect much response from these rivers. Little if any rain is
expected from Tuesday through Friday, which will allow the higher
flow rates in several of the rivers to work their way down stream.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 73 65 77 64 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
Panama City 74 66 77 65 80 / 10 20 10 10 10
Dothan 72 64 74 61 80 / 30 20 10 10 10
Albany 71 64 72 62 79 / 40 30 10 10 10
Valdosta 72 63 74 62 78 / 10 40 30 20 10
Cross City 76 63 80 64 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
Apalachicola 75 65 77 64 79 / 20 20 10 10 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...Moore
short term...Fournier
long term...Fournier
fire weather...Moore

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations