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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
930 am EST Fri Nov 28 2014

Near term [through today]...

With high pressure settling over the area, the previous forecast
is on track. Highs will be in the mid 50s which is about 10 to 15
degrees below normal.



The Ochlockonee River at Thomasville should crest today and will
reach action or bank full stage at Concord and Havana on Sunday.
With no significant rainfall forecast, there are no other river
flooding concerns.


Prev discussion [340 am est]...

Short term [tonight through sunday]...

The relatively cold weather pattern will continue tonight with a
light freeze for most inland areas along with areas of frost. On
Saturday, the surface ridge slides further east with low level flow
becoming onshore. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will be building in
from the west with deep layer ridging firmly in place on Sunday.
This will mean dry conditions along with a warming trend. Highs will
be in the mid 60s most areas Saturday and the lower to mid 70s on
Sunday. Lows Saturday will be in the lower to mid 40s inland areas
and around 50 along the coast.

Long term [sunday night through friday]...

The deep layer ridging will begin to break down and move east as a
short wave trough approaches and enters our caw Monday night and
Tuesday. However, with deep moisture lacking and weak upper level
forcing we currently don't see much opportunity for rain with this
feature. As the trough passes to our east on Wednesday, the
mid/upper level flow becomes nearly zonal through the remainder of
the week. Lows will be near average through the period, generally in
the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs will also be near average, in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.



Advisory conditions will persist beyond 20 nm offshore through
this morning, followed by a decrease in winds and seas for the
weekend into early this week.


Fire weather...

A moderately dry air mass will linger over the region through the
weekend, but relative humidity will not reach critical levels.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 56 30 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 55 41 65 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 54 34 66 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 53 31 64 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 54 32 65 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 58 31 68 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 57 42 64 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for waters
from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



Near term...Weston
short term...Barry
long term...Barry
fire weather...lamers

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