Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
814 PM EDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
high pressure prevails across the region this evening with much
drier conditions than we've had for the past few days. Some middle
level cloudiness will move over the region overnight, which may
limit how low temperatures will drop overnight. But nevertheless,
overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s should be common over the
[through 00z thursday]...VFR conditions will prevail through the
Previous discussion [344 PM edt]...
Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...
The surface high will begin to break down at the beginning of the
short term period while flow will remain zonal aloft. Starting
Wednesday night winds will shift onshore bringing moisture and signaling
the end of the short dry period. Rain chances will be in the 20 to
40 percent range on Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.
Long term [friday through tuesday]...
Showers and thunderstorms will return on Friday and Saturday as a
shortwave moves through. With southerly winds bringing plenty of
moisture and sufficient instability, strong to severe storms are
possible again on Friday and Saturday. Sunday and Monday look to
be drier with only a slight chance of rain before the next system
arrives on Tuesday. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will remain
above average in the upper 60s. After the passage of the cold
front on Saturday, temperatures will be slightly cooler.
Winds will be light and seas will be relatively calm through
Thursday. Winds and seas will pick up Friday night ahead of a cold
front. Chance of showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night
and stays through the weekend.
Another day of dry conditions is expected on Wednesday across the
region with relative humidity values dropping below 40 percent.
Rain chances return on Thursday as moisture begins to increase
throughout the remainder of the week.
The chochtawhatchee river at Geneva should crest later this evening
just below flood stage. Water levels will continue to rise
downstream from Geneva with minor flooding expected to continue
throughout the Florida portion of the river basin. As the crest wave
moves downstream, moderate flooding is expected at Bruce later this
Releases from Woodruff are peaking around 58kcfs this afternoon
which suggests that Blountstown will eventually crest near 18.7 feet
on Wednesday evening.
The Kinchafoonee creek will continue to rise near Dawson but it
looks as though the river will generally stay just below flood
Elsewhere across the region, runoff from rains earlier this week has
resulted in several points reaching action stages, particularly in
the Ochlockonee River. However, with no significant rainfall
expected for the next few days, no additional river flooding is
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 55 86 64 83 67 / 0 10 20 30 10
Panama City 60 78 69 78 69 / 0 10 30 40 10
Dothan 56 82 62 81 63 / 0 10 20 30 10
Albany 55 85 62 81 60 / 0 10 20 30 10
Valdosta 55 85 61 83 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
Cross City 57 87 64 83 67 / 0 10 20 30 10
Apalachicola 59 80 69 80 71 / 0 10 30 40 10