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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
931 am EST Sat Nov 28 2015

Near term [through today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong cold front
translating very slowly southeastward near the western borders of
TN, northwest MS, and la. Much of the southeast was dominated by a
large region of higher pressure. With little in the way of q-g
forcing and a dry airmass across our forecast area, we expect
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures, with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Similar to Friday afternoon, a dissipating shower or two may
reach Dixie and Lafayette counties this afternoon, but the
probability of 0.01 inches of rain is only 20%.



[through 12z sunday]...unlimited cigs and unrestricted vis are
expected through this evening. Tonight, the best chance for
restrictions look to be just east of vld and west of dhn and ecp.


Prev discussion [612 am est]...

Short term [tonight through monday]...

While the upper level ridging remains in place over the Gulf of
Mexico, the upper level flow across the County Warning Area is nearly zonal to begin
the short term. At the surface, evidence of a weak surface ridge is
still in place. The better moisture and activity remain north and
west of the County Warning Area through the short term.

Temperatures over the next few days will remain in the mid to upper
70s, above normal, with a few places across The Big Bend area
expected to reach the lower 80s on Monday.

Long term [monday night through saturday]...

Fairly quiet to start the long term, but there are significant
differences between the models by mid week. The European model (ecmwf) pushes a
front into the County Warning Area on Wednesday which would result in high
precipitation chances for the day. The GFS, however, weakens the
front as it pushes through the southeast, keeping the County Warning Area dry mid
week. With uncertainty, have included slight chance to chance pops
for Wednesday.

The European model (ecmwf) clears the precipitation out for Thursday
however the GFS lifts a shortwave out of the plains on Thursday
and into the Tennessee/Ohio valleys on Friday, pushing precipitation
across the County Warning Area. The GFS solution seems to be more similar to what
we've seen over the past few days so have continued with chance
pops late in the week. Precipitation should clear out for the
weekend with ridging building in.


Winds are initially at cautionary levels this morning across the
offshore waters but these stronger winds will quickly subside to
below cautionary levels by mid morning. Winds will remain below
cautionary levels through mid-week.

Fire weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


With no significant rain anticipated through early next week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 78 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 75 55 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 76 53 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 75 51 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 77 53 78 52 78 / 10 0 0 10 10
Cross City 79 55 79 54 80 / 20 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 57 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...Fournier
short term...fieux
long term...fieux
fire weather...Harrigan

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