Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
334 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Near term [through tonight]...
clear skies, calm winds, and dry conditions will set-up a favorable
radiational cooling event tonight. Expect lows to once again fall to
around or just below the freezing mark tonight. Slightly more
widespread frost as compared to this morning should be expected.

Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
high pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance pop across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
after a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Pops have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely pops now inching into Coffee County Alabama dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County Florida. Most everyone is under a 50
pop Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
pops and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay


[through 18z thursday] VFR conditions under light winds and clear
skies will prevail through the taf.


winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


Fire weather...
red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although quantitative precipitation forecast values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 32 64 47 64 36 / 0 0 10 10 0
Panama City 43 62 52 61 42 / 0 0 10 0 0
Dothan 36 63 46 58 35 / 0 0 20 0 0
Albany 31 61 45 59 33 / 0 0 20 0 0
Valdosta 34 63 46 61 36 / 0 0 10 10 0
Cross City 32 66 45 67 37 / 0 0 0 10 0
Apalachicola 46 63 51 65 43 / 0 0 10 10 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... current risk until midnight EST tonight for coastal Gulf.




Near term...Harrigan
short term...wool
long term...wool
fire weather...Weston

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations