Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
356 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Upper level ridging currently dominates the southeast states with
surface ridging off the East Coast providing easterly flow to
the area. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s
to near 60 tonight with dry conditions.
Short term [friday through Saturday night]...
The main story over the next couple days will be deep ridging
which should leave temperatures well above normal with mostly
sunny skies. High temperatures were trended toward the upper end
of model guidance with fairly widespread upper 70s expected.
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
The mid-upper level ridge should quickly erode from Sunday into
Monday with more zonal flow aloft emerging next week. This may
push a front into the region by the latter half of the week, with
some small rain chances returning to the forecast. Prior to the
arrival of any front, though, temperatures should remain above
normal for late November.
[through 18z friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the day
with easterly winds occasionally gusting to around 15 knots.
Winds will diminish tonight with some occasional MVFR to IFR
ceilings possible across the area, especially around kvld and
kaby. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR Saturday morning.
A change was made to the Small Craft Advisory to set the
expiration time of the nearshore segments to 12z Friday, and the
offshore segments to 00z Saturday. 20 knot winds may persist
overnight in the nearshore zones, but winds should diminish in
those areas by late tonight and especially on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy easterly winds are expected over the next couple days in
general, with lighter winds overall thereafter.
Aside from high dispersion indices on Friday, there are no other
fire weather concerns.
With no significant rains anticipated for the next several days,
there are no flood concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 59 79 56 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 60 75 59 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 56 75 54 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 75 53 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 59 78 56 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 79 58 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 61 75 59 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM CST this evening for south
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for coastal waters
from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.