Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
835 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
the long wave trough axis has moved east of the forecast area
with some middle-level cloudiness impacting our northern zones.
Surface high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley and ridges
southward to the northeast Gulf Coast. We will see one more night
of chilly temperatures as overnight lows drop into the middle 30s over our
far northern and eastern zones. These temperatures are marginally
cold enough for frost. However, there will also be some cloud
cover over our northern zones and dew points are a bit too low. We
will mention patchy frost in the aforementioned areas, but feel
this will mainly occur on car windshields and not pose any real
threat to vegetation. Therefore, an advisory will not be issued.
[through 00z monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period, with a middle-layer cloud deck impacting dhn and
aby. Winds will remain light.
Previous discussion [405 PM edt]...
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
Surface high pressure will quickly transition from the western
Great Lakes this afternoon to off the Carolina coast by Sunday
evening. This will cause the low level flow to gradually veer
around to a southerly direction by late Sunday and into Monday.
Combined with the departing middle-upper level trough, this signals a
warming trend over the next couple days with temperatures
recovering to near normal levels by Sunday night and Monday.
A surface cold front will push southeast into the area on Monday
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Our area should
be in the left exit region of a 100kt upper level jet; thus
despite the weakening trend of the front...there should be enough
qg forcing for some scattered showers and storms. The 09z sref
mean and 12z GFS indicate around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30 knots
of 0-6km shear...a somewhat marginal instability and shear
combination that could yield a few strong storms. Convection
should be most vigorous and widespread in the afternoon and early
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
The weakening surface front may linger around the region for a
couple days before ultimately dissipating as a low-amplitude
middle-upper level ridge begins to build into the southeast. Although
models are somewhat inconsistent on details...enough ensemble
members are indicating light quantitative precipitation forecast to warrant some small chances of
rain through much of the period. The most likely 24-hour window
for dry weather would be Thursday night and Friday as the
aforementioned ridge builds. Temperatures should warm to above
normal levels by later in the week.
Quiescent marine weather conditions are expected through the
period outside of thunderstorm activity. Winds should be less than
15 knots with seas 2 feet or less.
A very dry air mass exists across the region today and will
persist through Sunday. Long durations of low relative humidity
are expected. Predicted fuel moisture levels are just high enough
in Leon and Wakulla counties to reach red flag criteria. This is
not the case in other counties. Moisture levels and rain chances
will increase early next work week.
Rain returns to the forecast on Monday however, totals are
expected to be less than an inch. With all rivers below flood
stage, there are no flooding concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 38 69 45 78 58 / 0 0 10 20 20
Panama City 44 66 57 74 63 / 0 0 10 20 20
Dothan 37 66 49 77 56 / 0 0 10 50 20
Albany 34 65 46 77 53 / 0 0 10 40 20
Valdosta 35 67 43 76 54 / 0 0 10 20 20
Cross City 37 68 41 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 44 65 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
Florida...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for coastal Wakulla-inland