Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
341 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
..warmest autumn on record at Tallahassee coming to an end...
Near term [through tonight]...
In the upper levels, a trough over the Great Plains will move into
the lower Mississippi Valley by morning. The cold front at the
surface is currently moving very slow and is draped over northern
Alabama and southern Mississippi. The major models have this front
picking up speed late tonight into the morning hours. Rain chances
will increase overnight as the cold front approaches from the west.
West of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers, pops range from
25 to 40 percent late in the night. Fog is very likely overnight and
in the morning hours at most locations. Lows tonight will be in the
Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...
The aforementioned upper level trough will move east off the New
England coast Thursday night. However, the broad base of this
departing trough will remain to our west. At the surface, a cold
front will move east across our forecast area on Wednesday,
bringing an end to our warmest autumn ever, with an upcoming
stretch of near- average temperatures. There has been a change in
the nwp guidance from 24 hours ago, as the consensus now forecasts
a more robust frontal system Wednesday (in terms of qpf). We have
raised our pop, qpf, and even thunderstorm chances accordingly,
given the improved thermodynamics and stronger, more focused lift.
However, we still do not anticipate severe storms.
Long term [friday through tuesday]...
Mostly fair weather and mild temperatures are expected, with lows
mostly in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the 60s. This will be
close to climatology. The global models forecast a significant
upper level trough to affect our region early next week, when our
pops will begin to increase.
[through 18z wednesday] IFR and LIFR conditions are likely
tonight at all terminals. Conditions will deteriorate earlier than
usual (around 06z) and will last through mid or late morning. Rain
will move into the region ahead of an approaching cold front,
beginning in the morning for dhn and aby.
Light S winds tonight will veer to the northwest from west to east on
Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. North winds will
increase to exercise caution levels Wednesday night, then slacken
to moderate levels Thursday and Friday. The pressure gradient may
increase enough for an advisory this weekend.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
Our quantitative precipitation forecast has increased quite a bit from 24 hours ago, especially in
the Florida Panhandle, southeast al, and southwest GA, where we now
expect an inch of rain across much of the area. All of our sites
were below action stage and falling. While the latest naefs-
driven mmefs does not have any of our sites going back to action
stage, subsequent runs may change as this ensemble begins to pull
toward the heavier quantitative precipitation forecast shown by several nwp models at 12 UTC.
Regardless, it's unlikely that this increase in quantitative precipitation forecast will result in
flooding...just more of a bump in some of the river stages.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 63 75 52 64 45 / 10 80 30 0 10
Panama City 65 72 51 63 46 / 40 80 10 0 0
Dothan 61 68 45 60 40 / 30 90 10 0 0
Albany 61 70 46 61 40 / 10 80 20 0 10
Valdosta 63 77 51 64 45 / 10 60 50 0 10
Cross City 62 80 57 69 50 / 10 30 40 10 10
Apalachicola 67 74 53 65 48 / 20 70 20 0 10