Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
909 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013
Near term [tonight]...
thunderstorms across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia are
dissipating. There may be a few more brief, smaller showers
scattered across the area tonight, but the stronger storms are
done for the evening now that nocturnal cooling has set in and the
showers and thunderstorms earlier have worked over the air mass.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.
&&
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
a upper level trough situated across most of the eastern Seaboard
will remain the main controller of our weather pattern beginning
of the short term period. The associated surface low pressure is
located just offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Stemming from the
surface low is a stationary frontal boundary draped across our
southern Georgia counties. This frontal boundary will give an
enhanced chance for thunderstorms in the late afternoon hours
keeping our probability of precipitation in the 40-50% range. Although cape values are
very marginal, the equivalent potential temperature difference
between the surface and the 700-500 mb layer would suggest, if
severe weather were to occur, it would be damaging wind gusts.
Severe hail does not appear to be an issue with 500 mb
temperatures being too warm. Expect highs in the lower 90s during
peak heating hours of the afternoon and lows bottoming out in the
lower 70s.
&&
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
a weak wave of low pressure diving southward cuts off, settling
over the western Florida Panhandle. This will lead to an
unsettled weather pattern through Tuesday with afternoon pops
enhanced slightly to around 50%. By the end of the long term
period the Bermuda high will return our area to our usual
summertime pattern, with the main concern being afternoon sea
breeze storms. High temps will be in the lower 90s and low temps
will be in the lower 70s.
&&
Aviation [through 00z friday]...
VFR conditions should be seen at all terminals overnight besides
brief MVFR conditions in the early morning at kvld and kaby. The
pattern for afternoon convection tomorrow looks highly variable
and chaotic, so only afternoon thunderstorms in the vicinity are included in the current
taf package.
&&
Marine...
as a frontal boundary to our north slowly inches south, a
localized tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for an
increase in winds this afternoon. Expect winds out the southwest
at 10-15 knots, mainly in our nearshore waters. This will allow
for a slight increase in seas around 2 to 3 feet. After the cold
front weakens, another ridge of high pressure will build to our
northeast keeping our County Warning Area in a light east/southeast flow and seas 1-2 feet.
&&
Fire weather...
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels thus
precluding red flag conditions for the foreseeable future.
&&
Hydrology...
no problems are anticipated in the near future.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 71 90 71 92 71 / 40 50 30 50 30
Panama City 74 91 75 89 74 / 30 50 30 40 20
Dothan 70 93 71 92 71 / 30 40 20 40 20
Albany 71 93 71 90 71 / 30 40 30 40 20
Valdosta 70 91 70 90 70 / 50 60 40 40 40
Cross City 71 92 71 91 71 / 30 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 74 90 73 88 75 / 30 40 30 40 30
&&
Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Near term...Moore
aviation...Gould/heller
fire weather...Harrigan
rest of discussion...Harrigan/Navarro
