Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
410 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
The 1 PM regional surface analysis showed the front which brought US
some slight relief from the late Summer heat and humidity was
beginning to slowly translate westward as a weak warm front. It
extended southward from Savannah, GA, through Steinhatchee, FL, and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Much of our forecast area was still
in the abnormally dry air west of the front, with precip water
values 40-60% below climo.
As this front translates slowly westward and interacts with the
various sea breeze fronts, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop and affect areas around Cross City, Valdosta, and Madison
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise the weather will be fair,
though not as cool as the past two nights, with lows in the upper
60s (west) to lower 70s elsewhere.
Short term [friday through Saturday night]...
In the upper levels, there will be weak troughing to
the west and weak ridging to the east. At the sfc, a stationary
boundary will Divide the region with the western portion in the dry
sector and the eastern portion in the moist sector. As low level
moisture begins to creep back into the region, rain chances will
increase. Pops around 40 to 50 percent are expected for the eastern
Big Bend and easternmost Georgia counties. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms will be more isolated. Highs on Friday will be in the
low 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
On Saturday, low level moisture will continue to increase, resulting
in scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the region in the
afternoon hours. Pops will be around 50 to 60 percent for all
locations. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 with heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s.
Long term [sunday through thursday]...
Upper level features are forecast to be weak in the extended
period. At the sfc, features will be weak until late Monday when
Erika may be affecting central Florida. Therefore, there is a lot
of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday. Sunday and Monday,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon/evening hours as low level moisture increases.
The official NHC forecast for Erika has the entire Florida
Peninsula, the extreme eastern Gulf and the open waters of the
Atlantic east of Florida in the error Cone. There is still a great
deal of uncertainty with Erika's track. If Erika tracks farther east
and remains over open Atlantic waters, it will not impact the
region. If Erika tracks farther west into the Gulf it could become
more of a threat to the Florida Panhandle. If Erika tracks through
the center of The Cone, it may become a weak hurricane moving along
the Atlantic coast of Florida. Expect highs in the low 90s with heat
indices around 100 degrees at times.
[through 18z friday]
Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will develop across south central Georgia and North
Florida. However, the probability of a storm affecting the terminals is
too low to mention in this taf package. Generally VFR conditions
are expected through tonight, but some of the numerical guidance
indicates the potential for some low cigs around kvld and kaby. We
are forecasting low-end MVFR cigs around dawn, but cigs could be
IFR if the GFS verifies and there is some decent isentropic lift
along the 305k surface. Scattered thunderstorms and rain will develop Friday
afternoon, but mainly after 18z.
Light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend.
Aside from possible high dispersion Friday afternoon, there are no
fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.
Starting tomorrow we'll be transitioning to a wetter pattern,
with rain expected through at least the weekend. On average,
rainfall amounts through the weekend will have little to no
impacts on area rivers. Depending on the eventual track of Erika,
rainfall amounts could drastically increase into next week.
However, Erika's current track will have only a minimal impact
W.R.T. To rainfall locally.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 72 91 74 89 74 / 10 30 20 60 30
Panama City 73 88 76 86 75 / 0 30 30 60 20
Dothan 69 90 72 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 30
Albany 71 90 73 89 73 / 10 30 20 60 30
Valdosta 72 91 73 90 73 / 20 50 20 60 30
Cross City 73 90 74 89 74 / 20 50 20 50 30
Apalachicola 73 88 76 86 75 / 10 30 30 60 20