Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
351 PM EST sun Dec 28 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
At 18z the front was located across Alabama. As the front moves
east, clouds and pops will increase across the area. Pops will range
from 60 to 20% west to east. Models are in good agreement with sea
fog forming overnight and spreading inland. Have left fog out of the
forecast for Dothan and Panama City as the front should be moving
through there. Temperatures will be in the low 60s.
Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...
The cold front will move across on Monday with likely pops for
most of our County Warning Area. We will see lingering pops Monday night mainly
east of the river. A drier airmass will filter in on northerly
flow in the low levels. Min and Max temps will be noticeably
cooler but not cold as the mid to upper level flow will be nearly
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...
The mid to upper level pattern will remain zonal through New
Year's Day before we see the flow back to the southwest ahead of
the next low pressure system that will translate across the desert
SW Thursday into the Texas Panhandle by Friday night. This system
will then lift rapidly northeastward through the weekend. The
the first opportunity for rain will be Thursday night and Friday as
the warm lifts across the local region. Showers and possibly
thunderstorms will ahead of the cold front will arrive on
Saturday. The GFS shows the front getting hung up with deep
southeast flow remaining in place at least through Sunday. The 12z
Euro is more progressive with the cold front with it pushing
through on Sunday. Temps will be near to above seasonal levels.
Areas of MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon at aby/dhn and
then gradually lower after sunset. While VFR conditions prevail
elsewhere, this is expected to be short-lived as the models are in
good agreement developing an area of stratus in northern Apalachee
Bay around 00z. This fog/stratus deck will then spread quickly
inland bringing LIFR conditions to tlh/vld/aby and possibly to ecp.
Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites through the night and into
the mid morning hours on Monday before only gradual improvement in
Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected to prevail through
the Thursday as weak pressure systems influence the weather
pattern. Winds will be onshore until Monday when a weak cold front
pushes through the waters bringing offshore flow. Offshore flow
will continue until late in the week when they swing around to
become onshore again ahead of the next approaching cold front.
Advisory conditions are possible Friday.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
The Ochlockonee River above Lake Talquin continues to be in
recession this morning following the crest at Havana on Saturday.
Thomasville has dropped below flood stage this afternoon. However,
Concord will remain at flood stage for the next three days, but will
drop below the critical 38.5 foot level around 2 PM Monday, likely
allowing the reopening of CR-12. The talquin lake level will
continue to rise throughout the day. Bloxham should stay just
below flood stage.
Over on the Withlacoochee system, the Little River at Havana dropped
below flood stage this morning. Expect areas along the Little River
above the confluence with the Withlacoochee River to see improving
conditions as waters slowly recede from smaller creeks along the
lower portions of the Little River in Lowndes County. The crest wave
within the whole system is just about to the US-84 bridge. This
point is likely to crest around 28.4 feet this evening. Further
downstream to Pinetta, rises will continue with the potential for
minor flood stage being met after the first of the year.
Releases from Woodruff on the Apalachicola River have stabilized at
32000cfs, and are now at a level that Blountstown should stay below
flood stage absent any additional adjustments to the release
In the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville crested yesterday and is now
below flood stage. Further down river, Bruce will continue to rise
and go above flood stage later this evening. A crest around 13.5
feet should occur Monday evening.
Future rainfall through the next 48 hours is anticipated to be in
the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range with heaviest values across the
northwestern portions of the region. This storm system Sunday night
and into Monday should have only a limited impact on area river
levels only briefly slowing the rate of decrease at the forecast
points. A short period of quiet weather is expected throughout the
remainder of the week before a stronger storm system approaches the
area next Saturday. With little opportunity to dry out from the
recent heavy rains, the flood potential will remain elevated across
the region with river flows now well above normal.
For the most up to date information, please visit:
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 62 72 53 70 46 / 40 70 30 10 10
Panama City 63 71 53 65 48 / 50 70 10 10 10
Dothan 60 68 47 64 42 / 60 50 10 10 10
Albany 61 69 49 67 43 / 50 70 40 10 10
Valdosta 61 74 56 69 47 / 30 70 40 10 10
Cross City 62 76 60 75 50 / 20 40 30 20 10
Apalachicola 63 71 56 66 50 / 40 70 20 10 10