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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1044 PM EST sun Jan 25 2015

Near term [through tonight]...

Just made a few tweaks in pops (mostly averaging out in the same
20-40 percent range) and added isolated thunderstorms to account
for the very vigorous upper level shortwave which is racing
eastward juts to our north tonight. Any rain which does fall will
be quite minimal, and the major impacts will be the very strong
and gusty northwest winds which will keep lows temps out of the 30s over
the interior (when combined with the cloud cover), and also create
for a near gale event over the coastal waters, which will have to
be monitored overnight.



[through 00z tuesday] VFR conditions will be the rule through the
period, but aviators must be on the lookout for very gusty winds
and possible low level wind shear.


Prev discussion [424 PM est]...

Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...

By Monday morning, a cold front will be just downstream of the County Warning Area.
This means cool, dry northerly winds at the sfc and wrap around
moisture lingering in the mid/upper levels. Skies will clear out by
Monday afternoon for the southern half of the County Warning Area. Clouds will
linger until the evening hours for the Alabama and Georgia counties. Winds
will be gusty in the afternoon hours (up to 25 mph). Highs will be
in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. Northerly winds will continue for
the rest of this forecast period due to high pressure over the
Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 30s.

Long term [wednesday through sunday]...

Wednesday and Thursday will be high pressure over the southeast.
Thursday night into Friday morning a cold front will move
through bringing a slight chance of rain. Friday afternoon/evening
high pressure will build in from the northwest. By Sunday, a
developing Gulf low will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s as pressure systems
come and go. Lows will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s as
cloud cover varies.


A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight and tomorrow.
Southwesterly winds will shift to northwesterly by Monday morning.
Sustained winds will likely reach 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
possible briefly in the outer waters. By Tuesday morning, winds will
be moderate and northerly winds, but may exceed 20 knots again
Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday morning winds will
become light.

Fire weather...

Even though afternoon relative humidities will
remain fairly low throughout much of the upcoming week, conditions
will not yet become favorable enough for any red flag concerns.


While many area rivers have risen due to friday's rain, only the
Aucilla river at Lamont is forecast to reach flood stage in the next
few days. It will reach minor flood stage this evening and crest at
54.9 feet on Tuesday. Within the next week, more minor flooding will
be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee
rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 43 57 37 64 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 48 57 42 63 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 41 54 36 61 36 / 10 10 0 0 0
Albany 41 55 35 61 35 / 10 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 43 57 37 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 44 59 37 64 40 / 40 20 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 57 41 63 43 / 20 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...high surf advisory until 7 am EST /6 am CST/ Tuesday for coastal
Bay-coastal Gulf.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach Florida out
20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Tuesday for coastal waters
from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Florida out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



Near term...Gould
short term...McDermott
long term...McDermott
fire weather...Gould

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