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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Near term [through tonight]...
breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in across the southern Appalachians. Light winds
and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the
freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder
locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except
near 40 along the coast.



Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
after a short period of northerly winds behind today's cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the western Continental U.S. Near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle eastern Continental U.S. Trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late satruday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over US today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature
return from the central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.

Long term [monday through friday]...
cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

&&

Aviation...
[through 18z saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around
sunset.

&&

Marine...
winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of small craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

&&

Fire weather...
red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

&&

Hydrology...
river flooding from last week's heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 35 61 43 66 58 / 0 0 0 30 50
Panama City 40 59 50 66 59 / 0 0 10 50 50
Dothan 34 57 42 63 53 / 0 0 10 60 60
Albany 31 57 39 65 55 / 0 0 0 40 60
Valdosta 34 60 42 68 57 / 0 0 0 20 60
Cross City 34 64 44 71 59 / 0 0 0 10 50
Apalachicola 39 58 51 66 61 / 0 0 0 30 50

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.



&&

$$

Near term...Barry
short term...Camp
Long term...Camp
aviation...Barry
marine...Camp
fire weather...Barry
hydrology...Godsey

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