Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
405 PM EDT Friday Sep 4 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Very broad and weak troughing down the eastern Seaboard into the
southeast is embedded within an amplified ridge over the eastern
half of the country. At the surface a similar weak trough, found
mostly by a wind analysis, stretches through south-central Alabama/GA, up
into the mid-Atlantic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have
developed in this weakly convergent region across south Georgia and
portions of North Florida. A few storms have begun to develop along
the seabreeze fronts as well. Severe weather is still not expected
with very poor mid-level lapse rates in place across the region. All
showers and thunderstorms should come to an end before midnight
tonight, with lows falling into the middle 70s region-wide.
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
Over the weekend, a mid-upper level low is expected to move
eastward and stall over our region. With this increase in
instability, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
likely to develop across the County Warning Area with a greater chance closer to the
coast on Saturday. On Sunday, pops decrease but the environment
will still support scattered convection. With weak low-mid level flow
and higher precipitable water values, storms may be slow-movers
and can cause locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be at or
below climo with highs in the low 90s to upper 80s and lows in the
Long term [monday through friday]...
An upper level trough will develop over the southeast early next
week as the lower level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward,
allowing the deep layer steering flow over the area to become
southerly. This deep layer flow from the south will prevail through
the period, keeping precipitable water values around 20-40% above
normal for early September. The weak +pv anomaly causing this trough
will be the main force for convection for the first half of the
week, with a stronger +pv anomaly developing midweek to our
northwest and developing an associated surface cold front that will
slowly push eastward heading into the weekend. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be around 40-50%. Temperatures will peak in
the upper 80s in the afternoons, dipping into the low 70s
[through 18z saturday] VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the duration of the taf. Storms are most likely at ecp and
vld, though thunderstorms in the vicinity has been included at the other terminals due to
the widely scattered nature of storms.
With a weak surface pressure gradient in place, winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria through the period. There will be
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms which may cause
temporarily higher winds and seas.
There are no fire weather concerns for at least the next several
Rainfall totals are expected to be less than 1 inch through the
weekend with higher amounts possible locally. No flooding concerns
along area rivers.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 74 92 74 90 72 / 30 60 30 40 20
Panama City 77 88 75 86 74 / 10 50 40 50 30
Dothan 73 93 71 88 70 / 20 50 30 50 20
Albany 74 92 71 89 71 / 30 50 30 40 20
Valdosta 73 92 71 88 71 / 40 50 30 40 20
Cross City 75 91 73 89 73 / 30 60 30 40 30
Apalachicola 77 88 74 87 74 / 10 50 40 40 30
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT tonight for coastal