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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
252 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015

Near term [through today]...
rain continues to spread into the western part of our area,
roughly on schedule with the consensus of high-resolution models.
As such, there are no substantial changes from the forecast edits
that were made this morning. The best rain chances should spread
east to the Apalachicola, to Tallahassee, to Tifton corridor in
the mid-to-late evening hours before exiting the eastern part of
our area later in the overnight or early Monday morning. There is
some marginal instability on the latest objective rap analysis,
but it is mainly focused to the west of our area as of 19z. This
should spread into the area overnight, so there will still be a
slight chance of a thunderstorm or two tonight. The warm air advection pattern in
advance of the surface cold front should hold temperatures
relatively steady in the low 60s overnight before beginning to
fall in the few hours before sunrise as the cold front arrives.

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
cold front will be situated across the eastern half of the
forecast area by sunrise Monday morning, with showers ongoing
along and ahead of the boundary. The rain will end during the
morning, with skies clearing from west to east during the day.
Temperatures will vary widely across the area to start the day,
with mid 40s in the northwest and mid 60s in the southeast.
Temperatures will generally fall or remain steady through most of
the day as strong cold air advection kicks in behind the front.
Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the
northwest to the mid 50s in the southeast.

Seasonably cool conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
with lows near freezing and highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures will moderate Tuesday night ahead of the next system.
At this time, it appears the rain will hold off until daylight on
Wednesday.

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
an upper low ejecting from the Desert Southwest will induce
cyclogenesis over the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. While
the upper low will deamplify as it is absorbed by a developing
large scale trough, the surface low will continue to move east
along the northern Gulf Coast through the day on Wednesday into
Thursday. Lift ahead of the upper trough as well as isentropic
lift in the lower levels will produce a broad area of rain across
the area from early Wednesday to early Thursday.

A cooler and drier airmass will move into the region late on
Thursday as the storm system exits. This will keep the weather
dry and slightly cooler than normal from Friday through the
weekend.

&&

Aviation...
[through 18z monday] we should see MVFR ceilings gradually develop
and spread east through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, affecting all terminals as rain begins to move into the
area. S-southeast winds may be gusty at times prior to 00z. As some of
the steadier rain comes to an end overnight from west to east,
some IFR ceilings may develop before a cold front arrives to scour
them out around sunrise. Northwest winds behind the front tomorrow
may be gusty to between 20-30 knots as ceilings quickly improve to
VFR.

&&

Marine...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Monday ahead
of (and behind) the approaching cold front. Winds will shift from
southwest to northwest as the front passes. Following a brief lull
early on Tuesday, easterly winds will return to exercise caution
levels and continue into Thursday. Strong offshore flow will be
possible again by Friday in the wake of another front.

&&

Fire weather...
a wetting rain is expected today into tonight for the entire
region. Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

Hydrology...
the first system for this afternoon through Monday morning is
expected to produce mainly less than 1" of rain across the area,
although a couple of isolated amounts heavier than 1" are possible
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is
expected to produce a bit more rainfall with a general 1-2"
possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 58 64 32 58 40 / 80 50 0 0 10
Panama City 54 62 34 55 44 / 80 30 0 0 10
Dothan 48 50 30 55 39 / 80 20 0 0 10
Albany 52 58 29 55 36 / 80 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 58 63 32 58 41 / 80 60 0 0 10
Cross City 60 67 30 62 43 / 70 60 0 0 10
Apalachicola 59 65 36 56 46 / 70 40 0 0 10

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal Bay-coastal
Franklin-coastal Gulf-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for coastal waters
from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Florida out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



&&

$$

Near term...lamers
short term...Camp
Long term...Camp
aviation...lamers
marine...Camp
fire weather...McDermott
hydrology...dvd

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