Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
836 PM EDT Monday Jun 1 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are on a weakening
trend this evening as we lose daytime heating. The latest
ensemble of convection allowing models shows a chance of showers
and thunderstorms remaining during the overnight hours along the
coastal areas and just offshore with a weak upper level trough
stretching from the Tennessee Valley southward to the Gulf Coast and
southwest flow aloft. This will likely transition to an earlier
start than normal for convection during the morning hours on
Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight are mostly expected to range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
[through 00z wednesday] any remaining showers and thunderstorms
should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Low
ceilings are possible in the early morning hours at kdhn, ktlh,
and kvld. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to resume
tomorrow affecting kecp in the first half of the day and
spreading to ktlh, kdhn, kaby, and kvld later in the day. These
storms may cause gusty winds and temporary drops in ceiling and/or
Previous discussion [346 PM edt]...
Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
The upper +pv anomaly to our west will translate eastward, to a
position that's east of our forecast area Wednesday night. At the
same time a weak cold front will move into our forecast area from
the northwest, then stall. Q-g forcing and deep, moist south to
southwest flow will be favorable for the development of plenty of
deep moist convection across our region Tuesday. The latest ensemble
of convection allowing models (ecam) forecast an early start to the
convection, with likely probability of precipitation across our Florida zones before 2 PM EDT,
then shifting northward into south Georgia and Alabama. Probability of precipitation will begin to
decrease on Wednesday, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany, as
drier air aloft develops and q-g forcing shifts east of our area. As
is usually the case in the Summer, conditions do not appear
favorable for organized thunderstorms, but low layer and middle layer
lapse rates will be supportive of a few marginally severe storms.
With the early start to the storms expected Tuesday, high
temperatures will "only" reach the middle to upper 80s. Highs will be
near average Wednesday, around 90. Lows will be in the upper 60s.
Long term [thursday through monday]...
The aforementioned middle-upper level trough will be centered just east
of our forecast area through much of this forecast cycle. This is
the dry side of the trough, but there will be enough low-layer
moisture to support at least isolated to scattered storms, mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours. The probability of precipitation will range from 20 to 30
percent. Temperatures will be near average.
Generally light onshore winds and low seas are likely through
Thursday, as a high pressure system remains south and east of the
Wetting rains will be possible the next couple days with fairly high
coverage of showers and storms. Hazardous fire weather conditions
are not expected.
Widespread flooding is unlikely as the showers and thunderstorms
expected over the next several days will not be concentrated or
sustained enough for long periods of heavy rain.
However, isolated flooding is possible.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 87 68 90 69 / 20 50 40 40 20
Panama City 71 83 71 85 72 / 40 60 30 20 10
Dothan 67 87 68 89 67 / 10 50 30 20 10
Albany 68 87 68 89 68 / 10 50 40 30 20
Valdosta 69 87 67 89 67 / 20 60 40 40 20
Cross City 69 87 67 87 67 / 20 50 50 40 20
Apalachicola 72 84 71 86 72 / 40 60 40 30 10