Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
453 am EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Near term [through today]...
After numerous days of well above normal temperatures across the County Warning Area
during the month of March with high temperatures even approaching the 90
degree mark at Tallahassee on 3 separate occasions, today will be a
rude awakening for those who have become accustomed to the very warm
weather. Even with plenty of late March sunshine over the region,
high temperatures will climb into the upper 50s north to the lower to
middle 60s south at best this afternoon, which will be a good 10 to
15 degrees below average. Also, by later this afternoon a piece of
energy on the back side of the very sharp upper level trof, which is
currently swinging eastward through our area tonight, is expected to
bring a gradual increase in middle and upper level cloudiness to the
County Warning Area over time. However, this energy will be starved for any
significant moisture, so the chances of a light shower from 10 kft
ceilings will be very slim at best over southeast al, but there could be a
15-20 percent chance just to the northwest of our County Warning Area.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
High pressure will settle into North Florida and south Georgia for
the short term period. As a shortwave approaches Monday there will
be a slight chance of rain. Temperatures tonight through Sunday
night will be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Temperatures
will begin to rebound on Monday with highs in the upper 70s.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
A cold front will stall over the region on Tuesday resulting in
cool and cloudy conditions. Models show cyclogenesis in the
western Gulf in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. These
features will result in a slight chance of rain for most of the
long term period. Temperatures will return to seasonal levels with
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and lows near 60.
[through 06z sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with just a slight increase in middle and upper level clouds above
10 kft from northwest to southeast over the terminals by late this afternoon into
tonight. Northwest winds will be lighter today than they were on Friday,
but may still be a bit gusty at times this afternoon, before
diminishing again on Saturday night.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 8 am EDT
this morning before winds and seas decrease later today. Winds
will be 10 knots or less and seas will be 2 feet or less through
Despite the very cool air over the region today, the very dry
conditions will drop afternoon relative humidities down to red flag
levels for 4 to 5 hours across parts of the Florida Big Bend and
Panhandle. However, only Wakulla County in the Florida Big Bend is
forecast to reach an erc of 37, so a red flag warning has been
issued for this County only for today. On Sunday, relative humidity values are
expected to be below critical levels even longer for a larger
portion of North Florida, and with erc values still quite uncertain
at this time, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for all of the
Florida Big Bend and Jackson and Calhoun counties in the Florida
Panhandle. Over our Alabama and Georgia counties, red flag
conditions are not expected to be met at this time due to the
Rain returns to the forecast on Monday...however totals are
expected to be less than an inch. With all rivers below flood
stage there are no flooding concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 64 39 68 46 78 / 0 10 0 10 20
Panama City 63 45 65 56 75 / 0 10 0 10 10
Dothan 59 38 65 50 77 / 10 0 10 20 30
Albany 59 36 64 47 77 / 10 0 0 20 30
Valdosta 63 38 68 44 76 / 0 10 0 10 20
Cross City 65 38 69 42 76 / 0 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 65 45 65 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Calhoun-coastal Dixie-coastal Franklin-coastal
Jefferson-coastal Taylor-coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-inland
Dixie-inland Franklin-inland Jefferson-inland Taylor-inland
Red flag warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
evening for coastal Wakulla-inland Wakulla.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for Apalachee
Bay or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 nm-coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.