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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
941 am EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Near term [through today]...

Previous forecast is on track with only minor tweaks needed. With
plenty of deep, tropical moisture already in place across the
region (with widespread pwats between 2" and 2.3") sct to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and
move east-NE over the County Warning Area with the heaviest rainfall expected near
the coast over the Florida Panhandle and across much of the Florida Big
Bend. This development will be caused by a steepening upper level
trof to our northwest which will finally push the stationary sfc frontal
boundary off to our southeast as a cold front later tonight and
Wednesday, finally putting an end to our stagnant pattern of
unseasonably wet and humid conditions. Before that takes place,
however, average rainfall amounts today are expected to range from
0.25" to 0.50" over the northern 1/4 of the cwa, to between 0.50"
and 1" across the remainder of our al, GA, and northwest Florida Panhandle
zones, with fairly widespread 1" to 2" totals expected elsewhere.
In fact, some portions of the southeastern Big Bend as well as
coastal areas of Franklin and Gulf counties could see isolated
storm totals of 2" to 4" or even 3" to 5", which could cause some
minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

Prev discussion [240 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify with the trough
digging down the eastern Seaboard. This will bring much drier air
to the region as the deep layer moisture gets shunted southward. At
the surface, the cold front will have pushed well to the south of
our area by Thursday. Pops will be tapered lower end chance
northwest zones to good chance for the southeast Big Bend tonight.
Then will keep slight to chance pops mainly over the southeast Big
Bend for Wednesday with no mention of pops on Thursday. Despite
the passage of a cold front, Max temps will near to just above
seasonal levels each day. Min temps will drop into the mid to upper
60s most inland areas Wednesday night.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...

Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the
first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid
80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the
period, another front may move in from the northwest with a
slight increase in pops, but nothing significant is currently
expected.



Aviation...

[through 12z wednesday] scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop at all of the terminals from south to
north today, with heavy rainfall likely reducing vis and cigs to
MVFR and even IFR levels at ecp, tlh, and vld, with MVFR
reductions expected at dhn and aby. This rainfall is expected to
linger well into the evening hours at the southern and eastern
terminals, with all areas expected to be free from convection by
06z Wed. As the cold front pushes through.



Marine...

Slightly elevated seas today will subside into the 1 to 2 foot range
tonight. Winds and seas will remain low through the remainder of
the work week. Friday night into the weekend, a strong ridge of
high pressure will build northeast of the area creating a pattern
favorable for an increase in easterly winds and seas.



Fire weather...

After one more very wet day across the region today, much drier air
will push into the area from northwest to southeast on Wednesday and
Thursday. However, this air mass will still not be dry enough to
cause any fire weather concerns.



Hydrology...

Some locally heavy rain is possible today, especially near the coast
with a stalled front in the area that will begin later today. General
amounts of 1-3" are expected with isolated higher amounts
expected. While this may cause some rises on our area rivers and
streams, it is unlikely to bring any of them to flood stage,
especially with the highest rainfall amounts expected closer to
the coast. There is a possibility of some localized flash flooding if
the heavier amounts fall over an urban area such as Panama City,
but confidence is not quite high enough in this happening to put
up a watch at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 88 70 92 68 91 / 70 50 20 10 0
Panama City 87 74 91 73 91 / 70 40 10 10 0
Dothan 90 68 91 65 90 / 50 30 10 0 0
Albany 89 70 92 65 90 / 50 30 10 10 0
Valdosta 87 69 91 65 90 / 70 50 20 10 0
Cross City 85 70 89 68 91 / 80 60 40 10 0
Apalachicola 85 74 89 72 90 / 70 50 20 10 0

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...Gould/Weston
short term...Barry
long term...dvd
aviation...Gould
marine...Barry
fire weather...Gould
hydrology...dvd/Weston

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