Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1002 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
Near term [through today]...
With storms limited to the coastal waters this morning and little
change in guidance, not much change was made to the forecast.
Expect storms to be limited to the water this morning and to the
southern half of the area this afternoon. A few isolated strong
storms are possible. Highs today will warm to the upper 80s and
may reach 90 in some spots.
Previous discussion [346 am edt]...
Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
The synoptic surface cold front will push just south of the
forecast area this evening and stall...lingering somewhere in the
vicinity of our adjacent coastal waters zones through the short
term period. While this will generally suppress the higher surface
dewpoints and instability to the south of our area...it will also
keep showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast through the
period as well. In general the models show lighter quantitative precipitation forecast on Monday
and Monday night...with an increase and northward shift on Tuesday
as the stalled front may begin to slowly return north as a warm
front in response to an ejecting middle-upper level wave from the
Southern Plains. With at least some period of cloud cover...along
with rain chances...daytime highs should be near or just below
normal with overnight lows remaining well above normal.
Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...we may see yet another
severe weather event unfold across the area as a 120-140 knot
speed maximum at 250mb spreads east along the Gulf Coast and the middle-
upper level wave continues ejecting east-northeast across the south. Such
wind speed values at 250mb are above the 99th percentile for this
time of year. The main question for severe weather chances will be
how far inland the true warm sector will penetrate...which should
be related to the track of the developing surface low. The 00z
runs of the NAM, GFS, and European model (ecmwf) all track the surface low through
our land areas with the GFS furthest southeast and European model (ecmwf) furthest
northwest. These solutions would all place at least a part of our
forecast area in a risk of severe weather given another highly
sheared environment with moderate instability (cape around 1000
j/kg or so in the warm sector). Stay tuned as the details are
likely to change as the possible event gets closer.
In the wake of the Tuesday night to Wednesday system...deep
northwest flow sets up over our forecast area and the region
which should lead to a period of drier weather. Temperatures
should be near normal.
[through 12z monday] a few areas of fog along with some low
ceilings will lift and scatter out quickly after sunrise this
morning with VFR conditions expected to return by mid-morning.
There is a chance of afternoon convection at tlh...ecp...and
vld...but the probabilities do not appear high enough for any
tempo groups at this time.
Scec level winds should continue over the marine areas through middle
morning...perhaps into the afternoon in Apalachee Bay. A lull of
lighter winds and lower seas will then arrive and last into
Tuesday before another low pressure system approaches. Scec or
advisory conditions are possible behind the cold front late
Tuesday night into Thursday morning.
Moist conditions will persist through the next few days keeping
relative humidity values well above critical levels. Rain
chances remain in the forecast through Wednesday...with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall from a stronger storm system
Tuesday and Wednesday.
An active weather pattern has left many of our area rivers in
action stage, with a few that reached flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown are the only two sites remaining in flood stage and
have both peaked and will continue to fall over the next few days.
A round of heavy rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning may
cause some area rivers to rise to action or flood stage by the
middle of next week. Currently the most vulnerable sites would be
the Choctawhatchee at Bruce and Caryville and the Apalachicola
River at Blountstown again.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 90 68 85 65 76 / 30 10 20 40 40
Panama City 82 70 79 66 75 / 40 20 30 40 50
Dothan 87 63 82 60 74 / 10 10 10 20 40
Albany 86 62 80 58 73 / 10 10 10 10 30
Valdosta 88 65 82 62 75 / 30 10 20 20 40
Cross City 86 68 84 64 78 / 40 20 40 40 50
Apalachicola 83 71 79 69 77 / 40 20 30 50 50
Florida...high rip current risk through late tonight for coastal Bay-south