Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
300 am EST sun Jan 25 2015
Near term [through today]...
mostly sunny skies during the morning hours will give way to
partly cloudy skies during the afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. However, any shower activity is
expected to hold off until tonight. Afternoon high temperatures
will likely reach the lower to middle 60s across the area.
Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
a potent shortwave will dive into the southeastern states tonight
and push a cold front across the forecast area. While deep
moisture will be quite limited, the intensity of the shortwave
and associated 140kt jet streak will be enough to squeeze out a
few showers across the eastern portion of the area early on
Monday. Cooler temperatures will follow the front, with highs on
Monday ranging from the lower 50s in the northwest to around 60
in the southeastern Big Bend. The main push of cold air is
expected to remain well to the northeast, so Tuesday morning lows
will not be terribly cold (lower to mid 30s), and lower to mid
60s are expected by Tuesday afternoon.
Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
a mean trough is forecast to remain in place over the eastern
states through most of this week. The northwesterly flow aloft
will help to keep temperatures near normal to just a bit below
normal. Outside of a few isolated showers on Friday associated
with a weak front, the forecast is dry until late next weekend.
[through 12z monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Winds will be gusty this afternoon ahead of
an approaching cold front which will move through during the
another rough couple of days is in store for the coastal waters as
a strong front crosses the waters tonight. Westerly winds will
increase late this afternoon, approaching 30 knot over the
offshore legs overnight. Winds will become northwesterly on
Monday, but conditions will be slow to improve with Small Craft
Advisory conditions persisting into Monday night. Conditions will
not improve significantly until the middle of the week when high
pressure builds over the waters.
red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be high across the Panhandle this afternoon
and across most of the area on Monday.
after friday's rain, many area rivers are still on the rise. The
Aucilla at Lamont is forecast to reach minor flood stage today.
Within the next week, more minor flooding will be possible along
the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises
are forecast to be slower.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 65 42 58 36 63 / 0 20 10 0 0
Panama City 64 47 58 42 63 / 0 20 10 0 0
Dothan 62 41 55 35 61 / 0 10 0 0 0
Albany 63 41 56 34 61 / 0 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 63 44 58 36 62 / 0 20 10 0 0
Cross City 64 43 60 36 63 / 0 40 20 0 0
Apalachicola 65 49 58 41 63 / 0 30 10 0 0
Florida...rip current risk until 4 am EST /3 am CST/ early this morning
for coastal Bay-coastal Gulf-south Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST Tuesday
for Apalachee Bay-coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach Florida out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 am EST
Tuesday for coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.