Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1040 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
Near term [through today]...
Satellite and area metars reveal extensive cloud cover mainly
along and east of the river late Saturday morning. Despite the
clouds, a few locations across our easternmost zones, including
Valdosta, have already reached the forecast Max temp so made
upward adjustments. Western zones may see a bit more sun than
earlier expected as the western progress of the low level clouds
have slowed considerably. Made adjustments there for sky cover as
well as temps. Also, trimmed back slightly on pops for this
afternoon over our easternmost zones.
Prev discussion [618 am est]...
Short term [tonight through monday]...
a large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.
On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.
By Monday, the pattern across the eastern Continental U.S. Will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
the upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in south
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.
By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.
[through 12z sunday]...
VFR conditions will remain throughout the taf cycle. Some low
clouds (3k to 4k feet) are moving in and will remain mainly in the
eastern half of the region. Rain is possible in the vld area
mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be
light and northerly.
moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
dry air will be in place for the next several days. Relative humidity values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.
several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.
The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter f
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.
Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.
The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 55 33 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 57 38 58 46 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 56 33 58 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 54 31 58 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 51 35 58 36 61 / 30 20 0 0 10
Cross City 56 36 59 38 64 / 30 20 0 0 10
Apalachicola 57 37 59 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 10