Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1037 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Near term [through today]...
broken line of showers and thunderstorms stretches across central
Georgia into central and south central Alabama this morning,
currently just north of the Tallahassee forecast area. This
activity is out ahead of a cold front which stretches from
northwest Georgia into west central Alabama. Overall, the activity
has been on the decline the morning as it moves into a more stable
and capped atmosphere near the Gulf Coast. Expect to see scattered
storms redevelop this afternoon as a shortwave approaches and
pushes the cold front into the area. However, with a relatively
dry (pwat less than 1.2 inches) and stable atmosphere in place
across the area, coverage and intensity should be limited. See no
reason to make significant changes to the ongoing forecast.
Prev discussion [645 am edt]...
Short term [tonight through thursday]...
Overnight, a thin band of clouds and isolated to scattered rain
showers should gradually diminish as it transitions across the
forecast area. Models suggest a small amount of instability in the
evening (and through the night over the coastal waters), so
thunderstorms were included in the forecast as well. Clearing
skies behind the front should arrive in the northwest third of the
forecast area early enough tonight to allow for cooler lows
reaching into the low 50s in some locations.
After that, high pressure will settle across the region, with
highs relatively close to seasonal normals. The lows on Wednesday
night should be below normal, aided by calm/light winds, high
pressure, a dry air mass, and clear skies. Lows were trended down
in the direction of cooler MOS guidance, which places the official
forecast in the lower 50s in most areas away from the immediate
coast. However, some models do indicate the possibility of upper
40s, which is not out of the question in some locales.
Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
In general, dry high pressure will prevail through the extended
period. A reinforcing (but dry) cold front will be possible this
weekend, which should drive temperatures below normal. Highs could
be in the 70s on Sunday and Monday in the wake of the cold front.
[through 12z wednesday]...
Fog development didn't pan out this morning. This morning's
updates include a tempo for thunderstorms and rain at dhn this morning and removal
of visibility restrictions. VFR will prevail at all sites away
from the approaching cold front. Near the front a brief period of
MVFR ceilings should be anticipated. Clouds will clear with the
passage of the front.
West winds around 10-15 knots will shift to the north behind a
cold front either late tonight or Wednesday morning. Wind speeds
should not increase substantially, though, until Wednesday night
when scec headlines may be required for 15-20 knot winds.
Northeast winds should then continue through the foreseeable
future, although they will subside into the 10-15 knot range.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. That being said, relative humidity values will
fall to near critical levels across parts of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle one Wednesday and Thursday, though other
necessary criteria will not be met.
Given the dry forecast overall, area river levels should remain
fairly steady or slowly fall with no flooding expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 86 61 84 51 83 / 30 20 0 0 0
Panama City 81 64 81 59 80 / 30 20 0 0 0
Dothan 83 53 81 51 80 / 50 10 0 0 0
Albany 85 54 81 51 80 / 40 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 61 82 52 81 / 30 20 0 0 0
Cross City 83 65 85 54 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 81 66 81 56 80 / 10 30 0 0 0