Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
345 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
Near term [through today]...
A stationary surface boundary is draped across the southeastern
states roughly from Pensacola, Florida to Charlotte, NC. It's being
kept in place by a relatively stationary upper level +pv anomaly
situated along the Smoky Mountains. This +pv anomaly will meander
southeastward today, keeping the stationary surface front more or
less in place, with only slight eastward progression. Scattered
showers have remained active overnight south and east of the
boundary as well as out over the Gulf waters, which are expected
to dissipate through the early morning hours. Today, like
yesterday, the 1000-700 mb flow will be from the west/SW at less than
10 kts, which is our local regime 4 sea-breeze pattern. This
pattern is favorable for higher coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms in North Florida, with lower coverage north of I-10.
With the influence of the upper level +pv anomaly, we will likely
once again see some increased storm coverage in south central
Georgia today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms today will be
in the 40-60% range with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s.
Short term [tonight through friday]...
Low-middle level flow will shift to a north-northeast direction for
this part of the forecast period. This tends to favor more
limited convective coverage that is concentrated primarily south
of Interstate 10, and a few isolated storms offshore overnight,
during our sea breeze convection season. That is generally the
template that we followed for the pop forecast. The middle-upper
level low will slowly lift east-northeast to coastal North Carolina through
the period, which will place our area in a region of neutral to
negative upward vertical velocity - meaning the added large scale support for
convection we saw a couple days ago will be absent. All of these
signals, in addition to below normal precipitable water, indicate
more isolated storms for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures
will likely reach into the lower 90s in many areas, with lows
around 70 degrees.
Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
The north-northeast flow at low levels should continue through the weekend
before beginning to pivot back around to a more southerly
direction early next week. This should lead to a continuation of
isolated storms through the weekend, with a gradual increase in
probability of precipitation possible early next week. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows in the lower 70s which will be slightly above normal.
[through 06z thursday] patchy low ceilings across the area with some
visibility restrictions possible at dhn during the early morning
hours today. After sunrise, expect another active Summer day with
afternoon thunderstorms across the area. Tlh and vld are the most
likely to be affected directly by thunderstorms with gusty winds
possible. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light and
variable thanks to high pressure in place.
Light and variable winds will keep seas 1 foot or less through the
period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected as
well, which may produce some locally higher winds and waves.
A warm, moist airmass typical of summertime will prevent US from
reaching critical fire conditions.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was the only river at local
action stage, and it's forecast to remain at a broad crest the
next few days before slowly falling late this week. Although
isolated heavy rain amounts are possible, we do not expect rain
over the next several days to be concentrated enough to cause
widespread flash flooding or river flooding.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 89 69 92 70 91 / 50 30 30 20 30
Panama City 85 73 85 73 86 / 30 20 30 20 30
Dothan 88 69 90 69 89 / 30 30 20 10 20
Albany 89 68 89 69 90 / 40 40 20 10 20
Valdosta 88 68 91 68 90 / 60 50 40 20 30
Cross City 89 67 91 69 91 / 30 30 30 20 30
Apalachicola 85 72 86 73 86 / 30 20 30 20 30