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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Near term [through today]...
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
along and ahead of the sea breeze over the Panhandle and western
Big Bend. The diurnally driven convection will dissipate shortly
after sunset yielding to party cloudy skies and patchy fog
overnight. Lows will once again be around 70 degrees.

Short term [tonight through friday]...
the large scale period commences aloft with dissipating cutoff
low to our west, however remnants become increasingly absorbed by
nrn stream trough thurs and deepening into full latitude trough
over southeast states thru the period. At surface, mid-south cold front
drops swd, albeit with limited moisture, to srn Alabama/Georgia by end of
period shunting ern ridge progressively southeastward into Atlc. All this
results in strengthening deep layer west-southwest flow with pwats hovering
around 1.9 inches. Expect 30-50% pop gradient, S-north on thurs and west-east
on Fri focused across east half of County Warning Area and in aftn. With increased
dynamics, steeper lapse rates and higher dew points, strong storms
with ample lightning and gusty winds are possible each day and we
cant discount isold pulse severe with damaging winds and locally
heavy rain especially with seabreeze/boundary clashes. High temps
will reach the low to mid 90s, a little higher on thurs with heat
indices from 90 to 103 highest Thursday and east.

Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
the region will be dominated by a typical Summer pattern through
Sunday. As a result, expect isolated afternoon/evening rain and
thunderstorms. Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases
afternoon/evening precip chances. A stationary boundary is expected
to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing increased
rain chances in The Big Bend region. In addition to the increased
rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. It will be slightly cooler
and less humid Tuesday and Wednesday...particularly in the Alabama
and Georgia counties.


[through 18z thursday] developing convection may briefly impact the
tlh and dhn terminals this afternoon. Then, a period of MVFR vsbys
can be expected in the pre-dawn hours at dhn, aby and vld.


winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 knots through this
weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 knots near the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating.
Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.


Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns.


river flooding will not be a concern with all area rivers below
flood stage and high rainfall amounts not expected.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 30 20 30 20
Panama City 76 88 77 88 77 / 10 30 20 30 20
Dothan 72 92 73 93 73 / 10 50 20 30 20
Albany 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 50 30 30 20
Valdosta 71 95 73 93 73 / 10 30 20 50 40
Cross City 72 92 72 92 73 / 10 30 20 40 20
Apalachicola 77 88 78 88 78 / 10 30 20 30 20


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...Barry
short term...block
long term...McDermott
fire weather...Barry

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