Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
312 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
High pressure will be the dominant feature with a dry airmass
remaining in place. Expect clear skies overnight with lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...
A rather weak low pressure area will exist aloft as A Reservoir
of +pv resides over much of the southeast and eastern Gomex. At
the surface, a ridge axis will be elongating from west to east off
the middle-Atlantic coast, placing the tri-state region under an
easterly flow regime. While this would tend to favor some sort of
late afternoon Atlantic seabreeze rain chances, our precipitable water values
will resemble values typical March and April and should preclude
any shower development. Highs will remain near average through the
period, with overnight lows creeping up into the lower 60s as
moisture gradually increases.
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...
Mutual strengthening is expected between a developing surface low
over the Bahamas, and the aforementioned area of +pv to start the
period. As the system moves north across the western Atlantic
through Thursday, it will gradually stack. As it does so, forward
progress will essentially come to a halt as weak flow aloft will
do very little as far as +pva GOES. Thus through the remainder of
the period, it looks as though we'll likely see some sort of
extratropical, or possibly subtropical system spinning in place
across the far western Atlantic. Rain is not expected until at
least Friday, as dry air remains in place across the region. By
Friday, moisture will have wrapped around the aforementioned low
pressure system and will begin to be advected in from the north.
Still, rain chances appear to remain low through Sunday.
[through 18z monday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be light and southeasterly. An onshore sea
breeze of around 10 knots is expected at kecp this afternoon.
Under an easterly flow regime, expect cautionary level nocturnal
surges to spread from east to west across the northeast Gulf each
night. The enhanced winds should gradually weaken below cautionary
levels to the west of Apalachicola each afternoon. This pattern
will likely continue through Wednesday.
The mild and dry airmass will continue into Tuesday. Strong
sunshine and deep mixing will cause dispersion values to be
unusually high each afternoon. Relative humidity values will be low each
afternoon...but not quite down to locally critical values. Fuel
moisture will continue to decrease after a wet April.
With no rainfall in the forecast for the next several days, river
levels will continue their gradual decline.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 60 83 63 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 10
Panama City 63 78 65 78 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 82 61 81 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 57 82 60 82 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 81 59 81 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 58 84 59 85 62 / 10 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 64 79 67 80 68 / 10 0 10 0 0