Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
348 PM EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Near term [through tonight]...
A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
Panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like tlh should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday night.
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.
[through 18z thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will diminish rapidly around sunset.
Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach scec
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.
The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola basin from Wewahitchka through Howard creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.
Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the middle Suwannee basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 27 67 49 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 39 65 56 65 50 / 0 0 0 10 0
Dothan 28 65 46 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 27 63 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 26 64 47 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 27 63 48 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 37 64 55 68 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Florida...freeze warning from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 am EST
/8 am CST/ Thursday for Calhoun-central Walton-coastal
Dixie-coastal Jefferson-coastal Taylor-coastal Wakulla-
Gadsden-Holmes-inland Bay-inland Dixie-inland Franklin-
inland Gulf-inland Jefferson-inland Taylor-inland Wakulla-
High rip current risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
for coastal Bay-coastal Gulf-south Walton.
Georgia...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am EST Thursday for
Alabama...freeze warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 am CST Thursday for
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for coastal
waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
nm-coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.