Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
216 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Near term [through today]...
in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, deep layer ridging
will begin to build toward the region today. As high pressure at
the surface moves eastward into the region, light northerly flow
is expected. Continued dry conditions and sunny skies will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s, with a few sites reaching
80 in North Florida.

Short term [tonight through monday]...
high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will build over the
region tonight through Monday. This will keep the weather dry, and
allow afternoon temperatures to warm back to above normal levels.
Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday and the
mid 80s on Monday. The very dry airmass will keep overnight lows
seasonable, with upper 40s to lower 50s tonight and lower to mid
50s Sunday night.

Long term [monday night through saturday]...
the upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period
with a trough deepening into the southeast by Thursday and
Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and then slow down. There are still timing differences
with the arrival of the front in our forecast area. However, any
noticeably cooler air will not arrive until after the period. In
the interim, temps will be above normal with highs gradually
falling from the mid 80s on Monday to around 80 on Friday. Lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland with 60s near
the coast.


[through 12z sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with light northerly winds during the daytime hours.


light to moderate offshore flow today and tonight will weaken on
Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds will become
easterly to southeasterly on Monday through the middle of the
week. No headline conditions are expected.


Fire weather...
relative humidity values this afternoon will drop into the mid
20s this afternoon. However, other necessary criteria for red flag
conditions will be met. On Sunday, a slow moistening trend will
begin which will keep relative humidity values above critical
levels through at least the middle of next week.


due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 80 48 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 79 58 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 79 54 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 79 52 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 79 50 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 80 45 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 54 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...Godsey
short term...Camp
Long term...wool
fire weather...Godsey

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations