Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
319 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
deep layer ridging will keep skies clear to partly cloudy with
temperatures within a degree or two of normal this afternoon
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
a ridge of high pressure aloft will keep the region warmer and
mostly dry through Friday. Expect temperatures to be above normal
with highs in the mid 80s. An upper trough (and cold front) will
approach from the west late Friday. The weakening of the ridge
along with the approach of the East Coast seabreeze may be enough
to initiate a few showers over the eastern third of the area
Friday afternoon and evening.
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
upper trough will cross the region on Saturday and drag a cold
front through the area. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible ahead of the front. Low-level moisture return appears to
be limited ahead of the front, so widespread rain is not expected
at this time. However, with deep layer shear values approaching
40 knots and modest cape (500-1000j/kg), a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out for Saturday afternoon.
A cooler airmass will filter in behind the front with high
temperatures retreating to the 70s for Sunday and Monday. The
next chance of rain appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday as
another front approaches.
[through 18z thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the period. The only possible exception would be
a brief period of MVFR visibility, which would be most likely at
vld around sunrise.
following a brief increase in winds over the offshore waters
overnight, light winds and low seas are expected through the
weekend. Conditions are expected to remain below headline
relative humidity will slowly begin increasing once again as the
weekend approaches. Red flag conditions are not expected.
the river level on the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will
continue to decrease over the next few days. The river should
fall below action stage on Friday morning.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little
or no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no
flooding concerns across the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 61 87 67 87 69 / 0 0 10 20 10
Panama City 65 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 59 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 59 85 64 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 61 86 67 86 68 / 0 0 10 20 10
Cross City 64 87 69 87 70 / 0 10 10 30 20
Apalachicola 65 82 69 82 69 / 0 0 10 20 10