Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
449 am EDT Friday Mar 27 2015
Near term [through today]...
A rapidly steepening shortwave over the lower MS valley this morning
will sweep southeast through the County Warning Area today. The large area of rain with a
few embedded showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the upper
shortwave and surface cold front will gradually come to an end from east
to west over the County Warning Area today. As this cold front passes through, gusty
northwest winds along with much cooler and drier air will move into the
region from the NW, with high temperatures only ranging from the
lower 60s over southeast Alabama to the lower to middle 70s across the far Southeast Florida
Big Bend. Even as some late March sunshine breaks through from west
to east this aftn, temperatures will not rise very much if at all, which
will set the stage for a couple of chilly nights in the short term
period this weekend.
Short term [tonight through sunday]...
As the upper level trough moves east a surface high pressure will
settle into the Tennessee Valley. Dry weather and mostly sunny
skies are expected through the weekend. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the 60s.
Lows will be in the upper 30s in the northern tier of the County Warning Area and
in the lower 40s elsewhere.
Long term [sunday night through friday]...
A shortwave will pass through on Monday before upper level flow becomes
zonal for much of the week. A front associated with the shortwave
will stall over the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Probability of precipitation will be around 20
percent for most of the week. Temperatures will rebound with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s.
[through 06z saturday] IFR to MVFR conditions will dominate the taf
sites through much of the overnight hours, as plenty of low ceilings are
lingering behind the showers and storms but ahead of the approaching
cold front. Once the cold front pushes through during the day, these
ceilings will gradually lift and scatter out, but northwest winds will become
quite gusty at most of the terminals. By Saturday evening, these
winds will slowly subside as skies become mostly clear.
Behind a cold front cautionary conditions will
continue until tonight with northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and
seas up to 5 to 6 feet. Winds and seas will decrease on Saturday
and will remain low through Tuesday.
Much cooler and drier air is on its way to the tri-state area as a
strong cold front pushes through the region today, bringing an end
to the chances for rain in most areas during the morning. Gusty
northwest winds behind the cold front will also help lift and erode
the low level cloudiness, with sunshine gradually working its way
from northwest to southeast over the region. For today, the dry air
will not be able to arrive fast enough for any red flag concerns,
but afternoon relative humidities will be very low over the weekend.
In fact, relative humidity values are likely to be low enough for long enough
durations for red flag conditions across parts of the Florida Big
Bend and Panhandle on Saturday and Sunday as well. However, since
20ft wind speeds are expected to be below 15 miles per hour and ercs are
unlikely to recover back to the required value of 37 on Saturday, a
Fire Weather Watch will not be issued at this time, but conditions
will be closely monitored once later erc observation and forecasts are
released. By Sunday afternoon, on the other hand, erc values could
recover to high enough levels for red flag conditions to be reached
over parts of The Big Bend. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch may be
needed later this weekend.
All area rivers remain below flood stage. With no significant
rainfall expected through the weekend there are no flooding
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 43 65 41 69 / 50 0 0 10 0
Panama City 67 47 61 46 65 / 30 0 0 10 0
Dothan 63 40 60 39 66 / 20 0 10 10 0
Albany 65 39 60 39 64 / 30 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 71 41 61 39 66 / 50 0 0 10 0
Cross City 74 45 66 42 70 / 70 0 10 10 0
Apalachicola 71 46 66 46 68 / 40 0 0 10 0