Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
301 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
a ridge of surface high pressure will persist across the area into
tonight, which will set up another dry night with calm winds.
Although some patchy fog cannot be ruled out, we expect a mid-level
cloud deck to arrive after around 03z which should limit overall fog
development. The combination of more cloud cover tonight, in
addition to some weak low-level warm air advection, should lead to low temperatures
around 10 degrees warmer than last night (mostly mid-40s).
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
zonal flow aloft will remain in place over the area into early next
week as large upper low now over the srn rockies closes off over
TX. Clouds will likely increase as this system begins to open-up and
eject ewd across the wrn Gulf of Mexico Monday into Tuesday. At
the surface weak high pressure will predominate and keep light
winds and fairly mild temperatures in place. Highs inland will
increase into the upper 70s Sunday and Monday, with overnight lows
around 50. High temperatures around 70 can be expected along the
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
as has been advertised for several days now, the models continue
to take a srn stream low /now over the srn High Plains/ ewd across
the nrn Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring an
increase in clouds and rainfall chances across the region, most likely
Tuesday night, including a few thunderstorms near the coast and
over the coastal waters. In addition, another cold front will push
through behind this system and bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week with highs Thu and Fri staying in the 60s.
[through 18z sunday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
A mid-level cloud deck should arrive after sunset. Light winds are
expected - generally less than 5 knots.
benign weather and light winds/seas will be the norm through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. By mid week rain
chances and southerly winds will increase ahead of the next
weather system, with strong offshore flow late in the week behind
another cold front. Cautionary or small craft advisories may be
warranted later this week with this next system.
while the airmass will be warmer and drier through the weekend,
humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels.
area rivers remain below flood stage. Next chance of rain Tuesday
night into Wednesday could bring rises to a few gauges and
possibly bring a few sites into action or minor flood stage by
late this week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 45 75 49 78 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 51 69 55 72 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 48 73 51 76 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 46 74 50 77 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 45 74 49 77 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 44 75 47 76 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 48 69 53 71 56 / 0 0 10 10 10