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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
339 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Near term [through tonight]...

The stationary boundary currently over the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi valleys, will begin to slowly drift eastward overnight.
Rain chances will be very low tonight (near 0 pops), since the front
will remain well upstream for now. Southerly flow will continue to
bring warm, moist air from the Gulf into the region. Cloud cover
will increase tonight, as this system moves closer. Lows will be in
the upper 50s for most locations. Patchy fog is expected in the
early morning hours, particularly near the Valdosta area.

Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...

The nwp models are in good agreement in taking the large upper level
low (currently centered over wy) slowly eastward to a position
over upstate New York by Wednesday night. An associated cold front will
traverse our forecast area on Wednesday, accompanied by a chance
of rain and a return to more seasonal temperatures. The model
consensus forecasts poor low-level lapse rates and unspectacular
boundary layer dewpoints ahead of this front. Coupled with the
expected lack of more focused forcing, thunderstorms appear

Long term [thursday through monday]...

The base of the aforementioned upper level trough will cut off
over Alabama by this weekend, while the surface cold front that passes
through our region on Wednesday stalls across the Florida Peninsula.
While this will maintain upper level q-g forcing across our
region, it appears that with the bulk of the deep layer moisture
to our south, pops will be 30% or less, and confined mainly to our
Florida zones through next weekend. A more significant upper trough,
coupled with increasing deep layer moisture, will bring increasing
pops to most of our region on Monday. Although the large scale
weather pattern is not conducive for Arctic intrusions, the decay
of the recent deep layer ridge over the southeast will correlate
with a cool-down to near- average temperatures, with lows
generally from the mid 40s to mid 50s, and highs in the 60s.



[through 18z tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail this taf cycle.The
only exception will be patchy fog developing in the early morning
hours. Fog is most likely at vld with MVFR conditions forecast.
Winds will be light and southeasterly.



With a weak high pressure ridge in place, light east-southeast winds and low
seas will continue through Tuesday. A cold front will translate
southeastward across the coastal waters on Wednesday, with winds
shifting to the north behind the front. However, the stronger winds will
not arrive until Wednesday night and Thursday.


Fire weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.



Most of the river stages were falling, and all were below flood
stage. We expect most of our region to get half an inch of rain or
less this week as the weak cold front moves through, which is
unlikely to significantly affect the river stages.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 59 79 62 76 56 / 0 10 10 50 50
Panama City 60 75 64 72 54 / 0 10 10 60 60
Dothan 58 76 60 68 49 / 0 10 20 50 50
Albany 57 77 61 71 49 / 0 10 20 50 50
Valdosta 60 79 62 77 56 / 0 0 10 40 40
Cross City 59 80 63 79 60 / 0 0 10 30 30
Apalachicola 62 74 65 74 58 / 0 10 10 50 50


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...McDermott
short term...Fournier
long term...Fournier
fire weather...Harrigan

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