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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
315 am EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Near term [through today]...

Absent of any synoptic scale forcing for ascent, expect a scattering
of showers to be forced in a convergent northeasterly flow regime.
Expect the showers to primarily be confined along and east of a line
from Albany to Tallahassee. In this area, the northeasterly
trajectories originate from the western Atlantic, bringing with them
the greatest low-level moisture. The combination of showers, and a
rather solid stratus deck should keep high temperatures in the
aforementioned region in the lower 80s. Further west, middle to
upper 80s should be expected.

Short term [tonight through monday]...

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger into the
evening hours tonight over the southeast 1/2 of the County Warning Area before clearing
skies, along with cooler and drier air move in from the northwest
overnight. Before sunrise, low temperatures are expected to drop
into the seasonably cool lower to middle 60s to the N, and middle to
upper 60s to the S. A very warm and dry day is in store for Sunday,
with highs around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. This
will be followed by a similarly cool and dry period on Sunday night,
with a slightly hotter and more humid day on Monday, which will also
feature 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest 2/3
of the interior during the afternoon as the next cold front
approaches from the northwest. Lows on Sunday night will be in the middle
60s across much of the interior with upper 60s near the coast, and
highs on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s.

Long term [monday night through friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
conus, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.



Expect a fairly solid stratus deck to develop overnight, primarily
affecting aby, tlh, and vld. The low clouds will be slow to lift and
scatter to VFR levels. All sites should be VFR by mid-afternoon with
a slight chance for a passing shower at tlh and aby, and a greater
chance a vld.



The strong easterly winds which developed over the coastal waters
on Friday have gradually weakened overnight, and the Small Craft
Advisory over the offshore legs will now expire at 4 am EDT this
morning. However, the cautionary conditions will continue over the
entire marine area through the morning hours, with winds and seas
diminishing by this afternoon. Thereafter, light winds and low
seas should return for the remainder of the weekend and Monday of
next week, before increasing once again later on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in to the
northeast of the region behind a cold front.


Fire weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over
the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.



Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region
over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our
area rivers and streams.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 84 67 90 65 92 / 40 20 0 0 10
Panama City 86 71 87 72 90 / 10 10 0 0 10
Dothan 84 65 90 65 90 / 20 10 0 0 30
Albany 83 64 90 65 91 / 40 10 0 0 30
Valdosta 82 65 90 64 92 / 60 20 10 0 10
Cross City 84 65 88 67 92 / 50 20 10 10 10
Apalachicola 84 72 85 72 87 / 20 20 0 0 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



Near term...Harrigan
short term...Gould
long term...lamers
fire weather...Harrigan

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