Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
839 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Hi-res models continue to show very little quantitative precipitation forecast across the forecast
area through tonight. Given hi-res guidance and light returns on
radar, light rain/sprinkles will be possible through the night.
Thus have continued with the forecast trend overnight but expanded
the sprinkles across the marine area for the first half of the
night. The hrrr is indicating light showers returning to the
extreme northern part of the County Warning Area late in the night and thus the
best chance for any measurable showers will be across the far
Based on observations, increased the winds across the marine
zones. This brought wind speeds just above 15kts across the
western zones and thus included included a cautionary statement in
the last coastal waters update. This was not enough of an increase
to change the wave heights. No other changes were made to the
Offshore flow will continue through much of the upcoming week.
The pressure gradient will tighten across the local waters late
Sunday through Monday as a weak surface low develops over the
central Florida Peninsula. Winds may reach advisory criteria,
especially across the western legs Sunday night and Monday.
Otherwise, winds and seas should at least be elevated to
cautionary levels during that time and 15 kts or less through
the remainder of the period.
Prev discussion [712 PM edt]...
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
The mid-upper level low is forecast to slowly translate east-
southeastward and emerge off the northeast Florida coast Sunday
night. This feature will then lift rapidly to the northeast
through Monday night with deep layer ridging building in from the
west. At the surface, an east to west oriented surface trough will
drop down into south Georgia on Sunday and push south of our County Warning Area
Sunday night. Much of our forecast area will be in a fairly dry
airmass aloft, with abundant moisture in the low levels. Thus,
mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will prevail with slight to
low end pops for most of our forecast area Sunday associated with the surface
trough. Monday will be dry. Temperatures will be mild, with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s and lows around 60.
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
Deep layer ridging returns to the region through the work week
followed by an approaching upper trough and cold front to begin
the next weekend. Dry conditions are expected at least through
Thursday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, lows in the 60s.
[through 00z monday]...
MVFR to low VFR cigs this evening will lower to low MVFR
overnight. Although a brief period of IFR cigs are possible around
sun rise, this should be short lived if it does occur. There are a
few areas of light returns on radar, indicating -ra/-dz are
possible at tlh and dhn over the next few hours, however no
impact to visibility is expected.
The chance of precipitation will remain low into early this week.
Despite the dry conditions in regards to rain, relative humidity values will remain
above 50 percent and thus no critical fire weather thresholds are
The Choctawhatchee River remains at action stage from Caryville
southward, but with Caryville cresting below flood stage yesterday
and no further significant rains expected, Bruce will stay below
flood stage as well with a crest occurring late in the day on
10/5. Elsewhere in the Florida Panhandle, the smaller tributary
creeks/rivers are continuing their downward trend.
River levels elsewhere across the region remain well below action
stages and with no significant rains expected for the next few days,
no further flood concerns are anticipated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 59 77 63 80 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
Panama City 60 75 65 79 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 57 72 62 76 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
Albany 58 72 63 75 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 59 76 62 78 63 / 10 20 20 10 10
Cross City 59 78 63 81 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
Apalachicola 61 75 64 79 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT tonight for coastal