Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
949 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
a few showers managed to develop late this afternoon along I-75 in
Georgia, but they have since dissipated. Deep layer moisture has
been on the increase for the last couple of days and with that,
expect more in the way of mid level cloud cover overnight. The
additional cloud cover and more humid conditions will lead to
warmer overnight lows, generally around 70 to the lower 70s across
[through 00z sunday]...
convection around vld will diminish by 02z. The aby and vld
terminals should see a period of MVFR vsby and possibly IFR cigs
after 09z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the taf
period at all terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon may briefly impact the terminals with the best chance at
dhn, aby and vld. Winds will be light outside of convection.
Prev discussion [411 PM edt]...
Short term [saturday through monday]...
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) forecast a 500 mb long wave trough from the Ohio
Valley to the northwest Gulf Coast. At the surface, both models
forecast a quasi-stationary, east-west trough (remnants of the cold
front that passed through our forecast area Monday night) across our
region. With increasing deep layer moisture and at least some
synoptic scale lift, there will be a good chance of rain across the
area. The highest pops (40-60%) will be in southeast Alabama & south
GA, where the most favorable combination of deep layer moisture
and synoptic forcing will be. For Saturday, the pop in Florida will
still be below climo values (around 30%) due to some lingering dry
air. However, pops in Florida will increase to 50-60% Sunday & Monday as
the deep layer moisture increases and becomes more evenly
distributed across the forecast area. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 90s in FL, and around 90 in Georgia & Alabama. Lows will be in the 70s.
Long term [monday night through friday]...
The positive tilted 500 mb trough to our northwest, and the
quasi-stationary surface trough across our forecast area will
weaken on Tuesday. A deep layer ridge, the western extent of the
semi-permanent Bermuda ridge, will build across the Florida Peninsula
and eastern Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the work week.
Daily pops will be near average on Tuesday (40-50%), then
a little below-average for the remainder of the week (30%) as
deep layer moisture decreases. High temperatures will be in the
lower 90s Tuesday, then mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. Lows
will be in the 70s.
Through Monday there will be a broad, weak area of low pressure
across the coastal waters, causing winds to be light and variable
and seas to be 1 ft or less. As the Bermuda ridge begins to build
across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico by mid week,
winds will become more well-defined out of the west-southwest
around 10 knots.
Summer-like conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
significant fire weather concerns over the next few days.
Area rivers are currently all below bank full stage, with a few in
low flow stage. Seven-day rainfall totals for the area will be about
normal for this time of year at around 1-1.5". These amounts should
not cause significant rises to our rivers. No flooding is expected
for the next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 69 94 73 93 72 / 10 30 20 50 30
Panama City 75 90 75 90 75 / 10 20 20 30 30
Dothan 69 91 72 90 72 / 10 40 20 50 30
Albany 72 91 73 90 73 / 20 50 30 50 30
Valdosta 70 96 72 93 71 / 20 40 20 50 30
Cross City 70 93 72 93 72 / 10 30 20 40 30
Apalachicola 73 88 76 89 75 / 10 20 20 30 30