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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1054 am EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Near term [through today]...

Current fcst is fairly well on track and quite similar to Tuesday
with the fog (which was once again dense in several locations)
and low clouds burning off from southeast to northwest across the County Warning Area. This will
once again allow inland temps to soar into the lower to middle 80s
across the interior before the warm and humid conditions produce
another sct-bkn cumulus field later this afternoon. The only significant
change to the fcst on this update was to remove the 20 percent
chance of showers to the west before 18 UTC this afternoon.

&&

Prev discussion [329 am est]...

Short term [tonight through friday]...

For tonight, we expect some combination of low stratus and fog
across the area as northward moisture flux continues in advance of
the approaching cold front. The fog could be dense in spots. The
front will arrive on Thursday, and should be accompanied by some
light-moderate showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Although
we have some low rain chances in the western part of our area
tonight, we expect most of the rain to arrive after 15z Thursday
with the best chances focused between then and 00z Friday. Likely
pops (~60%) are indicated, but an all-day washout is not expected.
Rain at any specific location may only last an hour or two. Models
still indicate falling temperatures behind the front, so the
trends may not be typical of what we usually see in the daytime
hours, primarily in the western half of the area where the front
will be more likely to arrive by midday. Cold air advection will continue on
Thursday night with a cool day in store on Friday with high
temperatures far below normal levels. This will be due to
lingering cloud cover, in addition to the caa, behind the surface
cold front. For March 6th the normal high at tlh is 72 and our
forecast high is 54.



Long term [friday night through wednesday]...

Through the extended period, models maintain west-southwesterly
flow aloft with occasional rain chances as a variety of waves
eject east. However, individual models differ on the timing with
dry periods indicated at times as well. As a compromise, we have
continued to forecast low rain chances through the period with
below normal high temperatures.



Aviation...

[through 06z thursday] fog and low ceilings will impact all terminals
overnight, with kecp, kdhn, and ktlh occasionally reaching
Airport minimums. Conditions will slowly improve during the
morning hours with MVFR/VFR conditions expected during the
afternoon. However, the low ceilings and vsby will likely return
shortly after sunset.



Marine...

The latest satellite imagery suggests that the low stratus and fog
has consolidated closer to the coast. Therefore, the marine dense
fog advisory has been reconfigured to be valid for the nearshore
legs until 16z. The advisory may need to be extended further and
reconfigured again depending on trends today. Either way, we do
expect periods of fog across the coastal waters until the front
arrives - or through Thursday morning. Over that same time period,
winds should be around 10 knots. Behind the front on Thursday
afternoon, winds will veer to the north and increase to advisory
levels across at least part of the waters.



Fire weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.



Hydrology...

The only River Point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee
River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it
starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to
cause significant rises on area rivers.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 82 62 75 46 55 / 10 10 60 30 30
Panama City 72 63 67 43 54 / 20 20 50 20 30
Dothan 79 64 64 37 51 / 20 40 60 20 20
Albany 82 63 71 40 50 / 10 20 60 20 30
Valdosta 85 62 80 47 51 / 10 10 60 30 30
Cross City 82 61 79 56 60 / 0 10 20 30 30
Apalachicola 70 63 69 48 56 / 20 10 50 30 30

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...dense fog advisory until 11 am EST this morning for Apalachee
Bay-coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin Florida out 20 nm.



&&

$$

Near term...Gould
short term...lamers
long term...lamers
aviation...Camp
marine...lamers
fire weather...Camp
hydrology...Weston

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