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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
921 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Near term [through tonight]

A shortwave trough passed through the area this afternoon and in
its wake, low-mid level ridging is moving in from the west. What
this means for our forecast area is clear skies, calm-light winds,
and another dry air mass. With this in mind, conditions will be
favorable once again for radiational cooling. Most locations
should be in the mid-upper 40s. Colder locations could reach the
low 40s while coastal regions will be near the mid-upper 50s.


[through 00z sunday]

All terminals are forecast to be VFR through the period as high
pressure and dry air will provide light winds and clear skies
through the taf period.


Prev discussion [302 PM edt]...

Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
the trough will be exiting east of the area at the start of the
period with a large 592-dm upper high parked over Texas. The ridge
will build eastward during this period while losing some magnitude.
By Monday morning, the ridge axis will be over Florida. Surface high
pressure will also gradually build eastward across the Gulf Coast
states. This pattern will yield a continued stretch of dry weather
and a warming trend. Daytime highs will be around 80 on Saturday and
in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday. We will see one more night with
lows in the mid to upper 40s Saturday night over the Florida Big Bend and
south central Georgia with milder 50s further north and west. Low to mid
50s can be expected across the entire forecast area Sunday night.

Long term [monday through friday]...
the upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period with
a trough deepening into the southeast by Thursday and Friday. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and then slow
down. There are still timing differences with the arrival of the
front in our forecast area. However, any noticeably cooler air will
not arrive until after the period. In the interim, temps will be
above normal with highs gradually falling from the mid 80s on Monday
to around 80 on Friday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper
50s inland with 60s near the coast.

high pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.

Fire weather...
despite relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range today and
Friday, winds will be too light to reach red flag criteria, although
Leon County will be close to them today with high erc values. By
Sunday, relative humidity values will begin to increase again and no
red flag conditions are expected through the period.

due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 45 81 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 54 80 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 47 79 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 45 80 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 45 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 46 80 46 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 53 78 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...Gould/Dobbs
short term...wool
long term...wool
fire weather...Moore

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