Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
923 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Near term [through tonight]...
high pressure has moved well to the east of the region this
evening and southerly flow is slowly returning moisture to the
region as surface dewpoints are climbing back into the lower 40s
across the Florida Panhandle, but still in the mid 30s further to
the east. The ktae sounding moistened slightly this evening,
indicative of mid and upper level cloudiness streaming in from the
west ahead of the next storm system. Even with slowly increasing
low level moisture and cloud cover aloft, temperatures will still
be able to drop into the lower 40s across southern Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend, which is a few degrees below normal for mid
Aviation...[through 00z sunday]...
unrestricted vis and cigs will continue through this evening.
Winds will remain at or near calm into tonight then remain light
thru Saturday. VFR high level cigs will gradually increase from
west to east late tonight thru Sat. After 21z Sat 3-4k ceilings
possible at kdhn/kecp.
Prev discussion [236 PM edt]...
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
the main focus is on the approaching low pressure system that will
start to affect the area on Saturday night and especially into
Sunday. While some differences in the details remain, models are
in good agreement that it will rain over most of the area on
Sunday. The detail differences are important with respect to the
threat of any severe storms with this system. The 12z NAM has a
rather robust low level jet with 850 mb winds of 50-60 knots
crossing the area during the day. The 00z European model (ecmwf) also has a rather
strong low level jet, averaging between 45 and 60 knots. However,
in both cases the best surface based instability lags the best
dynamics slightly. In addition, the 12z GFS does not have as
robust a low level jet. With these things in mind, the main
limiting factor for severe storms is likely to be the magnitude of
instability across the area as shear should be sufficient. At this
time, believe the overall threat is on the lower end but not zero
with severe weather probabilities somewhere between 5-15%. The
current Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook has 5% probabilities covering the
western portions of the area.
Long term [monday through friday]...
guidance is in reasonable agreement that the system will linger
into at least Monday morning with rather high pops, then
gradually pull away by afternoon with decreasing pops. After
Monday, the remainder of the period looks mostly dry with mainly
zonal flow locally. A weak front may approach by Thursday with
just a slight chance of light showers. Seasonal temperatures are
generally light to moderate winds and seas will continue through
Saturday before the next low pressure system begins to affect the
area more significantly. On Sunday, advisory level southerly winds
are expected with increasing seas and surf. The increasing onshore
flow will result in more dangerous surf conditions and a high risk
for rip currents. West to northwest winds may stay elevated
behind the front on Monday with improving conditions by midweek.
the dry airmass has remain entrenched across the region, contrary
to what most of the numerical guidance has been forecasting. It
now appears likely that red flag conditions will be met in
southeast Alabama this afternoon. Today aside, we are confident that
there will be enough of a moisture increase on Saturday so that
red flag conditions will be completely "off the table".
area rivers remain below flood stage. A period of moderate to
locally heavy rain is expected across the area Sunday and Sunday
night, with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches and locally higher
totals. The Big Bend area could see amounts of up to 3 inches
which would include the Suwannee River basin, but since rainfall
will be in the lower drainages this should not be problematic.
Overall expect some rises on area rivers with little to low
impact. The rest of the week looks dry allowing rivers to subside
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 42 75 54 73 60 / 0 10 20 80 70
Panama City 52 70 60 71 58 / 0 20 30 90 70
Dothan 46 72 57 72 56 / 0 20 50 90 60
Albany 43 73 54 71 57 / 0 10 30 80 70
Valdosta 44 75 52 74 58 / 0 10 10 70 80
Cross City 45 77 52 77 63 / 0 10 10 50 80
Apalachicola 52 70 59 70 60 / 0 10 20 80 70