Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
331 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
A very nice start to the Holiday weekend with today's maximum
temperatures reaching the average low 80s...middle 80s tops. Mainly middle
to high level cloudiness with a gradually veering north breeze to
east tomorrow morning. Morning minimum temperatures in the lower 60s
across southeast Alabama...southern Georgia and northern Florida...
average middle 60s along and south of Interstate 10.
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
Middle to upper level ridging will rapidly build generally east of the
plains through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to our
north will slide east and become anchored off the middle Atlantic
coast. Surface winds will veer to the east and then southeast. This
will bring a return of low level moisture to the region while the
middle levels remain relatively dry at least through Sunday. A few
showers will be possible along or near the coast on Saturday. Then
on Sunday, isolated to scattered afternoon convection should develop
along and west of a line from Dothan to Tallahassee with this
activity spreading eastward during the evening hours. Highs will be
in the upper 80s and around 90 with lows in the middle 60s to around
Long term [monday through friday]...
By middle week, deep layer ridging will move east and weaken as a
short wave lifts northeastward from the plains to the Ohio
Valley. This feature will dampen out as it moves across New
England by the end of the week with ridging building back in
locally. Probability of precipitation each afternoon will mostly be in the chance range
which is typical for late may. High temperatures will be around 90
to the lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
[through 18z saturday]...VFR. Scattered cirrus with a few-scattered lower
or middle deck through the period with a slowly veering light
breeze...easterly surface winds by tomorrow afternoon generally
under 10 kts.
A tightening pressure gradient between an eastern Atlantic high
and lower western Gulf pressure will strengthen weekend winds and
increase sea height, surf, and swell. Caution level winds
Saturday and Sunday as winds veer from east Saturday to more
southeast Sunday. Sea heights will increase to 1 to 3 feet
Saturday to 2 to 4 Sunday. Slightly higher surf by Sunday through
the weekend as the fetch turns more onshore. This fetch will also
push in a higher swell, average 5 to 6 second periods by Sunday.
Generally dry conditions are forecast to continue through the
weekend, with only isolated afternoon showers and storms
anticipated. While minimum humidity values should stay above
critical levels, strong transport winds will push afternoon
dispersion values will be well above 75 for most of the region.
With area rivers at normal flow levels and no widespread heavy
rain forecast over the next week, no flooding is expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 65 90 70 89 73 / 0 10 10 20 30
Panama City 68 87 73 85 75 / 0 10 20 30 30
Dothan 62 88 67 88 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
Albany 61 88 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 63 90 65 90 69 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 67 92 67 90 70 / 0 20 20 10 30
Apalachicola 69 86 75 85 76 / 0 20 20 20 30