Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
952 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015
Near term [through today]...
No significant changes this morning for the forecast.
Weak, low amplitude ridging continues aloft across the tri-state
region ahead of a large cutoff low over the northern and Central
Plains. At the surface, high pressure prevails locally as well, with
a quasi-stationary front draped through the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi valleys. This pattern will favor another dry day as far
as rainfall is concerned, with highs nearing 80 degrees for all
Prev discussion [626 am est]...
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
Dry conditions will continue for the start of the short term, but
rain chances will be on the increase by mid-week. A closed upper low
lifts into the north central Continental U.S. By Tuesday pushing a front
eastward with it. While the front is slow moving, it eventually
pushes into the southeast on Wednesday. The SW flow aloft helps to
bring better moisture back to the County Warning Area and rain chances will increase
for the end of the short term, just ahead of the front. While there
are still some differences in model solutions, overall consensus is
for the highest rain chances in the short term to be across the
western part of the County Warning Area Wednesday afternoon. Instability with the
system is minimal so have continued to include no mention of
thunderstorms, only rain.
High temperatures will remain above normal through the short term
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. With rain moving in for
Wednesday though, portions of the western County Warning Area may only reach the
upper 60s, closer to climo for this time of year.
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
a cold front will be pushing through the southeast at the
beginning of the long term and the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in better
agreement for this time period than has occurred the past few
nights. Although the front pushes through initially, a shortwave
moving across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday will continue SW
flow aloft across the County Warning Area and continue to bring some precipitation
to the area. While the European model (ecmwf) pushes the precipitation out by the
weekend, the GFS tries to linger some across the County Warning Area. Have only
included slight chance across parts of the County Warning Area for the weekend.
Will finally see high temperatures back in the 60s starting
Thursday. This will bring maximum temperatures slightly below
[through 12z tuesday]...
Vlifr cigs and visibilities are impacting dhn this morning and are
very near to ecp after having moved out of the terminal earlier.
Expect the potential for LIFR to remain at ecp through the next
couple of hours. Elsewhere, MVFR will be possible around sunrise
at tlh. VFR is expected through the afternoon today, with a
possibility for another round of restrictions at dhn, ecp, and vld
in the morning. For the time being, have left them out of the taf
since the highest probabilities are east or west of the
winds will remain light over the next few days, however wind
speeds will begin to increase Wednesday night as a cold front
moves across the southeast. After this, winds speeds will be at
the cautionary level for much of the second half of the week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
While dry conditions will prevail for the beginning of the week, a
front will bring increasing rain chances for mid-week. Less than
one inch of rain is expected and thus area rivers will be able to
handle these amounts.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 80 58 79 60 77 / 10 10 20 10 40
Panama City 73 58 75 61 73 / 10 10 10 10 50
Dothan 79 57 76 59 71 / 0 10 20 20 50
Albany 79 57 77 59 73 / 0 0 10 20 50
Valdosta 81 59 80 61 78 / 0 0 10 10 40
Cross City 81 58 80 62 78 / 0 10 10 10 30
Apalachicola 74 59 75 62 76 / 0 10 20 10 40