Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
839 PM EDT Friday may 29 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
isolated showers along the seabreeze quickly dissipated early this
evening. Otherwise, dry conditions and light easterly winds are
expected overnight. Guidance suggest some increased cloudiness
along the I-75 corridor by morning as an easterly surge makes its
way into the forecast area. Have bumped up cloud cover around 12z
to account for this. Otherwise, no changes anticipated this
[through 00z sunday] guidance suggest a low cloud deck will
approach kvld around 09z tonight with IFR ceilings possible through
around 13z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light winds will
prevail through the forecast period.
Previous discussion [241 PM edt]...
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
deep layer high pressure will weaken slightly on Saturday with
surface high pressure retreating further eastward across the
western Atlantic. Expect a stronger East Coast sea breeze on
Saturday, with the hi-res guidance suggesting late afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across our eastern areas. As a result,
have increased rain chances to 40 to 50 percent in the Suwannee
River valley. Drier conditions are expected further west with
temperatures possibly warming into the lower 90s.
On Sunday, as a middle level trough advances into the middle south,
along with an increase in moisture, expect a more typical
afternoon of scattered storms across the region, with the best
chances in western areas nearer to the middle level trough. With
more convection, expect high temperatures only in the upper 80s to
Long term [monday through friday]...
model guidance throughout much of the long term period suggests
that a middle level trough or upper low will remain across the
southern Continental U.S. Through at least Thursday. While there are some
notable differences between the GFS/Euro by Wednesday, the overall
pattern suggests good chances for afternoon and evening storms
through much of the week, with the best chances occurring on
Tuesday through Thursday. With the upper low near or over the
region by Wednesday, some of these storms may continue into the
overnight hours, especially over the offshore waters.
Beyond Thursday, as the trough/upper low moves east of the Florida
Peninsula, overall rain chances will drop slightly as some drier
air tries to move into the region from the NE.
Convective activity through the week will limit afternoon highs
generally to the upper 80s.
aside from moderate easterly flow across the marine area tonight
and into Saturday, generally light southerly flow is expected into
the middle of next week. Some enhancements can be expected each
afternoon with the daily sea breeze circulation.
humidity values are forecast to remain above 40 percent through
the weekend. Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
while some localized rises have occurred in the smaller creeks and
streams in the Florida Panhandle with heavy rainfall from the
middle of the week, no significantly heavy rainfall is expected
for the next couple of days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 68 93 68 90 71 / 10 10 10 40 20
Panama City 71 87 71 86 73 / 10 20 10 40 10
Dothan 67 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 50 30
Albany 67 91 69 91 70 / 10 10 10 40 30
Valdosta 66 92 68 92 69 / 10 30 20 30 20
Cross City 66 91 69 90 70 / 10 50 20 30 20
Apalachicola 71 88 70 87 73 / 20 10 10 40 10