Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1100 am EDT Wed may 22 2013
Near term [through tonight]...
the tri-state area is situated between areas of deeper moisture
to the east and west this morning. A weak upper low over northeast
Florida is forecast to furthern weaken today as it lifts
northeast. An approaching upper trough to the west is forecast to
weaken as well, as the parent low lifts into the Great Lakes.
Being between these systems will limit the amount of convection
that develops this afternoon. However, there could be scattered
storms, especially over the eastern zones with the East Coast
seabreeze, and possibly over the far western zones as the outflow
from dying nocturnal convection approaches the region. Have
adjusted pops slightly to account for this. Otherwise, no changes
planned for temperatures, with Max values expected to reach the
lower 90s once again.
&&
Short term [thursday through friday]...
the large scale longwave pattern commences highlighted by
troughing over wrn states, ridging ewd to plains, trough/low over
upper Midwest and ridge over wrn Atlc. The upper Midwest low will
move slowly ewd phasing with shortwave moving southeastward from Hudson Bay
reaching ern states overnight. Weakening low amplitude shortwave
will progress southward from base of this phased trough and brush local
region. At the surface, low over NE Michigan with cold front south-southwest thru
vcnty Memphis and into ern Texas. Weak high pressure dominates nrn
Gulf of mex region.
During Wednesday night into thurs, phased trough will combine with
approaching shortwave shifting weakening cold front rapidly southeastward
into our area. Sufficient low level moisture, and near calm winds
in warm sector Wed night favor patchy fog especially in areas that
received rain today. With steering flow near zero, Gulf and East
Coast seabreezes should be progressive and with outflow boundary
interactions, will maintain clouds, and sct showers and tstms
thurs aftn early eve. Somewhat tricky forecast as convection
coverage and intensity in part determined by where the
boundary/sea breeze clashes occur. Although isolated stronger
storms can not be ruled out, overall severe risk with this system
appears minimal. By late aftn, trough begins to lift newd so
convection focus should be across the ern counties closest to
departing upper dynamics and East Coast sea breeze.
By Thursday night into Fri, ern trough lifts to and then off ern
Seaboard with cold front pushed south of our area. In their wake,
building high pressure over Ohio/Tennessee valleys with noticeably drier
and slightly cooler northwest flow overspreading local region from NW-se.
Will go with 30-10% north-S pop gradient Wed eve, 20-30% west-east pops on
thurs, otherwise nil pop. Inland min temps tonight mid to upper
60s and mid 60s thurs night. Highs 88 to 91 thurs, 85 to 89 on
Fri.
&&
Long term [friday night through tuesday]...
rather pleasant/benign weather will settle over the region
through the Holiday weekend and into early next week. This will
occur as a large ridge of high pressure develops aloft, and drier
air settles in at the surface. Overall, afternoon high
temperatures will remain seasonal in the upper 80s and lower 90s
away from the coast with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
Aviation [through 12z thursday]...
other than brief period of early morning IFR cigs/vsby, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.
&&
Marine...
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected today
through Thursday, especially near-shore. Otherwise, expect offshore
flow and dry conditions will settle over the region by Friday and
continue into the weekend with low seas and relatively light winds.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns for the next several days, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining well above critical levels. Dispersion
values may exceed 75 Thursday afternoon.
&&
Hydrology...
no flooding issues are expected along or near area rivers. Minor
localized flooding could occur near any slow moving storm which
forms.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 90 66 89 66 90 / 20 20 30 10 10
Panama City 86 71 86 73 86 / 10 10 20 10 10
Dothan 92 68 91 66 87 / 30 30 20 10 0
Albany 92 68 90 65 87 / 30 30 20 10 10
Valdosta 89 66 91 65 89 / 40 30 30 20 10
Cross City 88 65 88 67 90 / 30 20 30 10 10
Apalachicola 84 69 85 72 85 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Near term...Camp
short term...Evans
long term...Evans
aviation...Camp
marine...Camp
fire weather...Barry
hydrology...block
