Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
352 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015
Near term [through tonight]...
Tricky forecast for later this evening. The entire region except
portions of the southeast Big Bend received rain with a large area
of stratiform rain, mainly east of the river, continuing as of this
writing. Another thunderstorm complex has developed over the western
portion of mob's County Warning Area and was moving east. The cirrus shield is
thinning over our southeast Alabama and Florida Panhandle zones with
temperatures recovering close to 80 degrees in some locations.
Current thinking is that most convection will dissipate early
this evening so will only show probability of precipitation in the chance range (30-40%)
from 00-06z. Lows will be around 70 to the lower 70s.
Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...
The closed upper low over the Ohio Valley at the beginning of the
period will open up as it lifts toward New England Monday night.
At that time, the persistent long wave trough that has been over
the area will dissipate but not before one last short wave
impacts the tri-state region. This feature is not as strong as its
predecessor but will help to enhance convection on Monday.
Thereafter, deep layer ridging will begin to build in from the
east bringing slightly warmer temperatures and a decrease in convection
on Tuesday. Probability of precipitation will be mostly in the good chance to likely range
(50-60%) Monday and mainly in the slight to Middle Range chance
(20-40%) on Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around
90 Monday and lower to middle 90s Tuesday.
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east becoming
centered over the southeast Continental U.S. Late in the week and the next
weekend. We can expect above seasonal temperatures with below climatology probability of precipitation.
[through 18z monday] thunderstorms crossing the area from west to
east today should clear out early in the evening, but light rain
with MVFR visibilities may linger behind them for a few hours after
the thunderstorm has passed. LIFR conditions expected with 30 miles per hour
gusts when storms are on top of tlh and vld. Dhn, aby, and ecp are
in the light rain behind the line and will clear shortly. VFR should
prevail after showers are done, although a brief round of reduced
visibilities may be possible around sunrise where rain was
High pressure surface and aloft will build over the local waters
through the upcoming week and into the weekend. Winds will be light
and variable at times but mostly from the southwest to southeast.
After several days of fairly widespread wetting rains this
weekend, we should return to a more typical summertime pattern
with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Relative
humidity will remain above 45 percent, precluding any possibility
of red flag conditions.
The multi-radar multi-sensor precipitation estimates over the last
24 hours shows widespread totals of 0.5-1.5" across our area, with
isolated areas receiving 2-4" in North Florida and southeast
Alabama, and the eastern Florida Big Bend receiving generally less
than 0.5". While this rainfall caused some localized flooding, our
rivers were low enough to handle this amount of rain and no
widespread flooding is occurring or forecast to occur. Another
round of rain in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle is
expected tonight, which may cause some more localized flooding,
but is not expected to cause river flooding.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 71 91 72 93 73 / 30 60 20 30 20
Panama City 76 87 76 88 77 / 30 50 20 20 20
Dothan 70 89 71 93 73 / 40 50 20 30 20
Albany 70 90 72 93 73 / 40 50 20 30 20
Valdosta 70 91 71 94 73 / 30 60 20 40 20
Cross City 72 92 72 92 74 / 30 50 20 50 20
Apalachicola 74 89 75 89 76 / 20 40 20 20 20
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EDT tonight for coastal