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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

Near term [through tonight]...

Deep layer high pressure will continue to build over the forecast
area overnight. The dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to
fall several degrees below normal tonight, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

Short term [thursday through Friday night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the Gomex in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. Pops will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our County Warning Area on Friday.

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the Continental U.S. By early next week. At the surface, the east to West
Ridge axis will extend across or just north of our County Warning Area with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal pops each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, Max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.


[through 18z thursday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals. Winds will be very



Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.


Fire weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach red flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical relative humidity in
Florida, no red flag products are needed at this time.



There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 68 95 70 95 74 / 0 0 10 40 40
Panama City 75 92 75 91 78 / 10 0 10 50 50
Dothan 67 95 68 95 74 / 0 0 0 30 30
Albany 65 96 66 96 73 / 0 0 0 20 20
Valdosta 64 95 67 95 73 / 0 0 0 30 30
Cross City 67 94 69 94 74 / 0 10 20 50 50
Apalachicola 73 91 74 90 79 / 10 10 20 50 50


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...Camp
short term...Barry
long term...Barry
fire weather...Camp

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