Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
913 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014
moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior norcal into mid-week. Very warm to hot
afternoon temperatures this week with a Delta breeze each day
bringing decent cooling at night for the valley.
cloud cover during the day and the Delta breeze tonight are
helping to trend temperatures cool this evening. Moisture moving
up from the south may bring a few sprinkles overnight but for the
most part the atmosphere is stabilizing this evening. We will
continue to see some cloud cover over the region the next couple
days but there may be a little less during the afternoons that
will likely lead to temperatures being a little bit warmer than
today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon this
week near the crest. No major changes in the weather pattern is
expected this week for the region.
Extended discussion (friday through monday)
Models show the western Continental U.S. Ridge maintaining it's position
over the intermountain rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to south-southwest flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta County. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.
The European model (ecmwf) and Gem models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central California coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern California. However, we didn't bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point. Jclapp
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Ts over mountains Tue afternoon.