Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
857 PM PDT Mon may 4 2015
dry weather will continue through early Wednesday before a cooler
and more unsettled pattern begins later Wednesday into the end of
the work week, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the mountains.
thunderstorms near the crest earlier died off early this evening.
We did get some isolated activity on the west side in Alpine
County but for the most part the activity stayed east of the
crest. For Tuesday as the trough moving into the Pacific northwest
deepens slightly it will push any activity further south along the
crest. Models in good agreement with that occurring with some
activity maybe making it as far north as Yosemite np.
Wednesday is the day when things look to get active over the
northern interior. The low will drop southward over the area. The
mountains will be the most active but I cant rule out a few
showers or thunderstorms forming over the valley. Snow levels look
to be high during the daytime up around 7000 feet or higher.
As the low shifts southward Wednesday night and Thursday morning
the activity will shift south a little with the main focus from
around Butte County south. Better chances for some precipitation
develop on Thursday in the motherlode with isolated valley chances
mainly over the San Joaquin Valley. Snow levels may drop down to
around 5000 feet during that time period but not much in the way
of snow is expected at that level. The better accumulations will be
above 7500 feet but a couple of inches down to around 6500 feet
Extended discussion (friday through monday)
The cold upper low is expected to exit to the south and east of
the area later in the day Friday. Wrap around moisture will bring
continued chances of showers through the day. Some afternooon
thunderstorms may develop with some solar heating through breaks
in the clouds, with the best instability mainly in the
foothills/mountains and the valley east of i5. Rainfall amounts
are expected to be generally light. Snow levels are expected to
rise to aroun 6500-7000 feet, with perhaps a few inches of
additional snowfall for higher elevations.
Precipitation is expected to wind down on Saturday, with just some
ingering showers in the mountains. A weak wave brushing through
to the north on Sunday will bring just a slight chance of some
showers to the northern mountains. Overall, the weekend will be
drying with temperatures warming to above normal levels, reaching
the lower 80s in the valley. Ek
General VFR conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday. Southwest
winds 12-22 kts with gusts to 30 kts around the Delta this
evening, decreasing late. There is a chance for some stratus with
cigs 008-012 to move into the Sacramento area between 11z and 16z.