Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
850 PM PDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
hot and dry weather gradually gives way to a slow cooling trend
into next week. Daytime highs near normal much of next week.
Scattered mountain thunderstorms through Monday as monsoon
moisture is pulled northward...elswhere continued dry.
showers and thunderstorms that developed this afternoon in both
the sierras and coastal range are slowly decaying this evening.
Temperatures in the northern end of the Sacramento Valley are
running idential to last night while dew points are up roughly 10
degrees. Thanks to the Delta breeze, locations southward are
noticibly cooler with the Sacramento area experiencing the largest
24 hour temperature change of 10 to 12 degrees. The forecast looks
to be on track this evening and no changes has been made.
upper level ridging brought another hot day, though a Delta breeze
brought some relief to the Delta, the southern Sacramento Valley
and the northern San Joaquin, with current observations 3 to 7
degrees lower than yesterday. Expect to see even more cooling in
those areas as the Delta breezes increases overnight. Temperatures
will be close to normal for the weekend into Monday.
The northern Sacramento Valley and the foothills and the
mountains are peaking in heat today. Redding Airport has reached
the forecast high of 111, which is higher than the old record of
110 set in 1991. There will be a more gradual cool down for the
northern Sacramento Valley, with triple digit heat expected into
Monday. Cloud cover will act to lower afternoon highs over the
mountains and foothills.
Some middle level monsoonal moisture is spreading into the area, with
some showers and thunderstorms developing over the Sierra and the
coastal range around the yolla Bolly and saddle Camp. Have also
expanded isolated showers and thunderstorms into the mountains
over western Plumas County and the Burney Basin, the rest of the
area is expected to remain dry. There could be some diminishing
showers in the mountains overnight. Lighting strikes in the
coastal range have been reported to have started some Forest
fires. This remains a concern through the weekend, though the
drier storms are expected before.
Additional monsoonal moisture along with a short wave moves in
Friday. This could bring some sprinkles into the eastern
Sacramento Valley and foothills Friday morning. More widespread
mountain precipitation is forecast for Friday afternoon and
evening. Dry air at the surface should prevent any significant
precipitation into the valley. The mountains could see some
locally heavy rain, especially over the weekend. Ek
extended discussion (monday through thursday)
One more day of Sierra thunderstorms possible on Monday as monsoon
moisture lingers across the area. Trough will develop offshore
with deeper moisture likely remaining east of the crest...ending
the chances for any convection by Tuesday. Dry weather should rule
for most of the week as area remains sandwiched between trough to
the west and high pressure to the east. Temperatures will be
within a few degrees of normal for the week as airmass cools and
onshore flow strengthens. Ceo
VFR conditions next 24 hours for taf sites. Possible local visibility
restrictions near current fires due to smoke. Winds generally less
than 10-15 kts for taf sites. Wind gusts of 25-30 kts possible
in vicinity of Delta.