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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sacramento California
300 PM PST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Synopsis...
dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

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Discussion...
high amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over interior norcal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of cirrus/cs will continue to flow
over the area over the next 24 hours. This will help to hinder
valley fog development tonight but some brief patchy light fog
possible in the southern SAC/northern San Joaquin Valley Friday
morning.

Frontal system nearing 130w is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is
aimed into the pacnw Friday. Southern portion of front will bring
a threat of some light precip to the far northwest California coast and
coastal interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not
expected to reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore
and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
California. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Pch

Extended discussion (monday through thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into norcal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

Ceo

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Aviation...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

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Sto watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
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