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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sacramento California
335 am PST Sat Feb 6 2016

Synopsis...
dry weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

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Discussion...
a weakening surface front is moving into far northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to
develop in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not
expected to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by
late morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the valley from around i80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
northern California, with 70s across much of the valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. Ek

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extended discussion (wednesday through saturday)

Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime
highs Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At
this time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper
ridge deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models
diverge a bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal
system. Only the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the
forecast area while the European model (ecmwf) mostly splits the system before it
moves inland. The Gem lifts the system to the north. For
now...have put in slight precip chances across the northern and
west side mountains. No matter what the outcome...should at least
see cooler daytime temperatures although highs Friday should still
come in at least a few degrees above normal. Models indicating
that the upper trough axis will have shifted into the Great Basin
by Saturday so a few Sierra showers not out of the question but
again model inconsistencies make for low confidence.
&&

Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin Valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.



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Sto watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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