Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
859 am PDT Sat Mar 15 2014
warm and dry weather through the weekend under high pressure. A
weak system passes to the north on Monday, with the primary impact
being breezy north winds Monday through Tuesday. Another weak
system passes to the north late next week.
Short term discussion (today through tuesday)...
a ridge of high pressure will remain over the area today with high
warming to near 80 degrees. The ridge will begin to flatten out on
Sunday as a weak weather system moves into the Pacific northwest.
Temperatures may cool slightly over the far north with little
change to slight warming expected over the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin valleys. That system will bring a slight
chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday morning for the
northern mountains...otherwise most places will just stay dry.
Winds will turn northerly behind that system for Monday and
Tuesday to bring breezy conditions to the region.
A quick look at this weekend's record highs (which are looking
just out of reach):
SAC exec 82 (2007) 83 (2007)
downtown SAC 85 (2004) 86 (2004)
Stockton 82 (2007)87 (2007)
modesto81 (2007)87 (2007)
Extended discussion (wednesday through saturday)
Medium range models are trending to a drier forecast through the
extended period. While the operational run of the GFS was bringing
a stronger wave through on Wednesday in yesterday's runs, it too
is now showing more progression with the wave - skirting it by
to our north. Progs similar in holding weak ridge over the area
late in the week with drier nwly flow aloft.
VFR conds nxt 24 hrs with lgt sfc winds.