Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sacramento California 
402 PM PDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
a low pressure system along the northwest coast will bring a 
slight chance of showers to northern Shasta County tonight and 
tomorrow...dry elsewhere. Warmer weather returns late in the 
week. 


&& 


Short term discussion... 


Upper low continues to spin near the Oregon/Washington coast. 
There is not much moisture with this system with precipitable water values 
between 0.50-0.75 inches. Despite this lack of moisture a line of 
showers is developing near Montana. Shasta and will skim northern 
Shasta County through the evening. Winds are gusting between 
30-35 miles per hour through the Delta extending east to Stockton. These 
winds should diminish towards morning. 


Upper low will slowly shift east through Oregon tomorrow keeping 
the best shower chances north of the area...still slight shower 
chances over the northern mountains of Shasta County during the morning. 
Temperatures will warm a few degrees into the low 80's...but 
remain around 5 degrees below normal. Low will move northeast into 
the northern rockies on Thursday with possible breezy north winds on 
the backside of the system. Temperatures will warm to near normal 
readings in the middle/upper 80's. Upper ridge will build over norcal 
on Friday with temperatures warming into the low 90's with clear 
conditions. 


&& 


Extended discussion (saturday through tuesday) 


High pressure will strengthen by the end of the week 
leading to above normal temperatures for interior norcal. 
Saturday is expected to be the hottest day with some valley sites 
warming into the upper 90s. Another trough over the eastern 
Pacific will cause a cooling trend early next week and may bring a 
slight chance of light rain to far northern California. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions dominate as an upper level low moves through the 
area today into Wednesday. Southwest winds 12-25 kts with gusts 
up to 30 kts through the Delta and 10-18 with gusts around 20 kts 
in the valley and gusts up to 50 kts over ridges. Showers and 
thunderstorms are possible over Shasta County this afternoon/evening. 
Winds will lessen overnight. Stratus in the Delta and low clouds 
around Sacramento (especially banked up against the nearby 
foothills) may occur between 12-18z bringing areas of MVFR and 
local IFR conditions Wednesday morning. 




&& 


Sto watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$