Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
915 PM PDT Monday Jul 27 2015
dry weather continues this week with temperatures returning to
well above average as high pressure strengthens. Increasing
monsoon moisture may lead to a chance of mountain thunderstorms
by the end of the week.
High pressure building over the region the next couple of days
will help to heat up the region. The first in a number of days
above 100 degrees starts tomorrow in the Central Valley. Hot
temperatures through the end of the week with the north end of the
valley peaking out around 110 Wednesday through Friday and
Sacramento region peaking around 105 Wednesday and Thursday. We
might be able to get a decent Delta breeze Thursday night and a
return of some decent amount of stratus to the Bay to help cool
the Sacramento region down slightly for Friday. Northerly winds
but north that strong will continue most of the weak up until
Monsoonal moisture may return to the region by Friday and that
could have some impact on temperatures depending upon the amount
of clouds that come our way and the timing of the clouds.
Extended discussion (friday through monday)
Gradual cooling trend begins Friday as ridge weakens slightly.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees each day into early next
week with highs returning to near normal for most of the area by
Sunday/Monday. Low triple digits likely to continue across
northern SAC valley through Monday though. Coastal influence will
increase with strengthening Delta breeze bringing cooler
temperatures (80s) to that area.
Models continue to show a northward surge of monsoonal moisture
for Friday into early next week. This would allow for the return
of mountain thunderstorms each day from Friday through at least
next Monday. Model differences remain though in degree of moisture
return and coverage of any convection which leads to some
uncertainty in the forecast. GFS most aggressive and hints at a
few showers reaching the valley while European model (ecmwf) on the drier side. For
now, have not made major changes to going forecast with low chance
probability of precipitation across higher elevations. Ceo
VFR conditions next 24 hours for taf sites. Possible visibility
restrictions near current fires (lowell, wragg) due to smoke.
Breezy northerly winds with gusts to 20kts possible through
Tuesday for northern and western side of SAC valley.