Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
311 am PST Sat Feb 13 2016
dry and mild weather through early next week with well above
normal temperatures. Wetter and cooler weather pattern expected
middle to late next week.
a dry upper level trough is currently moving through the region.
Skies have largely cleared out behind the trough this morning,
allowing patchy fog to develop once again develop in the Central
Valley mainly south of Oroville. Similar to the last several
mornings, some of this fog may become locally dense by sunrise,
but shouldn't be widespread enough to cause major issues.
A northwesterly shortwave trough may bring a few light showers to
the far northern California mountains Sunday. Otherwise, dry weather is
expected through this weekend into early next week as high
pressure rebuilds over California. The Sunday-Monday-Tuesday
period looks to be the warmest days in this stretch, and it
wouldn't be surprising to see some temperatures records broken the
next few days.
Locally breezy north to northeast winds are also forecast to
develop Sunday into Monday. These winds are likely to favor the
western Sacramento Valley and SW-NE oriented Sierra canyons. North
winds may also bring adiabatic compressional heating to the
northern Sacramento Valley.
Extended discussion (wednesday through saturday)
GFS/European model (ecmwf) now in better agreement bringing a return of wet weather
to interior norcal later Wednesday into Thursday with some
significant impacts possible in the northern Sierra above 5000 to
6000 feet due to heavy snow. Ridging forecast in the operational
model runs to return Friday into Saturday, though enough ensemble
members bring some weak waves through to maintain a mention of
slight chance or chance for precipitation in the forecast.
Upper ridge centered offshore over the eastern Pacific builds into
norcal today. VFR conditions expected to continue across the area
except for local MVFR/IFR/LIFR visibilities in the Central Valley
south of kmyv until about 18z. Northerly surface winds 10-15 kts
forecast to develop through the Sacramento Valley after 18z.