Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
400 am PDT Tue Mar 11 2014
building high pressure will result in dry weather and milder
temperatures for the rest of the week. Breezy to strong northerly
winds will continue into tonight.
surface high pressure building into Oregon is increasing the
north-south pressure gradient across the region. The mfr to SAC
gradient is currently around 11 mbs. Winds increased along the
western edge of the SAC valley and across Southern Lake County
around midnight and are presently gusting to around 35-45 mph in a
The north-south gradient peaks out around midday then gradually
weakens into this evening. However, the east-west gradient
tightens tonight, so the focus of stronger winds will shift into
the northern Sierra. Gradients relax Wednesday for lighter winds
across the region.
Mild temperatures expected across norcal through the remainder of
the week though mountain valleys sheltered from the winds will see
cool morning lows.
Extended discussion (saturday through tuesday)...
upper level ridging spreads eastward into the region late this
week with temperatures peaking over the weekend. Well above normal
temperatures are expected with low 80s across much of the valley.
Confidence is lower for next week with models diverging on Monday.
The models are 90 degrees out of phase with European model (ecmwf) showing northwest flow
aloft while the GFS shows SW flow with a cutoff low offshore that
creeps toward socal on Tuesday. Either way, the forecast should
stay dry, but wind directions may be tricky. Jclapp
high pressure dominates with VFR today. Increasing low level wind
today and continuing tonight, especially surface-030 above ground level. In Central
Valley, local northerly surface wind up to 30 kts with gusts up to
40 kts today. Strongest wind expected from late this morning
through afternoon from I-80 northward. Local north to east surface wind
gusts 40 to 50 kts probable over Sierra and coastal range, peaking
late this afternoon and tonight. Jclapp
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Carquinez Strait and
Delta...central Sacramento Valley...Clear Lake/Southern Lake
County...northern Sacramento Valley...southern Sacramento Valley.